PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[Gradient Keeper]

Who am I in this ? lol

Oh, and 00z EPS = YES! BIG pattern change! C'MON!!!!

[The Blob]

Ypu guys are talking as if you were stuck in Barstow. Those places are much better looking than any desert town in SoCal.

[Phil]

Global temperatures are now exactly average with respect to the 1979-2000 baseline.

Let’s keep this going.

[Geos]

Bit of rain today (Friday), some sun, little wind to boot. I think I saw 52 at one point. Looks like we're going to see some pretty benign weather for awhile.

[umadbro]

Are we allowed to write off winter yet or is that still not allowed by Jim?

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Are we allowed to write off winter yet or is that still not allowed by Jim?

Based on the activity on this forum it’s pretty much written off already. 

[TacomaWaWx]

We’re up to 0.14” so far this month. Low of 41 this morning. About as boring as it gets in late winter. 

[T-Town]

11 hours ago, MossMan said:

Matt- Andy Samberg 

Jim- Chevy Chase 

Andrew- Sam Elliott 

Chris- Mike Leach 

Tim- Christopher McDonald

Snowmizer- John Paul Tremblay

Phil- Wayne Knight 

Front Ranger- Jim Parsons 

Brian in Leavenworth- Mike Rowe

To be continued with many others. 

 

 

 

Someone has to be played by John Goodman as Walter Solchak. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

Someone has to be played by John Goodman as Walter Solchak. 

I just flashed on a cleaned up version of the little Larry meltdown after an arduous Arctic model fail. Brilliant!

[T-Town]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I just flashed on a cleaned up version of the little Larry meltdown after an arduous Arctic model fail. Brilliant!

Is this your snowmap Larry?!?!?!!

[MossMan]

Memories! 
Anyway it’s currently cloudy and 42 degrees. 
.78” for the month, 7.96 for the year. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am writing this morning to officially declare winter over in the lowlands. It was a lame winter, not much happened outside one week, hopefully next winter is better. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 years ago today. Back when it used to snow. 

[TacomaWaWx]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

3 years ago today. Back when it used to snow. 

Yeah I guess the 30” of snow in December doesn’t mean much

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah I guess the 30” of snow in December doesn’t mean much

It would mean more if we had a few inches in February and March. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 years ago, the last time we had arctic air...

COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-

NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VERNONIA...SALEM...MCMINNVILLE..

SANDY...SWEET HOME

1059 PM PST WED FEB 5 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST

FRIDAY FOR THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY...NORTHWEST OREGON COAST

RANGE...AND THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS..

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM

THURSDAY TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY. THIS REPLACES THE WINTER STORM WATCH

FOR HEAVY SNOW WHICH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...DEVELOPING THURSDAY MORNING...INCREASING THURSDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN EASING OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

* ACCUMULATION...3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...4 TO 8

INCHES IN THE NORTH OREGON FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST OREGON

COAST RANGE.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE...SALEM...MCMINNVILLE...SANDY...SWEET

HOME...VERNONIA.

* IMPACTS...A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY

DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE THURSDAY EVENING COMMUTE.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It would mean more if we had a few inches in February and March. 

I think it’s much more likely than not you see something before winter/early spring is over. Your area does really well in late winter. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Idk Andrew…seems a little premature to call this winter a wrap when we can only reliably see 7-10 days in advance and it’s February 5th. There’s no hope right now but we know how fast that can change. Have had a lot of chilly events with lowland snow in late February/early March over the last few years. February 2018, March 2019 and March 2020. 

[rsktkr]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I am writing this morning to officially declare winter over in the lowlands. It was a lame winter, not much happened outside one week, hopefully next winter is better. 

You could have posted this a month ago and you would have been just as right as you are now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I think it’s much more likely than not you see something before winter/early spring is over. Your area does really well in late winter. 

We do, and part of me things something's got to give. I am sticking the fork for those under 1000'. We could still have some big events up here, but there is nothing in the offing as of now. Our last accumulating snow last winter was February 3rd, so it's possible winter is over even up here. 

In 2020 our last accumulating snow was April 1st. 

[Deweydog]

Winter ends in a little less than 542 hours.

It’s February 5th.

[TacomaWaWx]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Winter ends in a little less than 542 hours.

It’s February 5th.

Our window is probably 710 hours adding in the first week of March…and we can only reliably see 168-240 hours out roughly sometimes not even that far. Not saying it will happen just that it could. 

[Ray]

I'm at the end of my 5th decade of winters in this area.  In my opinion this has been a pretty decent winter.  Granted it has been far from epic but we all know how rare those events are.  It has also been far from a bust too.  The December/January snow and cold were awesome.  We have had a fair amount of sunny days along with dreary days.  Personally I liked the fog but realize I'm in the minority there.  My gut feeling just from living here for so long is that we probably won't see much exciting for the rest of the winter.  Hopefully I'm proven wrong though.  

[TT-SEA]

Definitely some signs of spring around here.   We have things starting to pop up in our yard and I noticed when driving to Issaquah the other day that its greening up along the freeway and the grass seems to be growing again.    I remember seeing the same thing in January 2019 and then it all went dormant again until the middle of March.    This year feels a little different though.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Ray said:

I'm at the end of my 50th decade of winters in this area.  In my opinion this has been a pretty decent winter.  Granted it has been far from epic but we all know how rare those events are.  It has also been far from a bust too.  The December/January snow and cold were awesome.  We have had a fair amount of sunny days along with dreary days.  Personally I liked the fog but realize I'm in the minority there.  My gut feeling just from living here for so long is that we probably won't see much exciting for the rest of the winter.  Hopefully I'm proven wrong though.  

Happy 500 years!   What was it like back in the 1600s here?   

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z GFS ensembles at least are hinting at cooler and wetter conditions returning after mid month even if there’s nothing arctic coming up we could use a good mountain snow pattern late Feb into March 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Eh, we had 10” of sloppy seconds snow that was pretty weird and interesting for that week in late Dec, which is more than what happens in most years so it was great relative to expectations here.

Sadly, it’s been a really long time since we’ve had Arctic air get to the Eugene area. Used to be way more commonplace before but now seems to have dropped off a cliff over the last half-decade or so.

[TacomaWaWx]

I know December wasn’t as good down in Oregon as it was in Puget sound but it was a great event (wish I had been here for it). 8 days straight of snow and legit cold on the 27th. Pretty rare to get such a decent stretch like that aligned with the holidays. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Eh, we had 10” of sloppy seconds snow that was pretty weird and interesting for that week in late Dec, which is more than what happens in most years so it was great relative to expectations here.

Sadly, it’s been a really long time since we’ve had Arctic air get to the Eugene area. Used to be way more commonplace before but now seems to have dropped off a cliff over the last half-decade or so.

It’s hard to figure out how anyone who lives in the western lowlands could downplay a 10” snowfall 

[Deweydog]

It’s 2 bad it’s a little harder to go back to 2012 at this time to see all the ridiculous winter cancel posts.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It’s 2 bad it’s a little harder to go back to 2012 at this time to see all the ridiculous winter cancel posts.

Has Andrew ever talked about March 2012?   

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z Euro shows a chilly system dropping in on Valentine’s 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Has Andrew ever talked about March 2012?   

We also had a massive event in mid-January that year and 20" of precip in January. Then things went fairly quiet, but we had a decent snowfall on Valentine's Day, and then things really took off from there. December was cool and dryish that year, but other than that it was wall to wall activity. But yeah, we had 60" of snow February 14-April 4th. That early April trough in 2012 was outstanding too. 

[MossMan]

Since it has been a few days since we have looked over the PNA…

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Since it has been a few days since we have looked over the PNA…

Maybe we can check back in a few more days.

[TT-SEA]

It was drizzling when I woke up... but the sun is coming out now and up to 48 here.     I think we have a shot at 60 tomorrow here in the foothills.    

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z EpS still showing some hope for a mid month pattern change as well

[awright-31]

02-04-2022 OBS for MBY

High temp - 47* at 12:30 pm
Low temp - 40* at 6:00 am

New precip - 0.16"
February precip to date- 0.21"
We have recieved 4% of our normal February precip 14% of the way through the month.

New snow - 0"
Winter 21-22 Snow to Date - 10.9"

[Phil]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Definitely some signs of spring around here.   We have things starting to pop up in our yard and I noticed when driving to Issaquah the other day that its greening up along the freeway and the grass seems to be growing again.    I remember seeing the same thing in January 2019 and then it all went dormant again until the middle of March.    This year feels a little different though.

Interestingly, not even the daffodils are poking up here. Ground is frozen as solid as cement, which caused yesterday’s rain to run off like crazy and flood places that rarely flood even in summer.

Upper teens/low 20s again tonight. Been a very persistent, albeit not extreme, cold.

[TT-SEA]

21 minutes ago, Phil said:

Interestingly, not even the daffodils are poking up here. Ground is frozen as solid as cement, which caused yesterday’s rain to run off like crazy and flood places that rarely flood even in summer.

Upper teens/low 20s again tonight. Been a very persistent, albeit not extreme, cold.

Was wandering around the yard just now enjoying the sun and took a couple pics for you.