PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO tells W. Oregon to f*ck off. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Did they give you some sort of huge travel voucher at least? That’s inexcusable.

It really is inexcusable.   We have flown on Alaska from Kona to Seattle and my wife has flown from Seattle to Minneapolis on a short-notice trip booked yesterday all since he has been stuck in Dallas which is one of the largest hubs in the country.  Just makes no sense.  

[Killahkarl]

Ecmwf has less snow totals cause its mostly a mix, sleet, or zr

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF clearly shows cold air this evening in the EPSL... but it starts warming up before dawn.  

I'll be interested to see if that actually happens.  We do have to remember the GFS was the first to show it being this cold tonight too.

[KingstonWX]

Some fluff on radar now....

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Killahkarl said:

Ecmwf has less snow totals cause its mostly a mix, sleet, or zr

Doesn't mean it's right.  This could easily go either way.

[GHweatherChris]

Temp holding at 32, and still have a 7” snow depth.

[jakerepp]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It really is inexcusable.   We have flown on Alaska from Kona to Seattle and my wife has flown from Seattle to Minneapolis on a short-notice trip booked yesterday all since he has been stuck in Dallas which is one of the largest hubs in the country.  Just makes no sense.  

Yeah I don't understand how he was stuck there for so long. A day or two, maybe, but not this long. Buy him a ticket on Delta or Southwest for God's sake. That's ridiculous.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EURO tells W. Oregon to f*ck off. 

Brutal N to S gradient again.  I think NW OR will eventually get hit good this winter though.

[Hawksfan2008]

925s aren’t impressive on the euro but certainly have the easterly component and favorable dew points east of puget sound. 

[RentonHill]

CMC Ens - ridge well established over us at day 10 and begins to retro 

[joelgombiner]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It really is inexcusable.   We have flown on Alaska from Kona to Seattle and my wife has flown from Seattle to Minneapolis on a short-notice trip booked yesterday all since he has been stuck in Dallas which is one of the largest hubs in the country.  Just makes no sense.  

I got stuck in Dallas a few days ago... flying American.  Seems to be a frequent experience this year. 

[Killahkarl]

When i pull up the ecmwf soundings on pivotal the heading says GDPS? Sum-ting-wong

 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

925s aren’t impressive on the euro but certainly have the easterly component and favorable dew points east of puget sound. 

But the main precip does not arrive until a few hours after that map time... and dewpoints go up into the low 30s when the heaviest moisture arrives.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF shows an overrunning event on Thursday... but clearly depicts a warm nose coming north quickly out here in the foothills on Thursday morning while the cold air remains entrenched still to the west and north. 

 

[RentonHill]

GEFS 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Brutal N to S gradient again.  I think NW OR will eventually get hit good this winter though.

GFS is much better. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows an overrunning event on Thursday... but clearly depicts a warm nose coming north quickly out here in the foothills on Thursday morning while the cold air remains entrenched still to the west and north. 

 

Could be our best chance to hit 50 this month. The valley should hit the mid-50s that day. 

[GHweatherChris]

Buzzkill Tim is back

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Buzzkill Tim is back

Sorry... sometimes I slip up and honestly assess the models.    I won't let it happen again.    

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Sorry... sometimes I slip up an honestly assess the models.    I won't let it happen again.    

Your self reflection is appreciated!!

[SeanNyberg]

42 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

This comment does not meet our community standards.

How so? 

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, SeanNyberg said:

How so? 

Sarcasm

[TT-SEA]

Thursday has lots of potential for the Hood Canal and from Everett northward... and Vancouver Island as well. 

[RentonHill]

Mountains

[SeanNyberg]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Sarcasm

Fair

[TT-SEA]

The Kuchera map on the 00Z ECMWF only shows 88 inches of snow in the next 6 days at Snoqualmie Pass.    

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Mountains

We posted at the same time... that is insanity for the mountains.   

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Mountains

Pretty great for everywhere but the usual misser-outs...

[RentonHill]

I wish they sorted these rows. Little changes but that’s fine

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Mountains

Brian in Leavenworth is going to get buried! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Thursday has lots of potential for the Hood Canal and from Everett northward... and Vancouver Island as well. 

From the beginning I've been waiting for a slam dunk huge event here, probably coming Wed night and Thursday .

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Brian in Leavenworth is going to get buried! 

Would be crazy for ellensburg to get a couple feet. I mean I know they can do it but feels like it’s been forever. My moms lived there since 2007 and i just can’t recall any weeks like that (I’m probably wrong)

[smerfylicious]

These easterlies out of Stevens pass are really kicking up. Gotta be over 30mph gusts!

[MossMan]

Meteorologist Stu Martin has a pretty good take on the upcoming week. 
https://youtu.be/dM0Jynoflzo

[smerfylicious]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Brian in Leavenworth is going to get buried! 

Skykomish gonna get buried too!

[snow_wizard]

That is one nasty firehose late next week on the ECMWF.  I hope that tones down a little bit going forward.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

Would be crazy for ellensburg to get a couple feet. I mean I know they can do it but feels like it’s been forever. My moms lived there since 2007 and i just can’t recall any weeks like that (I’m probably wrong)

Going to and from my cabin there was snow on ground the entire way from front door of my house to the cabin. Pretty cool.

[RentonHill]

Probably a resolution issue but interesting still: GEFS really wants the snow to happen. I know we’re so close we should stick to the operational but dgaf 

BFI goes from 6-10 inches for the 00z compared to 18z

 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Meteorologist Stu Martin has a pretty good take on the upcoming week. 
https://youtu.be/dM0Jynoflzo

You are going to send me down an Almost Live rabbit hole again.    I spent hours watching clips one night.