shakjen Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Kaplan just had his live stream on Facebook. High res rapid model is well north. He thinks it could trend that way. Who knows? 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, centralweather44 said: What the heak does this even mean? I thought we weren’t even in it. I’m confused Look at the date, 1-26. Back when models had a big storm for Nebraska and Iowa. Just a bit off. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, CentralNebWeather said: Look at the date, 1-26. Back when models had a big storm for Nebraska and Iowa. Just a bit off. Missed that. Haha. I was going to say. Only about 100 miles off. Slow year for snow removal services for sure. Bought time to shove the plows and blowers in the corner and move onto spring work. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, centralweather44 said: What the heak does this even mean? I thought we weren’t even in it. I’m confused hows how far off cpc was 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 NAM is not good. Noticeably drier through 51 around here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 12 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: What a joke. NAM moves south here and gets dryer. Moves north and is wetter on its eastern flank. God, I wish I could move from this place for so many reasons. Step away from the ledge my friend. Try to find some humor in it. That’s what I do. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 0z NAM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Guys, I'm calling ballgame on this for MBY. Here's how I think it shakes out for me... Winter weather advisory Forecast 2-5" (I'll get 2-3") Snow from Tue 9 PM ending Wed 12 Noon, nothing afterwards Still will hang around to enjoy the ride with you guys that score big! 2 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, Clinton said: 0z NAM Now the NAM has me back up to 8.9. Last 3 runs 11.2, 2.7, 8.9 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, mlgamer said: Guys, I'm calling ballgame on this for MBY. Here's how I think it shakes out for me... Winter weather advisory Forecast 2-5" (I'll get 2-3") Snow from Tue 9 PM ending Wed 12 Noon, nothing afterwards Still will hang around to enjoy the ride with you guys that score big! You may not want to look at the 0z 3km NAM. Locations north and west of KC are very low. Hope they’re wrong. I feel for you. I know all about thinking a big storm is coming, then it changes direction or weakens. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: You may not want to look at the 0z 3km NAM. Locations north and west of KC are very low. Hope they’re wrong. I feel for you. I know all about thinking a big storm is coming, then it changes direction or weakens. Yeah, expecting 2-3" could be too optimistic...lol. 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, mlgamer said: Yeah, expecting 2-3" could be too optimistic...lol. Hopefully you get that. That northern/northwest edge is a sharp cut off on all models. Have to hope it moves north. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Hey everyone... Pissed at myself for just now getting on to check out everyones thoughts.. I'm back in STL for school, so I have been LOVING these trends all day... the biggest thing for me has been trying to figure out if these 2.5 qpf amounts that the nam and deterministic gfs are showing is overdoing it... and right now I think it is. I just don't see how 2.5 inches of liquid can come in the midwest during the winter.... but we will see what the ensembles show at 0z. Still got a couple good model runs left.... Jack 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Well at least the 00z RDPS still loves me...13+ inches by 60 hrs. O Canada!! 2 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, mlgamer said: Well at least the 00z RDPS still loves me...13+ inches by 60 hrs. O Canada!! Wow it's juiced and hits all of us in the area, just once it would be nice to have this happen. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Clinton said: Wow it's juiced and hits all of us in the area, just once it would be nice to have this happen. Probably better keep dreamin unfortunately 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 RDPS, RAP, and HRRR are pretty useless right now. Waaay to amped. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 0z GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 NWS offices doing up maps for snowfall or snow totals is a relatively new thing. I couldn't find any from the Big Dogs of 2014/15/16. So I'm quite certain this is the most I've seen for mby: 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 0z GFS almost identical as the 18z with the overrunning snows. South with main storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 hours ago, Clinton said: The SE trend tonight is a big problem, the 18z Euro mean shifted SE at least 40 miles. I need the cold shifts SE to keep me out of .5 in plus of ice. This is a demolisher in terms of that as modeled. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: 0z GFS Not a fan of how it wimps out for SEMI. Just don't see all that big snows down to the OH river as realistic, lol. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Not a fan of how it wimps out for SEMI. Just don't see all that big snows down to the OH river as realistic, lol. The runs have looked good for you though, are you forecasted to get 8-14 still? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, Clinton said: The runs have looked good for you though, are you forecasted to get 8-14 still? NO. Latest map has me at 12-16" 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, jaster220 said: NO. Latest map has me at 12-16" Nice, hope Niko doing ok he hasn't been on much. You guys look to do real well. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 0z GEFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 00z CMC has me at 16" at 48 hrs. Could it be right? Beats me... 2 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, mlgamer said: 00z CMC has me at 16" at 48 hrs. Could it be right? Beats me... CMC is third worst among the “big four” global models. When times are desperate… 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 24 minutes ago, Clinton said: Nice, hope Niko doing ok he hasn't been on much. You guys look to do real well. Been super busy these couple days....but this is what they have forecasted for my area...... WinterCast Late Tuesday Night - Thursday Evening 12 - 18 in Snow 1 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Niko said: Been super busy these couple days....but this is what they have forecasted for my area...... WinterCast Late Tuesday Night - Thursday Evening 12 - 18 in Snow My office has me at 12-18 but I think that will get cut to 8-12 tomorrow. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, Clinton said: My office has me at 12-18 but I think that will get cut to 8-12 tomorrow. Amigo..from what I am seeing tanite, I believe that areas from yby through central Illinois, NW Indiana and straight towards S MI are the areas where most heaviest snows will fall. You are looking golden w this! 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Wut? No way we get 6-8 here. Not a single reliable model has Saint Jo getting 3-4 either. The 3-4/4-6 line should be over KC with 1-2 from St Jo down to the MCI area. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, winterfreak said: Wut? No way we get 6-8 here. Not a single reliable model has Saint Jo getting 3-4 either. 2 minutes ago, Niko said: We shall see what tomorrow brings. Good luck to all. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack_GradStudent Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 https://whatgoesonoutside.com/biggest-winter-storm-of-2022-so-far/ 3 hours later.... I finally have a blog entry... check it out!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 hours ago, metallica470 said: Welcome! I have worked in Tinley for years and just moved to Orland from the West Loop in November. I went the entire month of December without getting a shovel. Finally picked one up at the beginning of January haha Thank you! It’s a big change of pace but having a place to park and not having to drive around to find a spot for an hour is a relief Also, I actually think I’m in a decent spot. I think this goes north last minute, even if it’s 20 miles Tinley is golden. I’m so excited!!! NAM even gives me 12-15” and riding the boarder of even more, I absolutely am not complaining! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: NO. Latest map has me at 12-16" Reeling in the Big Dog! Trends are looking might fine for you and @Niko. @Clinton I'm sure your tickled with excitement buddy...I'm rooting for you and those in and around KC. It's been a long for you guys. Lucky 11? 11 years since the anniversary of GHD-1....Go Big baby! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 55 minutes ago, Clinton said: My office has me at 12-18 but I think that will get cut to 8-12 tomorrow. You should screenshot these graphics for memories... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 21 minutes ago, Jack_GradStudent said: https://whatgoesonoutside.com/biggest-winter-storm-of-2022-so-far/ 3 hours later.... I finally have a blog entry... check it out!! Nice write up! Thanks for sharing. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Not sure what to expect up here...the razor sharp cutoff on the NW side has me worried as dry air usually always wins out. The NNE flow could aid in supporting more moisture but that is a wild card. Some of the CAM's are globals are indicating a good chance for Lehs/LES potential. LOT isn't buying into it much. For the last LES event we had, the models had zero clue where the band set up. Who knows how this plays out. You'd think that with 850's as cold as they are being predicted that we should see a decent Lake influence. If we get any decent synoptic snow it will come Wed-Thu....Thu-Fri is Bonus Snow if the lake adds to the snow dept. I'm curious to see if the Euro holds on to the 6"+ snowfall for ORD... So, some CAM's are showing a decent hit.... @shakjen was Kaplan showing the RPM model?? I haven't been able to watch any of the news weather forecasts bc I've been out of pocket most of the day. The RPM is a very good model inside 48 hours. The Canadien has trended about 50+ miles NW from yesterday's 0z run... Tough forecast for N IL....it'll be one of those nowcast storm systems which are either it's Fun or Depressing...in a way it builds excitement to see how this all unfolds. You guys down S and E of here are looking golden and have no worries like most of us up here. It's been many years, maybe close to a Decade since the southern MW got nailed by such a big winter storm. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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