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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

Meatyorologist

By Meatyorologist
in West of the Rockies

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jakerepp
jakerepp

Hey all, guess I really am only a winter weather poster. I'd like to introduce Cooper, who has already requested a weather station for Christmas. He came a bit early but he's doing well! Any

Outpost54
Outpost54

Stop posting Oregon only maps. No one ******* cares. The WA map covers 99% of this forum's members, but the ones you keep posting cut out half of them for no reason. I'm so glad you never get snow. Yo

Phishy Wx
Phishy Wx

Long time lurker, first time poster.  Figured it was a good time to jump in.  I also bought a snow blower last week. ((live in E WA by way of CA and previously the east coast (SC,TN, GA and NH) and no

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Skagit Weather Veteran

Skagit Weather

Posted
Posted

The 00z Euro is quite moist for the end of the month, especially for northern areas. BLI is at 8.67" on the month and its record wettest month all time is 11.60 from November 1990. The Euro has them there by Saturday evening, with another 2" to follow before the end of the month.

  • Rain 1

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Nope 

Actually yup.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

'Tis the Season for extrapolation. Day 11+ could be phenomenal.

The ECMWF looks like a winner to me.  The ridge will explode much further east then the GFS.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Gradient Keeper Grand Master

Gradient Keeper

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF looks like a winner to me.  The ridge will explode much further east then the GFS.

Yep, and with a strong kona low. Turkey night we'll have the ridge merger near or just before Day 7. That'll be nice.

00z GFS (Turkey night) in 68 hours 25 minutes
00z ECMWF(Turkey night) in 70 hours 35 minutes

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

The 00z Euro is quite moist for the end of the month, especially for northern areas. BLI is at 8.67" on the month and its record wettest month all time is 11.60 from November 1990. The Euro has them there by Saturday evening, with another 2" to follow before the end of the month.

And we all know what happened in 1990.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
Just now, MossMan said:

It rained a lot. Then it snowed a lot. Including on Christmas Day! 

And it got COLD!

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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TigerWoodsLibido Grand Master

TigerWoodsLibido

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

No what happened 

Our most recent white Christmas.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF looks like a winner to me.  The ridge will explode much further east then the GFS.

Verbatim, I agree with you.

But we’re also looking out to the middle of week-2 at this point. This isn’t as stable an evolution as some guidance may suggest.

Flushing out a vortex can be a messy sea of unstable equilibria.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

00z compared to 12z at hr174.

One more shift of this magnitude and the east wind will start blowing at Rob’s house.

F492B4E7-85E8-425F-9795-5F5478BD97A4.png

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Verbatim, I agree with you.

But we’re also looking out to the middle of week-2 at this point. This isn’t as stable an evolution as some guidance may suggest.

Flushing out a vortex can be a messy sea of unstable equilibria.

Who are you???

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Who are you???

I have PTSD. Completely lost faith in the -30C isotherm ever breaching the 3rd runway. :( 

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Verbatim, I agree with you.

But we’re also looking out to the middle of week-2 at this point. This isn’t as stable an evolution as some guidance may suggest.

Flushing out a vortex can be a messy sea of unstable equilibria.

I agree this is a very tricky evolution.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

Yeah the wave axes are definitely improved this run. Much more continental influence, right from the jump even.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

So far the EPS seems to be in lock step with its operational.  

Nice improvement vs 12z.  Much better placement than the GFS as well.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

And that was a few weeks after the I-90 bridge sunk over Lake Washington

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mynorthwest.com/150242/bizarre-lake-washington-disaster-struck-25-years-ago/amp/

And that was in conjunction with huge flooding.  I witnessed an old trailer park near Monroe being destroyed by the Snohomish River.  There is often chaos around here before big cold waves.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Snownerd3000 Grand Master

Snownerd3000

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

And that was in conjunction with huge flooding.  I witnessed an old trailer park near Monroe being destroyed by the Snohomish River.  There is often chaos around here before big cold waves.

extremes beget extremes.  Historic heat, big time flooding.  Lets through a once every 30 year winter into the mix while we're here.

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

This run was less progressive/more continental right from the jump. Even by D5.

Usually when the EPS makes a systemic move early on like that, it’s indicative of a legitimate correction. Not always, but usually.

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TigerWoodsLibido Grand Master

TigerWoodsLibido

Posted
Posted

EC ensemble full run:

1748823652_ECensemble500mb.gif

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

The Arctic is actually the coldest domain relative to average at the moment.

That almost never happens these days. 

C7BCA361-1F2A-40EE-8667-FD573C1522E5.png

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

2m temp anomalies for the next 10 days on the 00z ECMWF.

The Arctic is crazy cold. It’s usually roasting up there in the autumn.

A36ED24B-A080-44DF-94CE-FEAE079CD8D5.png

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

I actually managed to pull off an average low of 33.4 over the past week.  I certainly didn't expect that.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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