2/1 - 2/3 MW/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm (GHD-3)

[Jack_GradStudent]

12 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Nice write up! Thanks for sharing.

Thank you!!

[Tom]

0z Euro keeps hope alive for some good Lehs/LES across Lake/DuPage/Cook counties through Thu night...

NW Side of KC seems to be still in the game... @Clintonis money and all the way up into DTX proper... IN peeps are golden as well...

 

 

[Tom]

@OKwx2k4, are the heavier snows approaching your neck of the woods?

[Tom]

Winter Storm Severity Index for snow amounts...

[OKwx2k4]

3 minutes ago, Tom said:

@OKwx2k4, are the heavier snows approaching your neck of the woods?

I'm on the 10 line there in eastern ok. That's a good runout right there. Got a good model war started here. My early call is 8-10.

[Tom]

1 minute ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I'm on the 10 line there in eastern ok. That's a good runout right there. Got a good model war started here. My early call is 8-10.

Sweet!  Good luck down there my friend...hope you score Bigly!

[Tom]

03z RAP...

 

 

0z HRRR....

[Tom]

0z EPS...still showing warning snows for NE IL...C IL into N IN/S MI appears to be the epicenter...the EPS has weakened some on the western edge into MO/KS...

 

 

[Tom]

07z NWS NDFD...still snowing for E MO/IL/IN/MI

 

[Tom]

Sheesh, if the LR 06z HRRR is correct, there will be some amazing convective banding setting up...holy smokes!

 

I'm really digging the Lake Plume that the model is starting to see as we get closer in time...

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

Reeling in the Big Dog!  Trends are looking might fine for you and @Niko.

@Clinton I'm sure your tickled with excitement buddy...I'm rooting for you and those in and around KC.  It's been a long for you guys.  Lucky 11?  11 years since the anniversary of GHD-1....Go Big baby!

 

Haha, It would appear that way but I'm a bit numb to the fact I guess until it's happening at least. Firstly, that's the OPPOSITE of what this region's known for, lol. Secondly, I'm new here so it doesn't quite have that "mby" feel yet and I've not been in Motown when it was hit with a big storm so I don't have even a mind pic of what it's like. In Marshall, I knew exactly what to expect, the city plow going down my street after every 3" fell. They'd run that thing like it was a wind-up toy on a track. It was really annoying because I wanted to see my street with deep snow! But NO! they had to come around sweeping it clean every two hours like my little side street was the main thoroughfare or something. I did have a snowmobile cruise by on 1-5-14, that was cool to see! Back in the spring storm of '75 I remember our neighborhood streets impassable with 18" of snow cover. Nothing moved but snow machines until the city plows came through that afternoon. That's what I want to see again, lol. Anyways, if this follows through, and doesn't end up in Akron OH, I can't help but remember my posts last autumn about whenever I move somewhere new, look out for big storms coming that way! Here we are again..

Best of luck to all in the game for an over-achiever in yby! 

PS-12k NAM (my personal go-to model at this range) shows 42 hrs snowing, and 12 hrs of snow from the 2nd wave  here. Other than the over-inflated WxBell Kuchera maps showing 24-29" amounts here, most others were pretty consistent with a 19-21" total. Not sure we verify those numbers, but a top-4 or 5 historic event is in the books if we somehow manage to do so. Going to fun trying either way. Not going to turn my nose up at a footer if we end up short. Let's go!

 

[jaster220]

19 hours ago, tStacsh said:

There is nothing atmospherically there that will move this any more north.  In fact I suspect it may end up weaker and suppressed overall.  Those who get the snow will be happy though.  Long duration moderate snow can add up in these ratios.  

Looking at 2 periods of Heavy snow. Tomorrow morning after the change-over, and again with the wave Thursday. Only question for this guy is whether the NAM's portrayal of non-stop flakes here for 42 hrs is accurate. It's just barely from Wayne on south the snow shield is shown, north a county etc gets a break before wave 2 pushes the snow back north. 

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

Winter Storm Severity Index for snow amounts...

NEVER thought I'd see the purple in SMI, let alone be in it after moving to SEMI. This is just unreal stuff, like an illusion or episode of The Twilight Zone or something. #wild

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

Not sure what to expect up here...the razor sharp cutoff on the NW side has me worried as dry air usually always wins out.  The NNE flow could aid in supporting more moisture but that is a wild card.  Some of the CAM's are globals are indicating a good chance for Lehs/LES potential.  LOT isn't buying into it much.  For the last LES event we had, the models had zero clue where the band set up.  Who knows how this plays out.  You'd think that with 850's as cold as they are being predicted that we should see a decent Lake influence.  If we get any decent synoptic snow it will come Wed-Thu....Thu-Fri is Bonus Snow if the lake adds to the snow dept.

I'm curious to see if the Euro holds on to the 6"+ snowfall for ORD...

So, some CAM's are showing a decent hit.... @shakjen  was Kaplan showing the RPM model??  I haven't been able to watch any of the news weather forecasts bc I've been out of pocket most of the day.  The RPM is a very good model inside 48 hours.

 

 

 

The Canadien has trended about 50+ miles NW from yesterday's 0z run...

 

 

Tough forecast for N IL....it'll be one of those nowcast storm systems which are either it's Fun or Depressing...in a way it builds excitement to see how this all unfolds.  You guys down S and E of here are looking golden and have no worries like most of us up here.  It's been many years, maybe close to a Decade since the southern MW got nailed by such a big winter storm.

RGEM's really upped the ante for Chicago proper! Hope it's right, as well as some of the other SR models that are showing the "now time" bumps north. Good luck amigo!

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Niko said:

Finally, an AccuWx map I can endorse!! Good luck buddy, this is some fun stuff, like you don't even need to get on a plane to go find it out east either, lol

[Clinton]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

Reeling in the Big Dog!  Trends are looking might fine for you and @Niko.

@Clinton I'm sure your tickled with excitement buddy...I'm rooting for you and those in and around KC.  It's been a long for you guys.  Lucky 11?  11 years since the anniversary of GHD-1....Go Big baby!

 

Yes sir I am!  I have my first Winter Storm Warning for snow in years.  

 

 

---

 

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
236 AM CST Tue Feb 1 2022

KSZ057-060-103>105-MOZ017-021>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054-
012200-
/O.UPG.KEAX.WS.A.0002.220202T0300Z-220204T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KEAX.WS.W.0002.220202T0300Z-220204T0000Z/
Miami-Linn KS-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-Adair-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-
Chariton-Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-
Pettis-Cooper-Bates-Henry-
Including the cities of Paola, Osawatomie, Louisburg, Pleasanton,
La Cygne, Mound City, Fort Leavenworth, Leavenworth, Lansing,
Kansas City Kansas, Overland Park, Stanley, Olathe, Shawnee,
Lenexa, Kirksville, Cameron, Plattsburg, Lathrop, Hamilton,
Braymer, Polo, Breckenridge, Chillicothe, Brookfield, Marceline,
Macon, La Plata, Parkville, Platte City, Riverside,
Weatherby Lake, Weston, Gladstone, Liberty, Excelsior Springs,
Kearney, Richmond, Lawson, Carrollton, Salisbury, Brunswick,
Keytesville, Moberly, Kansas City, Independence, Odessa,
Higginsville, Lexington, Concordia, Marshall, Fayette, Glasgow,
New Franklin, Belton, Raymore, Harrisonville, Pleasant Hill,
Warrensburg, Sedalia, Boonville, Butler, Adrian, Rich Hill,
Clinton, and Windsor
236 AM CST Tue Feb 1 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible and a brief window of freezing rain.
  Total snow accumulations of 6 to 14 inches and ice
  accumulations of a light glaze.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and
  central, north central, northeast, northwest and west central
  Missouri.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening

[Clinton]

The 6z models are showing a significant trends NW this morning except for the GFS which has a brutal reduction north of I-35.  Really hope the NAM and RDPS are on to something so the KC guys get hit big.

6z NAM big jump NW for N.MO and Chicago.

6z GFS

9z RAP at 10:1

 

[GDR]

Kc got hit big over the weekend I don’t think they can take much more

[Clinton]

EAX updated snowfall map did cut totals slightly for mby, still in the 9-14 range.  A continued shift to the NW would help those on the north side of KC.

[Clinton]

@Tom 6z 3km NAM looks like it doubled your totals.

[Tom]

6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

@Tom 6z 3km NAM looks like it doubled your totals.

Ya, I've been keeping an eye on this but I'd like to see more of this on the 12z/18z runs today...keeping hopes alive for at least 6" which would be the biggest snowfall for the season in MBY.

[Clinton]

6z Euro

[Stacsh]

WWA for 3-6 inches of snow.  Must not be trusting the GFS.  Euro seemed a bit north.  I’m right on the edge of accumulating snow.  20 miles north might not see any.  20 miles south might see 6+.  Oh what fun  

[GDR]

8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

6z Euro

I better get ready to fire up the leaf blower euro has almost an inch for me

[jaster220]

10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

6z Euro

Are these the same WxBell Kuchera maps that a few days ago (even y'day) were showing 30+ inches? If so, it's really drying it out as we approach game time. Not a fan of the way the globals are all Maxed Out 4-5 days out, leaving only one way to go really, down down down. In the "old days" lol, I'd be ecstatic that we'd worked our way up to what's shown here.

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

Are these the same WxBell Kuchera maps that a few days ago (even y'day) were showing 30+ inches? If so, it's really drying it out as we approach game time. Not a fan of the way the globals are all Maxed Out 4-5 days out, leaving only one way to go really, down down down. In the "old days" lol, I'd be ecstatic that we'd worked our way up to what's shown here.

There were some runs of the Euro Control that showed those totals, the operational has been pretty consistent.  Totals have came down slightly as we get closer with a strong south shift yesterday.

[shakjen]

7 hours ago, Tom said:

Not sure what to expect up here...the razor sharp cutoff on the NW side has me worried as dry air usually always wins out.  The NNE flow could aid in supporting more moisture but that is a wild card.  Some of the CAM's are globals are indicating a good chance for Lehs/LES potential.  LOT isn't buying into it much.  For the last LES event we had, the models had zero clue where the band set up.  Who knows how this plays out.  You'd think that with 850's as cold as they are being predicted that we should see a decent Lake influence.  If we get any decent synoptic snow it will come Wed-Thu....Thu-Fri is Bonus Snow if the lake adds to the snow dept.

I'm curious to see if the Euro holds on to the 6"+ snowfall for ORD...

So, some CAM's are showing a decent hit.... @shakjen  was Kaplan showing the RPM model??  I haven't been able to watch any of the news weather forecasts bc I've been out of pocket most of the day.  The RPM is a very good model inside 48 hours.

 

 

 

The Canadien has trended about 50+ miles NW from yesterday's 0z run...

 

 

Tough forecast for N IL....it'll be one of those nowcast storm systems which are either it's Fun or Depressing...in a way it builds excitement to see how this all unfolds.  You guys down S and E of here are looking golden and have no worries like most of us up here.  It's been many years, maybe close to a Decade since the southern MW got nailed by such a big winter storm.

Yes, Caplan was showing the RPM model and all the other models too. At that time he said northern counties would be upgraded to warning level, whiich they were a few hours ago. He thought a northern shift would happen. Although it seems by the warning range and LOTs write up that the second part will miss our area to the south on Thursday. 

[Jayhawker85]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

6z Euro

Let’s pray that the Euro and the short range models are correct for us!! This storm is just like a Chiefs game where we are up by 18 and now the opposing team is caught up and we are about to enter overtime!

[Sciascia]

12z HRRR coming in with a more realistic (albeit less fun) scenario:

 

 

 

[tStacsh]

3 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

12z HRRR coming in with a more realistic (albeit less fun) scenario:

 

 

 

Unbelievable cutoff. I could see 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 or  9 inches of snow.  

[winterfreak]

NAM is dryyy through 27.

[Sciascia]

NAM coming in south of 6z with snow area, but fairly the same as 0z.

[Sciascia]

NAM @ 30hrs

[winterfreak]

Disaster.

[Niko]

We are now less than 24hrs away from this major (possibly Epic Winterstorm) to begin. Models have been locked on to this track for days. A solidly 1-2ft+ for S MI is becoming very likely. Ya don't see this quite often here, so lets do it. It will be a cold storm as well, especially, w/ the second wave. Someone in this area will score very good w/ tremendous snow accumulations. Also, warnings look like they will be posted later today, especially by the 4pm package. Good luck to all that are in the path of this dangerous "Snowstorm." Let the fun begin!

[Tony]

24 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

NAM coming in south of 6z with snow area, but fairly the same as 0z.

Not liking the south trend again. I'm guessing 3"-6" in Dupage County area. Was really hoping for 12 or more but hopefully the city can cash in on that amount. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Things must be trending north. I now have 20% pops added into my forecast grids for late tonight and tomorrow morning.

[Niko]

8 hours ago, Tom said:

Winter Storm Severity Index for snow amounts...

WOW! I dont think I have ever seen this for S MI b4. This upcoming snowstorm means business, that's for sure.

[winterfreak]

Can’t make this up lol.

[Clinton]

Rain began falling here about 30 min ago. A little more steady than I was expecting.