November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Currently 52 degrees. I think I see some flakes in the air, but no accumulation. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow, Wednesday and Thursday are extremely wet in W. Oregon on the 00z GFS. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Chilly for Thanksgiving?

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_240_1000_500_thick.gif

[luvssnow_spokane]

My high today was 45 now sitting at 43.. Been stuck at that range all day.. Coolish...

[seattleweatherguy]

lights almost went out i wonder why

[TT-SEA]

Wow, Wednesday and Thursday are extremely wet in W. Oregon on the 00z GFS. 

 

 

Not Thursday afternoon...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_120_precip_p03.gif

[TT-SEA]

Chilly for Thanksgiving?

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_240_1000_500_thick.gif

 

 

Getting my hopes up for a nice Thanksgiving and maybe the holiday weekend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not Thursday afternoon...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_120_precip_p03.gif

 

Not Thursday afternoon...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_120_precip_p03.gif

 

Okay, more Wednesday....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Getting my hopes up for a nice Thanksgiving and maybe the holiday weekend.

 

At face value this is a little light snow for my location. But shift everything a little west...and...

[stuffradio]

Can I have some links to those models so I can see them for myself maybe a pm or so? I hate to keep asking and would like to contribute more to this board.

You could play around with this since it's free.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na

[TT-SEA]

Wow... its not raining here right now!

 

First time in about 54 hours that its not raining.     

[TT-SEA]

At face value this is a little light snow for my location. But shift everything a little west...and...

 

00Z Canadian is totally different than its previous runs.    Really agrees with other models now... even at 240 hours.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

[DareDuck]

Huge Ducks win tonight! An inch or two of snow tomorrow night into monday would be the icing on the cake.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00Z Canadian is totally different than its previous runs.    Really agrees with other models now... even at 240 hours.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

 

Looks nice. Nothing earth shattering, but still. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Huge Ducks win tonight! An inch or two of snow tomorrow night into monday would be the icing on the cake.

 

Really good game. I did not expect them to win this one. If they can beat USC next week this season will be a success considering how it started...The WSU game is the one that really hurts. 

[TT-SEA]

41 here and nothing falling from the sky.   

 

Going to bed so I can get up early and check out the situation.   My son will probably be up all night turning on the yard lights.  

[seattleweatherguy]

hey snowiz or someone else what does the HRRR say? I am hoping it gives us some hope.

[MossMan]

41 here and nothing falling from the sky.

 

Going to bed so I can get up early and check out the situation. My son will probably be up all night turning on the yard lights.

I remember doing that as a kid. Actually who am I kidding...I still do it. Though I do sleep now, just because I'm old and my body won't let me stay up no matter how exciting things get. Dec 1996 I didn't really sleep for about 4 days straight. I wonder if my daughter is going to have the same addiction to the weather that I have.

Anyway still raining! 41 degrees.

[HighlandExperience]

hey snowiz or someone else what does the HRRR say? I am hoping it gives us some hope.

I wouldn't expect much in Seattle. The 00z WRF shows nothing over the I-5 corridor. 

 

The HRRR seemed pretty liberal. Who knows we might be surprised. 

[seattleweatherguy]

I wouldn't expect much in Seattle.

Yea... im more east puget sound lowlands but i get the idea.

[snow_wizard]

I say we will have to wait and see for snow in the East Puget Sound lowlands tonight. Way too close to call. I think most places on any kind of a hill will at least see some slush. Probably of more interest is the fact the WRF shows 925mb temps dropping below 0C on 3 differently occasions over the next week. Also...some kind of an intrusion of chilly / cold continental air looks increasingly likely somewhere in the 8 to 10 day time frame. No doubt things are slowly trending colder.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO time...

[snow_wizard]

The cold airmass moving in isn't probably going to make a huge mark on averages. It looks like tomorrow will probably see a midnight high and then Monday will probably see a late evening high.

 

A briefly cold airmass sandwiched between two very mild slugs of moisture.

At least we look to pull off one solidly cold day here, since we are already in the low 40s.

 

The Portland area just seems to be unable to shake the warmth as of yet. Your time will come soon though.

[snow_wizard]

I remember doing that as a kid. Actually who am I kidding...I still do it. Though I do sleep now, just because I'm old and my body won't let me stay up no matter how exciting things get. Dec 1996 I didn't really sleep for about 4 days straight. I wonder if my daughter is going to have the same addiction to the weather that I have.

Anyway still raining! 41 degrees.

925mb temps are supposed to drop 3 to 4C over the next 6 hours. No question that leaves the door open.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At least we look to pull off one solidly cold day here, since we are already in the low 40s.

 

The Portland area just seems to be unable to shake the warmth as of yet. Your time will come soon though.

 

I appreciate your optimism. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last I checked it was 52 still here. Hard to believe it may be snowing in less then 8 hours. 

[snow_wizard]

I appreciate your optimism.

We have all of the major models agreeing on a decent cold snap by day now. The upper level pattern has actually been favorable for cold for quite a while. Nice to see the details finally coming together to realize some below normal temps. Right now tomorrow and Thursday both look solidly chilly for this area anyway.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We have all of the major models agreeing on a decent cold snap by day now. The upper level pattern has actually been favorable for cold for quite a while. Nice to see the details finally coming together to realize some below normal temps. Right now tomorrow and Thursday both look solidly chilly for this area anyway.

 

I guess I don't want to get my hopes up...

[BLI snowman]

Last I checked it was 52 still here. Hard to believe it may be snowing in less then 8 hours. 

 

Mid November is our time for sharp cold fronts. In November 1897, Portland went from a high of 66 on the 18th to 3 inches of snow on the 19th.

[stuffradio]

It's 43 here, and it won't snow sadly.

[ShawniganLake]

0z Euro looked fairly uneventful.

[snow_wizard]

Some real eye popping GFS ensemble members tonight. 9 out of 20 take 850s below -10C over Seattle sometime in the 6 to 12 day period with a couple going below -15.

 

As for the 0z ECMWF. Very good for a hard frost later in the month. Still much uncertainty how far offshore the blocking will be at that time.

[snow_wizard]

Mid November is our time for sharp cold fronts. In November 1897, Portland went from a high of 66 on the 18th to 3 inches of snow on the 19th.

I think it was 2003 or 2004 we went from 60 in the late evening to mid 30s and snowing by the next morning. It can get pretty dynamic this time of year.

[snow_wizard]

It's 43 here, and it won't snow sadly.

The models have consistently advertised that any snow chances would be further south where the heavier precip is.

[snow_wizard]

I think it's kind of worth noting the CPC analogs have heavily favored 1994, 2003, and 2004 lately. Those three have come up very consistently for weeks now. All were warm ENSO to some extent, and all had Arctic intrusions into the NW sometime in the early Dec to early Jan time frame. The 2004-05 situation came within an eyelash of being historic.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think it's kind of worth noting the CPC analogs have heavily favored 1994, 2003, and 2004 lately. Those three have come up very consistently for weeks now. All were warm ENSO to some extent, and all had Arctic intrusions into the NW sometime in the early Dec to early Jan time frame. The 2004-05 situation came within an eyelash of being historic.

 

Do you happen to have a link to the HRR?

[ShawniganLake]

The models have consistently advertised that any snow chances would be further south where the heavier precip is.

38F here with moderate rain currently.  Not expecting any snow here either, but it might be a good sign for you guys down south, as it is running a little cooler here than I was expecting this evening 

[snow_wizard]

38F here with moderate rain currently.  Not expecting any snow here either, but it might be a good sign for you guys down south, as it is running a little cooler here than I was expecting this evening

That is very promising indeed!

[snow_wizard]

Do you happen to have a link to the HRR?

No...I need to get up to date with that one.

[seattleweatherguy]

42 with a few point of 32