PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[VancouverIslandSouth]

14 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Shawnigan had a ridiculous 20.37” in November 2006.  17.02” of rain. 

What's it up to so far this month?

[Anti Marine Layer]

15 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

There’s a better than bad chance we’ve already had our “winter of the century.”

And barring a miracle of modern science, it’s the only fresh century any of us will see.

 

 

Still got 2022 to 2099.

[Cloud]

6 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Sorry I totally lied but I needed to share this... Reverse convergence zone in the lee(?) of the Olympics over the ocean. Easterly flow doing work. iirc we had one of those in Dec 2009

Been seeing a few of these in recent years. We had one as recent as last year. I remembered posting something about it last fall/winter. Quite fascinating. 

[snow_wizard]

Crazy blocking on the 12z ECMWF.  That's a good thing even if the goodies start out in the East the trough will eventually end up over us.

[snow_wizard]

57 minutes ago, Phil said:

I don’t see how you can possibly say this.

Could certainly be a decent winter but there should be a concrete reason to call for a “winter of the century” on November 26th,

Again....I'm just basing that on what we've observed this autumn in the actual weather that has happened.   That cannot be ignored, but then again the stuff you've been talking about can't be ignored either.

[snow_wizard]

46 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

There’s a better than bad chance we’ve already had our “winter of the century.”

And barring a miracle of modern science, it’s the only fresh century any of us will see.

 

 

I think the chances are zero we've seen our winter of the century up till now.  There hasn't been a winter anywhere close to the greatest ones of the 20th century.  And it's only less than a quarter of the way into the century.  Solar grand minimum has yet to bottom out as well.

[ShawniganLake]

31 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

What's it up to so far this month?

~14.5”. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the chances are zero we've seen our winter of the century up till now.  There hasn't been a winter anywhere close to the greatest one of the 20th century.  And it's only less than a quarter of the way into the century.  Solar grand minimum has yet to bottom out as well.

Our access to Arctic air gets further and further cut off by the year.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Ah I knew the night shift run was too good to be true…

Let's just wait and see.  As I've said....no matter how you slice it the blocking being shown on all models is a good thing regardless of where it starts out.  Blocks always rearrange.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Our access to Arctic air gets further and further away by the year.

No it doesn't.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Mild morning here…0.04” since midnight and 8.79” for the month. 

I'm well over 10 inches now.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No it doesn't.

Could've fooled me. If you lived in this location it would make more sense over the last 5 years.

Have you ever gone 5 years without an arctic event?

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm well over 10 inches now.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, catnip said:

Of course it is Mr. Snow_wizard. 

 

This is 2021, the #yearofextremes

 

Anything is possible. Even Feetz of snow for everyone.

 

Buckle up! It's going to be a wild winter!!!!

All I said is there are some notably cold members on this run.  I said nothing about the mean.  Geeze.

[Cloud]

Meteorological winter starts in 5 days. “Winter of the century” starts then.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Could've fooled me. If you lived in this location it would make more sense over the last 5 years.

Have you ever gone 5 years without an arctic event?

How many times have Justin and I mentioned the incredibly lame period from 1937-38 through 1945-46?  Things kind of turned around after that did they not?

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Meteorological winter starts in 5 days. “Winter of the century” starts then.

Nobody (including me) said that.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

How many times have Justin and I mentioned the incredibly lame period from 1937-38 through 1945-46?  Things kind of turned around after that did they not?

Were there zero sub-freezing highs for 5 straight winters during that lousy stretch?

This, combined with the huge number of 90F summer temps leads me to believe something has fundamentally changed for this location and it’s very bad.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Were there zero sub-freezing highs for 5 straight winters during that lousy stretch?

There was only one good winter in that entire stretch...1942-43.  There was also some fake cold in Jan 1942 that may have yielded a sub freezing high for you.  Most people on this forum would have loathed that period.  It was actually a lot worse for many places than the last 6 years or so.

[Cloud]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Just based on the signs alone I think this has a shot at being the winter of the century so far.  That feeling is a bit dampened by negative QBO / cold ENSO aspect, but we have overcome that for cold / blocky winters before.  No doubt we have checked many of the boxes that lead up to some of the all time greats.  Can't wait to see what happens.

 

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Nobody (including me) said that.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z runs went the wrong direction as they handle the energy south of the Aleutians and eventual cut-off low less favorably not shunting it southward as quickly. IF we were to see that change with either the Aleutian ridge sliding east a touch faster, or the ridge over us backing further offshore and we see this on all models/ensembles a solid ridge merger will occur and we will go into the freezer. With 00z runs tonight watch model trends past 4 runs for Day 4.5 - 6. We're at least moving ahead where a possible ridge merger could occur before Day 7 now. I am cautiously optimistic. Onto 00z!

 

00z GFS in 8 hours

00z ECMWF in 10 hours 10 minutes

 

Oh, and yeah the Intoxicated In-law in 2 hours

 

[snow_wizard]

No doubt that 7 to 10 day period is still far from settled.  The way the two blocking pieces will come together is still vague.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

 

 

I said based on one set of criteria it could be a huge winter, but the other set puts it in doubt.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

12z runs went the wrong direction as they handle the energy south of the Aleutians and eventual cut-off low less favorably not shunting it southward as quickly. IF we were to see that change with either the Aleutian ridge sliding east a touch faster, or the ridge over us backing further offshore and we see this on all models/ensembles a solid ridge merger will occur and we will go into the freezer. With 00z runs tonight watch model trends past 4 runs for Day 4.5 - 6. We're at least moving ahead where a possible ridge merger could occur before Day 7 now. I am cautiously optimistic. Onto 00z!

 

00z GFS in 8 hours

00z ECMWF in 10 hours 10 minutes

 

Oh, and yeah the Intoxicated In-law in 2 hours

 

We should all know the drill by now on these things.  It happens like this every time.  The pieces are there.  In the short term more of the Western ridge ends up over the ocean than earlier runs.  Often a good sign.  People also need to remember that major blocking is good regardless of where it starts out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Devastating trendz.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

We should all know the drill by now on these things.  It happens like this every time.  The pieces are there.  In the short term more of the Western ridge ends up over the ocean than earlier runs.  Often a good sign.  People also need to remember that major blocking is good regardless of where it starts out.

This isn't going to work out. Phil says Alaska is to cold. 

[snow_wizard]

It finally went above 50 degrees.  No doubt the past 10 days were cooler overall than I would have expected going into it.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I said based on one set of criteria it could be a huge winter, but the other set puts it in doubt.

Couldn’t this be said about every winter? Even going into a nino, we typically gather around 1968-69 for warmth.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This time of year is reminding me of 2016. An incredibly mild and damp fall. Everything is still surprisingly green. And muddy dogs!

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

That guy looks like a real barrel of fun!

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This isn't going to work out. Phil says Alaska is to cold. 

Hey, once in a blue moon that motherf*cker actually gets dislodged. Will it happen this year, though?

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Couldn’t this be said about every winter? Even going into a nino, we typically gather around 1968-69 for warmth.

I'm just saying from an observed weather point of view things look to be on the right track.  Things have been quite out of the ordinary in the precip department in particular.  Many others have pointed this out as well.  Most years don't have the wettest fall on record.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Phil said:

Hey, once in a blue moon that motherf*cker actually gets dislodged. Will it happen this year, though?

Obviously with all of the blocking coming up the AK cold will be a moot point anyway.  Big change coming according to all models.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This time of year is reminding me of 2016. An incredibly mild and damp fall. Everything is still surprisingly green. And muddy dogs!

Seems like 2016 worked out pretty well...

[Anti Marine Layer]

What Cloud said seems to be obscured by a cloud.

[snow_wizard]

The EPS control gets pretty late in the run, and the mean puts us in -PNA.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

What Cloud said seems to be obscured by a cloud.

I noticed that too.  Not sure why his post disappeared on the reply.

[snow_wizard]

BTW...the weeklies put us in a -PNA -EPO pattern around Christmas.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW...the weeklies put us in a -PNA -EPO pattern around Christmas.

Yeah, but who wants to wait until then.  I don't. I want Cold and SNOW! before the 10th.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z EPS must be a flaming hot pile of Christmas cheer as no one has posted it.