November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Days 8-9 on the Euro is definitely a borderline snowstorm pattern for someone.

 

Definitely maybe.

[TT-SEA]

Just curious what are the wind maps showing like the wrf

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_wgsfc.21.0000.gif

[bainbridgekid]

GFS operational is a big warm outlier around Thanksgiving. Quite a few cold members.

 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF is trending in a very sweet direction.  Big SE ridge and at least some PV influence reaching into SW Canada.  Quite a chilly run for sure.  Looks like snow going into the cold.

[Front Ranger]

The ECMWF is trending in a very sweet direction.  Big SE ridge and at least some PV influence reaching into SW Canada.  Quite a chilly run for sure.  Looks like snow going into the cold.

 

It's Phil vs. the Euro. After this, we'll know who to trust for the rest of the winter.

[seattleweatherguy]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_wgsfc.21.0000.gif

That only shows 35 to 40 mph gusts. For Me and seattle

[TT-SEA]

Days 8-9 on the Euro is definitely a borderline snowstorm pattern for someone.

 

Definitely maybe.

 

It does actually... looking at the last frame of the detailed map at 180 hours (next Tuesday morning) it shows snow across much of SW WA and very close to Portland.

[snow_wizard]

In the FWIW department... pretty much every November cold snap worth anything in the last 100 years has featured at least some snow in the Seattle area.  I will do a post with details if things continue to look good tomorrow.

[Deweydog]

Definitely an intriguing setup on the Euro. Too bad any one run of any one model currently are about as useful as Charlie Sheen's immune system.

[BLI snowman]

In the FWIW department... pretty much every November cold snap worth anything in the last 100 years has featured at least some snow in the Seattle area.  I will do a post with details if things continue to look good tomorrow.

 

Seattle tends to do way better than down here this time of year. Lows overwhelmingly track to our north before December.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Definitely an intriguing setup on the Euro. Too bad any one run of any one model currently are about as useful as Charlie Sheen's immune system.

Hilarious Charlie Sheen reference.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am not very excited... yet...

[Jesse]

I am not very excited... yet...

Keep us posted!

[westiztehbest]

Phil will prob end up being right about the PV issue.  It's been rather well consolidated thus far in the autumn.  Getting it to squeeze in our favor is probably too much too ask...but that doesn't mean I won't root for it.  Having a GOA ridge placement far enough west (at 192 hours on the Euro) is where things get the most interesting.  It's where you get cold and moisture...as opposed to just cold.  But hey...overrunning storms can be pretty epic as well.  Just hasn't been too cold here as of yet.  Other notes:  tonight is the first snowfall.  Running about two weeks late for a normal season.  RAAM is forecasted to decline over the next couple weeks along with the MJO staying in phase 2/3.  Solar activity remains relatively low compared with max.  ENSO SSTs look close to hitting their max this go around.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Deweydog]

We're in dire need of Ron's cautious optimism right now.

[snow_wizard]

The 6z ensemble is fantastic, but the operational still sucks balls.  I think the operational is overthinking it.  I would be very surprised to see the operational GFS not come around in the next couple of runs.  Hard to imagine everything else being wrong ad it being right.

[luvssnow_seattle]

The 6z ensemble is fantastic, but the operational still sucks balls.  I think the operational is overthinking it.  I would be very surprised to see the operational GFS not come around in the next couple of runs.  Hard to imagine everything else being wrong ad it being right.

Why is this hard to imagine?> as that is almost alway the case the last few years. Actually, quite common in how things play out in the models. I am cheering for it to be good but just do not buy it. Marginal, at best ... coolish and wet.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF ensemble mean is totally different than the operational run for next week. Not a good sign at all. Ensemble mean looks more like GFS and Canadian.

[luvssnow_seattle]

ECMWF ensemble mean is totally different than the operational run for next week. Not a good sign at all. Ensemble mean looks more like GFS and Canadian.

Yeah... does not look good -- Exactly the gradual trend on how things have historically played out over the past many years. tease and tease away... bummer but not surprised and somewhat expected.  *sigh*

[Timmy]

The 6z ensemble is fantastic, but the operational still sucks balls. I think the operational is overthinking it. I would be very surprised to see the operational GFS not come around in the next couple of runs. Hard to imagine everything else being wrong ad it being right.

Isn't the operational the one that runs at the highest resolution? It's not like all members of the ensemble are on board. Note too that the mean is skewed due to the Arctic members being so cold.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 06z GFS ensemble is the best yet. -8C mean for PDX. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 6z ensemble is fantastic, but the operational still sucks balls.  I think the operational is overthinking it.  I would be very surprised to see the operational GFS not come around in the next couple of runs.  Hard to imagine everything else being wrong ad it being right.

 

I don't think the model thinks...It computes as it is programmed to do. 

[stuffradio]

I don't think the model thinks...It computes as it is programmed to do. 

You're thinking too much.

 

It's windy here right now. It's nothing damaging yet.

[Front Ranger]

I don't think the model thinks...It computes as it is programmed to do. 

 

If the GFS could think, it would be making this face most of the time: 

 

[Kayla]

If the GFS could think, it would be making this face most of the time: 

 

 

GFS has been SO bad lately. It's almost not even worth looking at anymore.

[Jesse]

GFS has been SO bad lately. It's almost not even worth looking at anymore.

I'm guessing the 12z run didn't show that Black Friday transistion event?

[Jesse]

I don't think the model thinks...It computes as it is programmed to do.

Wonder if that means it's supporting Rubio?

[TT-SEA]

12Z Canadian... one week from today.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_180_0000.gif

[Jesse]

I like how chilly the 12z GFS is Friday through the weekend. May finally see our first frost.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS for Thansgiving...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_228_500_vort_ht.gif

[seattleweatherguy]

12Z GFS for Thansgiving...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_228_500_vort_ht.gif

I am no expert but that does not loo like a snow pattern

[TT-SEA]

I am no expert but that does not loo like a snow pattern

 

 

No... but it is definitely nice weather.

 

There is still a strong signal for a blocking period in all the models which is good.   Details will become more clear in the next couple days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well I guess the Canadian isn't bad.

[TT-SEA]

Dead calm here... that will change.

[TT-SEA]

Just about to one foot of rain here this month... already above normal for the entire month of November.

 

A drier pattern is likely ahead regardless of the details.

 

WRF shows gusty, dry east winds and sunshine here on Friday.    I love that kind of weather.

[Kayla]

Canadian shows 850mb temps getting down -12º in the Seattle area and -10º in the Portland area. Pretty impressive for late November.

[TT-SEA]

Canadian shows 850mb temps getting down -12º in the Seattle area and -10º in the Portland area. Pretty impressive for late November.

 

 

Go Canadian!   

[seattleweatherguy]

"PDX-BLI Gradient up to +17.8 - very strong!"

 

 

Twitter:scott from komo says. But what does this mean in terms of wind speeds?

[ShawniganLake]

Dead calm here... that will change.

Stormy here this morning. Lots of heavy rain and gusty winds. Better than 1 inch of rain since midnight and we lost our power around 920am.

[seattleweatherguy]

light have blinked

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

51 mph gust at bremerton airport. Highest gust ive seen there in some time.

[ShawniganLake]

Pretty strong signal for a developing cold snap here. 70-90% probability of below average.

[Phil]

It's Phil vs. the Euro. After this, we'll know who to trust for the rest of the winter.

Haha. Just to clarify, I suspect there will be somewhat of a cooldown w/ continental influence during the aforementioned window, at least into northern Washington as the NPAC wave attempts to gain latitude and break into the PV.

 

However, I don't see Arctic air making it out of BC, and suspect the strong, fully-coupled PV aloft will cut off the high in the upper sigmas, causing it to decouple, which favors the development of a cut-off low pressure system beneath the high as the Pacific jet runs into the decoupled wave and splits.

[seattleweatherguy]

Haha. Just to clarify, I suspect there will be somewhat of a cooldown w/ continental influence during the aforementioned window, at least into northern Washington as the NPAC wave attempts to gain latitude.

 

However, I don't see Arctic air making it out of BC, and suspect the strong, coupled PV aloft will cut off the high in the upper sigmas, causing it to pinch off, which favors the development of a cut-off low pressure system beneath the high as the Pacific jet runs into the decoupled wave and splits.

 

El Nino effect

[stuffradio]

Haha. Just to clarify, I suspect there will be somewhat of a cooldown w/ continental influence during the aforementioned window, at least into northern Washington as the NPAC wave attempts to gain latitude and break into the PV.

 

However, I don't see Arctic air making it out of BC, and suspect the strong, fully-coupled PV aloft will cut off the high in the upper sigmas, causing it to decouple, which favors the development of a cut-off low pressure system beneath the high as the Pacific jet runs into the decoupled wave and splits.

Do you think it will seep down to the BC border around my area?

[Phil]

El Nino effect

Partially thanks to El Niño-influenced Pacific circulation, but really just typical polar/mid-latitude jet interaction(s).

[Phil]

Do you think it will seep down to the BC border around my area?

I have no idea. To predict something like that requires a level of precision that doesn't exist as of now.

 

If the aformentioned upstream wave break (which you see as a large offshore high trying to nudge poleward) gains sufficient amplitude before being decapitated aloft, then I suspect the Arctic front will reach the border.

 

A lot can change from now until then. I'm just making a general prediction based on what I know and have observed in the past. What ultimately results is anyone's guess, given the complicated nature of these interactions.

[stuffradio]

GFS 12Z OP doesn't look great for arctic air. Today into tomorrow is the wettest period for the next 16 days.

[stuffradio]

I have no idea. To predict something like that requires a level of precision that doesn't exist as of now.

 

If the aformentioned upstream wave break (which you see as a large offshore high trying to nudge poleward) gains sufficient amplitude before being decapitated aloft, then I suspect it may reach the border.

Thanks. I just want snow for Christmas.

[bainbridgekid]

Some gusts so far:

 

SEA: 40 mph

Bremerton: 51 mph

Everett: 49 mph

 

Breezy but nothing too exciting yet here in Mountlake Terrace.