SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The 18z CFS was insane for January. Unquestionably a Jan 1950 redux it's showing. Do you have a link to the site you use for that or is it on weatherbell? 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 ICON is way north with Monday's system. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Not real progressive. Borderline Rand Paul. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 3 hours ago, Outpost54 said: Tbh I think people are under estimating the new GFS. Don't forget it was upgraded like a year ago. Ever since then, it has pretty clearly led the way with almost every "extreme" event we've had in the last year, while the Euro has played catch-up. Remember the GFS picked up on our absurd heat wave first, and the big snow storm in February. I don't think it's totally insane anymore to give the GFS more credit than the euro in cases like this. The new upgrade seems to be a genuine Improvement. I disagree. The GFS D5 z500 skill scores are on par with where the ECMWF was in 2008. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Do you have a link to the site you use for that or is it on weatherbell? Weatherbell. There are others, but the graphics aren't as pretty and they don't have snowfall. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, Phil said: I disagree. Nice to see both models are clearly improving at any rate. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The 18z CFS was insane for January. Unquestionably a Jan 1950 redux it's showing. Очень холодно, как же в Сибири! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Day 3 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: ICON is way north with Monday's system. Looks better than both the 12z and 18z though. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: It definitely was great for January but it came at the expense of Christmas time. Which raises an interesting question: Would you rather get a white Christmas or a January 1950 redux? It would have to be more than just a white Christmas to choose it over the other. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulb/eugene Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Just now, paulb/eugene said: Очень холодно, как же в Сибири! Моя Жена, она из Иркутска 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 3 (Past 4 runs) That block is bloody impressive. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Ruh roh... I've been looking at this one as a wild card anyway. Even a little bit would be awesome to get things going. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 GFS blinks first? Day 4 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Obviously how well that clipper digs in late in the week is going to have big implications for lowland snow chances. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Initial trough doesn't dig as well so it's a fair amount warmer... I don't think it's settled yet. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 We all knew the EURO was going to win the Day 4-7 model solution battle. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 So far this run is a massive step backwards. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Day 5 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 I think I'm going to vomit. jk. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Ouch. 00z GFS is no bueno across the board for the earlier stuff. See how it goes in the mid/long range. In the overall scheme it's only a small change. This thing has a very tight gradient and could still end up colder than this run. It will still get chilly regardless. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said: Моя Жена, она из Иркутска Is her name vladdy? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: I think I'm going to vomit. jk. It'll be fine. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I think I'm going to vomit. jk. #1992 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Going to come in like the EURO/GEM. Figures the GFS would cave. Was fun while it lasted though! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Too thowzand ande zeven 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Day 6 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: Too thowzand ande zeven 1933/34 is probably the better analog. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Going to come in like the EURO/GEM. Figures the GFS would cave. Was fun while it lasted though! The GFS was always on its own. And it’s a subpar model. Performs worse than the CMC and UKMET @ 500mb. If it were the Euro sticking its neck out this would have been more interesting to follow. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 3 hours ago, Cloud said: Spokane has always been an area of my interest for quite a while without needing to leave the state. Weather-wise I think it’s great but in general, I think the Seattle area is a shiitshow. Not what it was 20-30 years ago. I’m also at a point where I don’t want to be on pins and needles looking at the models constantly for a shot of cold air, then to have it be completely marginal. we can get marginal sh*t over here in E WA too, but yeah it does snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, Phil said: Too thowzand ande zeven You’re going to look like a genius or the village idiot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Still a very decent run with surface gradients favorable for well below normal temps. The second snow chance pans out on this. Hopefully we'll see some support going forward. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, Phil said: Too thowzand ande zeven Way too much blocking for that on all the models. You saw the weeklies yesterday I'm sure. AK cold dislodged and heads south. I guess you're going to go down with the ship on the 2007 call. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Somehow still shows snow Monday morning... The cold still arrives. You have to look at surface gradients with these things as well. They are very favorable. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, SalemDuck said: You’re going to look like a genius or the village idiot. I’d rather be the village idiot if it means we avoid repeating a zonal snoozefest like 1999. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Day 7 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Pretty hard to be very upset about the big picture at this point. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 2021/22 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: I’d rather be the village idiot if it means we avoid a boring, zonal s**tfest of a winter. Please tell me you have analogs besides 2007. That is really short sighted if you don't. As I've mentioned that November was totally different here observed weather wise. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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