PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[seattleweatherguy]

Jay says. 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF is kind of ugly in the longer range.  Hopefully it will go back to more of an inversion type scenario on future runs.  Not saying that what it's showing would jeopardize our chances later in the month, but it's just a pattern I don't like and would bring some above normal temps.

[Deweydog]

The Euro looks like it checked the calendar.

[Cloud]

14 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Probably a resolution issue but interesting still: GEFS really wants the snow to happen. I know we’re so close we should stick to the operational but dgaf 

BFI goes from 6-10 inches for the 00z compared to 18z

 

Great!

[snow_wizard]

We have some real cold to work with tomorrow night.  Single digits in the Kittitas Valley, 8 at Stampede Pass, 13 at Denny Creek, and 18 in Lester.  Given the precip intensity tomorrow night I'm going for some places getting at least 4 inches.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The Euro looks like it checked the calendar.

It does look like a big turd late in the run.  Could easily be wrong though.

[snow_wizard]

22 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Would be crazy for ellensburg to get a couple feet. I mean I know they can do it but feels like it’s been forever. My moms lived there since 2007 and i just can’t recall any weeks like that (I’m probably wrong)

Ellensburg is usually much more about very cold inversions than a lot of snow, but sometimes they do score big.

[Hawksfan2008]

WRF catching on…

 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 hour ago, bainbridgekid said:

Did they give you some sort of huge travel voucher at least? That’s inexcusable.

They just gave me a travel credit valued at my ticket. Definitely not happy would’ve liked to have been home on the 28th…but I ended up having a really good time with my friends down here the last few days. Flights to Boise and Spokane haven’t been canceled so I’m hopeful. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

29 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Brian in Leavenworth is going to get buried! 

We are in the 8-12 inch zone for the first storm and it sounds like the storms later in the week will be also snowy.  The NWS graphical forecast for here is 11 inches for the Sunday/Monday storm, and that usually doesn't show as much snow for us as we actually get.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We have some real cold to work with tomorrow night.  Single digits in the Kittitas Valley, 8 at Stampede Pass, 13 at Denny Creek, and 18 in Lester.  Given the precip intensity tomorrow night I'm going for some places getting at least 4 inches.

After the last week this next 4 inches will be like going from clean uncut stuff just in from Colombia vs the “coca” you buy from the taxi drivers in cabo on your way back to the hotel from squid roe

[seattleweatherguy]

Bothell hit 35 not good. Maybe its my temp machine not working well. The other bothell stations have it at 33.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

They just gave me a travel credit valued at my ticket. Definitely not happy would’ve liked to have been home on the 28th…but I ended up having a really good time with my friends down here the last few days. Flights to Boise and Spokane haven’t been canceled so I’m hopeful. 

It is probably going to be brutal for you to get home.  You might have to go through the Gorge and even that could be iffy.

[RentonHill]

Lots of moisture

[snow_wizard]

Just now, seattleweatherguy said:

Bothell hit 35 not good. Maybe its my temp machine not working well. The other bothell stations have it at 33.

Tonight's temps have nothing to do with what will happen tomorrow night.  Right now there's a big SE wind event going on that has warmed a lot of places up.  It's only 26.1 here right now.  The cold pool for tomorrow night is going to come from the passes.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

It is probably going to be brutal for you to get home.  You might have to go through the Gorge and even that could be iffy.

Yeah I’m going to be driving home with my brother early Monday morning. Not sure how that’s going to go…worst case scenario me and my brother stay in eastern WA until it clears up…but either way I’m glad I’ll atleast be in Washington state tomorrow. 

[SnowWillarrive]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We have some real cold to work with tomorrow night.  Single digits in the Kittitas Valley, 8 at Stampede Pass, 13 at Denny Creek, and 18 in Lester.  Given the precip intensity tomorrow night I'm going for some places getting at least 4 inches.

All of the major models including Cliff’s favorite WRF now showing some snow. It is interesting that all the professionals Mets are saying it’s too warm. Wonder if some will change their tune tomorrow.
 

This could be a really cool bookend for the Holidays. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Lots of moisture

I sure hope that's wrong.  Just nasty getting 6 inches of rain / water equivalent in that short of a time.

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

They just gave me a travel credit valued at my ticket. Definitely not happy would’ve liked to have been home on the 28th…but I ended up having a really good time with my friends down here the last few days. Flights to Boise and Spokane haven’t been canceled so I’m hopeful. 

Base on models guidance, I'd say you should prepare for the passes to shutdown.  Hoping they won't for you to get home but it looks brutal.  Hopefully your brother have chains on hands if you guys don't have an AWD.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I sure hope that's wrong.  Just nasty getting 6 inches of rain / water equivalent in that short of a time.

This fall/winter has been very active overall. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

All of the major models including Cliff’s favorite WRF now showing some snow. It is interesting that all the professionals Mets are saying it’s too warm. Wonder if some will change their tune tomorrow.
 

This could be a really cool bookend for the Holidays. 

Not sure how they can ignore most models showing snow.  Especially when we have so much cold to work with over the Central WA.  I feel like they have blown a lot of calls over the past week.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, Cloud said:

Base on models guidance, I'd say you should prepare for the passes to shutdown.  Hoping they won't for you to get home but it looks brutal.  Hopefully your brother have chains on hands if you guys don't have an AWD.

My brothers got a lifted 2006 jeep that handles pretty well in the snow. He’s been doing doordash stuff all week at home in the Tacoma area and has had no problems. That may not matter though if the pass gets shut down. We are probably going to be headed west from Spokane around 8pm tomorrow night. Not too excited about going through the gorge either. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

This fall/winter has been very active overall. 

It sure has.  The cold / dry break the last couple of days has been awesome.  I still think the ECMWF might be overdoing things though.  Previous runs had an inversion setting up.

[Cloud]

Hey now! Sounds very exciting. We've had one of those before. 

 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

My brothers got a lifted 2006 jeep that handles pretty well in the snow. He’s been doing doordash stuff all week at home in the Tacoma area and has had no problems. That may not matter though if the pass gets shut down. We are probably going to be headed west from Spokane around 8pm tomorrow night. Not too excited about going through the gorge either. 

The Gorge could have a ZR mess.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

It sure has.  The cold / dry break the last couple of days has been awesome.  I still think the ECMWF might be overdoing things though.  Previous runs had an inversion setting up.

Well if the snow tomorrow night and Wednesday works out well I honestly won’t complain if we don’t manage to get anything the rest of the year. I do think late January into February somethings going to happen again. Just seems like it’s going to be one of those winters where the western US dominates. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Hey now! Sounds very exciting. We've had one of those before. 

 

Weird situation for that.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The Gorge could have a ZR mess.

Yeah we will just have to see what happens…worst case scenario we just end up spending the night in Ellensburg or cle elum and try to go later in the morning. Really has been frustrating trying to work on getting home with all this covid and weather delays and cancellations. Sucks I can’t just fly into Seattle without spending more money Alaska really should have just covered the difference. 

[KingstonWX]

42 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Would be crazy for ellensburg to get a couple feet. I mean I know they can do it but feels like it’s been forever. My moms lived there since 2007 and i just can’t recall any weeks like that (I’m probably wrong)

No, you're right. My brother lives there and I have a cabin outside of Leavenworth. He's been bitching about snow totals since before then. 

[MossMan]

34.7 but you wouldn’t notice since the DP is 27, zero melting going on so far. 

[KingstonWX]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not sure how they can ignore most models showing snow.  Especially when we have so much cold to work with over the Central WA.  I feel like they have blown a lot of calls over the past week.

Exactly what I have been wondering about. It's 36 here now, so I can see what they are looking at, but I think it still supports snow... and oh, look at the radar. Hmmmm.

[GHweatherChris]

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

I’m a zero! 

[KingstonWX]

3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Yuck, stahp.

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

It’s over! 

[Thurston Howell III]

12 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

No, you're right. My brother lives there and I have a cabin outside of Leavenworth. He's been bitching about snow totals since before then. 

Funny, I always thought Ellensburg got a lot of snow because in my college yrs at WSU in the 80's it seemed like every winter it got dumped on.

[KingstonWX]

2 minutes ago, Thurston Howell III said:

Funny, I always thought Ellensburg got a lot of snow because in my college yrs at WSU in the 80's it seemed like every winter it got dumped on.

I remember that too from all my childhood trips over there, but maybe that was the lack of snow in the puget sound bias. Or things have just changed, meteorologically, but that seems fairly unlikely, at least to that extent. 

EDIT: In fact, now that I think about it, they always had snow, but never a crazy amount. I remember a few times they got dumped on, but for the most part, it was a couple inches of cold dry snow and that was that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

53 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The Euro looks like it checked the calendar.

Hard to expect to much from January. At least we are set up for a big February... Could be the 5th February in a row at SLE that is cooler than January... We are already in uncharted waters. 

[snow_wizard]

14 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

Yuck, stahp.

The 925s are going to fall when the heavy precip set in tomorrow night.  We knew all of this already.

[umadbro]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hard to expect to much from January. At least we are set up for a big February... Could be the 5th February in a row at SLE that is cooler than January... We are already in uncharted waters. 

This is ban worthy