PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[LowerGarfield]

It was sunny twenty minutes ago and now it's as foggy as every like out of the twilight zone.

[MossMan]

Mower conversion to plow status will be commencing this weekend. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, MossMan said:

Mower conversion to plow status will be commencing this weekend. 

Trying to remember if the annual mossman plow announcement is a good or bad jinx for upcoming events. 

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  The GFS makes it look so easy.  Just a perfect progression.  This is why I was very happy to see the ECMWF split the GOA trough at about the same time the GFS has been doing it.  That is the key.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Trying to remember if the annual mossman plow announcement is a good or bad jinx for upcoming events. 

I need to break snow shovel.

Sh*t’s gonna get expensive…

[TacomaWaWx]

0.07” so far today. 

[snow_wizard]

31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oof this would be big time up Here... 

And here.

[LowerGarfield]

Forgive my bad grammar in my last post. That's what I get for checking the models and the forum while working. Shh don't tell my employer.

[snow_wizard]

28 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

 

Day 15, no sign of block breaking down 

Besides that some seriously cold air is about to enter.

[The Swamp]

Tim, when will it warmth 41 degrees and rain once the snow starts flying?

[snow_wizard]

The favorable MJO forecast adds a little bit of confidence to what the models are showing.  The GFS and ECMWF both like a 6 / 7 MJO wave in early December.  Pretty rare for them to agree so closely on that feature.

[Kolk1604]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Besides that some seriously cold air is about to enter.

It's always a good sign when it's now and not february!

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The favorable MJO forecast adds a little bit of confidence to what the models are showing.  The GFS and ECMWF both like a 6 / 7 MJO wave in early December.  Pretty rare for them to agree so closely on that feature.

Also the fact that Phil was not on board.

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

It's always a good sign when it's now and not february!

The February events have been pretty top notch lately.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

30 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I need to break snow shovel.

Sh*t’s gonna get expensive…

Better hope that your replacement snow shovel isn't stuck on a cargo ship anchored off some port somewhere waiting to be let in.  

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The February events have been pretty top notch lately.

I don't like them cause you know its the end of Winter. But if we get multiple events and the grand finale in February I'll take it 

And last years wasn't that great for me. fhe east wind ate most of my snow. Still got 5 to 6 inches though.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I don't like them cause you know its the end of Winter. But if we get multiple events and the grand finale in February I'll take it 

And last years wasn't that great for me. fhe east wind ate most of my snow. Still got 5 to 6 inches though.

We're due for a winter where south of Seattle wins on snowfall.  They do happen.

[LowerGarfield]

I'm right on the borderline of snow/no snow tonight.

https://twitter.com/NWSSpokane/status/1462924160653430784/photo/1

[ShawniganLake]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

We're due for a winter where south of Seattle wins on snowfall.  They do happen.

Meh. BC lower mainland hasn’t exactly been rolling in powder the last few years. 

[TT-SEA]

Just started sprinkling here now just as it gets dark... but the band of rain is moving through quickly.    It was dry and partly sunny at times all day and we made into the low 50s.   That is a win in my book!

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Meh. BC lower mainland hasn’t exactly been rolling in powder the last few years. 

YVR area and the south Portland suburbs down to about Corvallis are the most due in the region for a significant snowstorm at the moment. Eugene is still paying off their 2/25 debt a little bit.

I'd say the entirety of western WA is very UNdue, after the rough 2012-2016 stretch for most places, it's been more than made up for the last five winters.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

ALL ROADS LEAD TO WALGREENS

All roads lead to Fred Meyer.

[Phil]

No sober uncle tonight.  

[BLI snowman]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just started sprinkling here now just as it gets dark... but the band of rain is moving through quickly.    It was dry and partly sunny at times all day and we made into the low 50s.   That is a win in my book!

Topped out at 43 here. Shallow inversion!

[RentonHill]

18z GEFS

[Deweydog]

Sky has that it-might-snow-at-some-point-in-the-next-month look to it right now.

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Sky has that it-might-snow-at-some-point-in-the-next-month look to it right now.

Must be the sunset time

[T-Town]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Sky has that it-might-snow-at-some-point-in-the-next-month look to it right now.

Finally. 

[ShawniganLake]

23 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

YVR area and the south Portland suburbs down to about Corvallis are the most due in the region for a significant snowstorm at the moment. Eugene is still paying off their 2/25 debt a little bit.

I'd say the entirety of western WA is very UNdue, after the rough 2012-2016 stretch for most places, it's been more than made up for the last five winters.

My little corner of the PNW is definitely not due either. We’ve been killing it in the snow department the last while.  I’d guess we see some cold Nw flow at some point this winter. Which is good for the mainland but generally leaves the East side of the island high and dry. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Idk that we are really due. We did really well in February 2019, we are probably a bit overdue for a major snow event, last 12”+ storm we had was March 24, 2018.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Record low in Eugene for today was 19 in 2013, the season that just kept giving.

[Kolk1604]

Yo @snow_wizard number 26 work for you? Even the control is over 8 inches...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[T-Town]

https://twitter.com/wx_washington/status/1462869202130276352?s=21

[MossMan]

18 minutes ago, T-Town said:

https://twitter.com/wx_washington/status/1462869202130276352?s=21

I for one am all in! It’s go time!! 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

We're due for a winter where south of Seattle wins on snowfall.  They do happen.

Wasn’t the south sound ground zero during February 2021? Olympia especially got hammered but I know east of Tacoma it wasn’t as good.  We’ve done really well here overall minus January 2020 which was Seattle north. 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

YVR area and the south Portland suburbs down to about Corvallis are the most due in the region for a significant snowstorm at the moment. Eugene is still paying off their 2/25 debt a little bit.

I'd say the entirety of western WA is very UNdue, after the rough 2012-2016 stretch for most places, it's been more than made up for the last five winters.

Me thinks we’re not really due in western WA either but it’ll probably snow here anyways this winter. We’ve had some exceptional events in recent years since December 2016. 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Me thinks we’re not really due in western WA either but it’ll probably snow here anyways this winter. We’ve had some exceptional events in recent years since December 2016. 

Oh my area is due big time!! What is the color past Pepto? I want that!! 

[Anti Marine Layer]

White snow and white teeth both look great. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, MossMan said:

Oh my area is due big time!! What is the color past Pepto? I want that!! 

Lol Haven’t you had like atleast a foot of snow for like 5 years in a row now