PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Phil]

Contrary to some recent rhetoric on here, ridging over Alaska is, in fact, a good thing.

12z compared to 06z.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

That’s nutz 

[MossMan]

16 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I just realized the disaster it would add to places already flooded if we had arctic outflow and those places still flooded froze solid. 

Happened in 1990 around the north sound, fir Island still had major flood waters from a dike that had failed during the big AR and then it froze solid. 

[AlTahoe]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

That is still 2 weeks out.   There is no trending yet... its still model chaos with the upcoming pattern change.   The next run could have 1,000 miles west again.     It will be a few more days before we get into the trending stage.

The Oracle was correct. I will now take two steps back from the ledge. The 12z has come back to its senses.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Just now, Phil said:

Contrary to some recent rhetoric on here, ridging over Alaska is, in fact, a good thing.

12z compared to 06z.

Phil, you are totally missing the point.  When we see cold in Alaska, obviously it is troughing and we arent cold, BUT when the pattern does set up with a ridge in the Gulf and Alaska, THEN there is a great cold pool to come down toward us.  So it can be a good thing to see record cold in Alaska if and when we get the right pattern.  Every meteorologist in our area will tell you that, and they know our area better than you do.

[LowerGarfield]

3 hours ago, Everleigh said:

lol This is how I feel too. I love the excitement and the model riding this time of year, but I understand very little of the maps and colors and words. I am trying though! 

When I lived in Cannon Beach in Feb 2014, we had a friend at the conference center there who was praying for snow. We all laughed at him but a day or two later it started snowing and we got a few inches. We just expected a dusting so my now wife and I took the bus to seaside to shop at Safeway. Then it started accumulating really quickly within an hour or so and we got stuck. Friend of ours was going to rescue us but his boss, a safety inspector said it was not safe. Other friends of ours tried to save us with their 4X drive but had to turn around. We stayed at a stranger's house who our boss knew, along with some other jr high kids at the school. Her kids and husband were stuck in Cannon Beach and stayed at the jr high kid's house. We spent the night and came in late to work with a note.

Moral of the story, pray for snow, but don't travel if you do so.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Contrary to some recent rhetoric on here, ridging over Alaska is, in fact, a good thing.

12z compared to 06z.

I never said it wasn’t, but 99% of the time it’s mild here regardless...

[ShawniganLake]

GFS shows several feet of snow here after day 10.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

HOLY SHEET

[SnowWillarrive]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

We could be headed for a snowy December. As long as global warming doesn’t blunt a favorable pattern. 

[Skagit Weather]

I'll take an order of the 12z GFS please.

0.39" overnight and 7.36" on the month.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Right…

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Right…

Still going…

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still cold at the end. Best run of the year so far. LOCK IT IN.

[AlTahoe]

6 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Still going…

 

 

I swear to god if the GFS takes this away from me........I will go outside and air punch mother nature right in her stupid face. 

[FroYoBro]

Long range on the 12z GFS is nuts for snow potential. 

[Phil]

32 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Phil, you are totally missing the point.  When we see cold in Alaska, obviously it is troughing and we arent cold, BUT when the pattern does set up with a ridge in the Gulf and Alaska, THEN there is a great cold pool to come down toward us.  So it can be a good thing to see record cold in Alaska if and when we get the right pattern.  Every meteorologist in our area will tell you that, and they know our area better than you do.

This is repeated on here a lot, but there’s little if any evidence to substantiate it. 

1) Alaska is not the source for arctic air west of the cascades to begin with, and absent a blocking high, said domain is frigid every winter.

2) AK vortex/+EPO (by itself) does nothing to build a more favorable longwave pattern for cold delivery in the PNW, and can actually hinder it. The most +EPO Niña winters are also the warmest in the PNW. The upcoming blowtorch is, in fact, a direct result of said AK vortex.

3) Yes, there are cases where the inception of rossby wave amplification, with precisely the right array of initial conditions, has “dislodged” the AK vortex into the PNW region. But how often does that happen? Very rarely! Only a handful of cases in the last 50 years. The majority of PNW arctic blasts in the satellite era were *not* preceded by raging +EPO.

[Snownerd3000]

32 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

This might be a wild card this winter.

[Snownerd3000]

3 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

I swear to god if the GFS takes this away from me........I will go outside and air punch mother nature right in her stupid face. 

Keep in mind this is the first salvo too.  Long range continues to show additional waves of cold air coming 2nd half of the month.  

 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

5 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

I swear to god if the GFS takes this away from me........I will go outside and air punch mother nature right in her stupid face. 

You would get buried if this verifies.

[joelgombiner]

The end of this run gives Seattle 3 days of continuous 20-degree snow, followed by a sunny day in the teens. 

[Phil]

53 minutes ago, Phil said:

12z GFS has less GOA vortex by D8/D9. Solution should be improved from 06z.

Said this before the good stuff showed up. A fun solution was evident early on, precisely *because* the GOA vortex was compromised relative to 06z.

But whatever, false prophecy is fun too.

[RentonHill]

5 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

The end of this run gives Seattle 3 days of continuous 20-degree snow, followed by a sunny day in the teens. 

[Snownerd3000]

4 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

The end of this run gives Seattle 3 days of continuous 20-degree snow, followed by a sunny day in the teens. 

Make it so

[TT-SEA]

Snow level this morning...

[RentonHill]

Model trend last 12 runs for GEFS at hr 252

[AlTahoe]

9 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

You would get buried if this verifies.

Hopefully. I am ready to move on from mt biking. Haven't even put my snow tires on yet. 

[Phil]

That’s a monstrous +NAO.

[Blizzard777]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Lolz

 

[RentonHill]

i hope Rob's dentist appointment went well

[SouthHillFrosty]

The swamp is living up to its name

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

 

That is such a good movie.

Released in summer 1980. Bad analog.

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

 

LOVE that movie!! 

[Front Ranger]

26 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Lolz

Da swamp.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Wow

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM doesn't look as good. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Snow level this morning...

Nice

[MWG]

I was so excited for that snow was only 0.5 for the day 

[MossMan]

Some random solid chunks falling from the sky currently. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GEM doesn't look as good. 

That’s a good thing. If the GEM jumps on board, we know it isn’t happening.