PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

That was a historically bad call. But also a fluky event resulting from a trapped wavetrain.

These thresholds in the climate system are insane. The same forcing can produce polar opposite regional responses with the slightest tweaks in initial boundary conditions/tendencies. fluid dynamics hard lul

Never as easy as taking a particular system state and projecting. Statistical methods have their limits.

ftfy

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Agreed. In researching the Southern Plains some more, you don't even have to go very far north from Dallas, probably right around the Red River, to simply find much more dynamic winters than this region has to offer. With actual arctic fronts and 2-3 legit winter storms (usually with a mixed bag of frozen precip) even in the worst years. And then tons of severe opportunities.

The big tradeoff for most of the Midwest of course is the landscape and natural beauty. And the sweltering summers, which increasingly are happening here anyways so that's kind of whatever at this point.

Living in NE Oklahoma for 4 years, we had several events which were much more dynamic than anything we've ever had while I lived here. My current location of course can score much much more snow than they do, but the frequency of arctic fronts in the winter there is probably something most people who have lived in our climate all their lives can even understand. Some of those towns in NE Oklahoma, like Bartlesville, Nowata, Claremore, Talequah, etc... Are great spots for radiational cooling too. 

[TT-SEA]

25 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

No arguments on the drab landscape, but keep in mind that their "boring" stretches in the winter are still going to be 35-40 degree sunny days that probably have some snow on the ground.... basically the equivalent of our best days in the winter. And their hot/humid summers have plenty of thunderstorms and severe opportunities.

It's simply a way better climate if you like seasons, extremes, and variety, which most of us do.

No doubt its a great place for seasonal extremes.   Minnesota claims to be the Super Bowl of weather.     But northern and eastern MN is forested with rolling hills and lakes.... while SW MN and eastern SD is basically a Moses Lake landscape.  Endless flat farm fields with trees planted around farmhouses for a wind break.    Phil's area has a much more interesting landscape with the occasional blizzards and crazy summer thunderstorms.    His comment did not really make sense. 

Side note... SW MN and eastern SD can have long stretches in the winter with no snow on the ground.   Its going to be in the low 50s there early next week.   And when there is no snow on the ground... the landscape is entirely dull brown.   I think of Kayla's area has being a true winter wonderland paradise.    

[Meatyorologist]

Getting to that #szn again.... Deep inversions being replaced with death ridging and mixed thermo profiles. Haven't seen a projected sounding like this since October 

Soon I'll be on the lookout for convective SE'lies.... Or if we're really lucky, actual marine pushes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

No doubt its a great place for seasonal extremes.   Minnesota claims to be the Super Bowl of weather.     But northern and eastern MN is forested with rolling hills and lakes.... while SW MN and eastern SD is basically a Moses Lake landscape.  Endless flat farm fields with trees planted around farmhouses for a wind break.    Phil's area has a much more interesting landscape with the occasional blizzard and crazy summer thunderstorms.    His comment did not really make sense. 

Side note... SW MN and eastern SD can have long stretches in the winter with no snow on the ground.   Its going to be in the low 50s there early next week.   And when there is no snow on the ground... the landscape is entirely dull brown.   I think of Kayla's area has being a true winter wonderland paradise.    

Nothing is as bad as Moses Lake. 

[Snownerd3000]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

When it finally happens it will probably be to late for folks under 1000'. 

yep

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nothing is as bad as Moses Lake. 

Well... they actually do have a lake there.   So it could be worse.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well... they actually do have a lake there.   So it could be worse.  

Hmmmm... Whenever I've driven through it looks like desert with blowing garbage. Perhaps you found the one nice pic on the one week of the year when things are green in that area. You know how I feel about Tri-Cities, then there is Yakima below that, and Moses Lake below that... Well then if we want to keep going there is Ritzville...

[Phil]

23 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

ftfy

Lol. What I’ve learned is that no amount of education can actually teach you how to foresee the outcome of state-dependent bifurcation points.

In the rare cases where I can merely recognize the existence of a bifurcation point, predicting the path the system will take is hopeless until it’s already game time.

Even our most advanced numerical models generally cannot do it. Nowhere near enough computing power. Which is why statistical models/methods tend to outperform dynamical models/methods for seasonal/subseasonal predictions. Because tendencies inherent to the system (but impossible to quantify) are, by default, included in statistical methods.

But those tendencies themselves can be state dependent! And when they are, you’re hosed.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Our long term predictions usually skew towards the extremes too. We either go with an epic winter or a total dud. 75% of winters are in the boring in between zone. 

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No doubt its a great place for seasonal extremes.   Minnesota claims to be the Super Bowl of weather.     But northern and eastern MN is forested with rolling hills and lakes.... while SW MN and eastern SD is basically a Moses Lake landscape.  Endless flat farm fields with trees planted around farmhouses for a wind break.    Phil's area has a much more interesting landscape with the occasional blizzard and crazy summer thunderstorms.    His comment did not really make sense. 

Side note... SW MN and eastern SD can have long stretches in the winter with no snow on the ground.   Its going to be in the low 50s there early next week.   And when there is no snow on the ground... the landscape is entirely dull brown.   I think of Kayla's area has being a true winter wonderland paradise.    

No doubt I would prefer the aesthetic of western MT.

Or the Great Lakes region, which is quite distinct both culturally and aesthetically from the Plains, but usually all gets lumped in together by coastal elites as "Midwest" all the same. Marquette, MI would be pretty awesome if the economy wasn't so limited. Nice forested little snow belt with temperate summers and an average snow depth of 25" in the winter.  And right next to Lake Superior, which while not quite the Pacific is basically just an inland sea.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

No doubt I would prefer the aesthetic of western MT.

Or the Great Lakes region, which is quite distinct both culturally and aesthetically from the Plains, but usually all gets lumped in together by coastal elites as "Midwest" all the same. Marquette, MI would be pretty awesome if the economy wasn't so limited. Nice forested little snow belt with temperate summers and an average snow depth of 25" in the winter.  And right next to Lake Superior, which while not quite the Pacific is basically just an inland sea.  

Northern Michigan is probably one of the cheapest places to buy property in the US too. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hmmmm... Whenever I've driven through it looks like desert with blowing garbage. Perhaps you found the one nice pic on the one week of the year when things are green in that area. You know how I feel about Tri-Cities, then there is Yakima below that, and Moses Lake below that... Well then if we want to keep going there is Ritzville...

Yeah... its pretty ugly overall.   Just saying it does have a lake and that helps.  

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Our long term predictions usually skew towards the extremes too. We either go with an epic winter or a total dud. 75% of winters are in the boring in between zone. 

If the Euro weeklies had any say in it, we would have verified between eight and twelve regional Arctic blasts in the last 14 months or so.

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lol. What I’ve learned is that no amount of education can actually teach you how to foresee the outcome of state-dependent bifurcation points.

In the rare cases where I can merely recognize the existence of a bifurcation point, predicting the path the system will take is hopeless until it’s already game time.

Even our most advanced numerical models cannot do it. Nowhere near enough computing power. Which is why statistical models/methods tend to outperform dynamical models/methods for seasonal/subseasonal predictions. Because tendencies inherent to the system, but impossible to quantify, are present in statistical methods by default.

But those tendencies themselves can be state dependent!! And when they are, you’re basically hosed.

Big scary words aside, that was a hilariously terrible call for a cool trough in late June.

Not even blaming you man, predicting the weather weeks in advance is nearly impossible, and I would have performed no better. But seriously, iirc you were warning Tim about the impending trough. Literally the most extreme heatwave in our region's history followed. In a La Niña June. What the hell man. 

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Northern Michigan is probably one of the cheapest places to buy property in the US too. 

In 80 years or so it'll be the hottest market in the country as CA, AZ, and FL will by then be fully unlivable. Buy now and your grandkids will thank you.

[Phil]

32 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I said it before and I'll say it again: there are ways June 2021 could have been hotter. That was NOT a worst case scenario.

True, but how the June 2021 event unfolded was also extremely unlikely and required an ocean of variables to align perfectly.

The likelihood of such an anomalous state repeating in our lifetimes is very low, even under a crazy RCP8.5 scenario in tandem with high ESC and TCR. Which is almost certainly bulls**t.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Big scary words aside, that was a hilariously terrible call for a cool trough in late June.

Not even blaming you man, predicting the weather weeks in advance is nearly impossible, and I would have performed no better. But seriously, iirc you were warning Tim about the impending trough. Literally the most extreme heatwave in our region's history followed. In a La Niña June. What the hell man. 

Yeah... that was a pretty crazy swing from prediction to reality last June.    The entire summer was sort of surprising after about June 15th.   It was a very sunny and warm summer overall.   And even warmer out here than in Seattle.    Not what I was expecting in the middle of a multi-year Nina at low solar.

[TT-SEA]

I also recall that Phil called last summer pretty well with a dominate 4CH.     He got tangled up in trolling me a few times but he was pretty much on track outside of the freak event in late June.

So Phil... what does summer 2022 hold in store?     Positive or negative on the TIM index?  

[BLI snowman]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hmmmm... Whenever I've driven through it looks like desert with blowing garbage. Perhaps you found the one nice pic on the one week of the year when things are green in that area. You know how I feel about Tri-Cities, then there is Yakima below that, and Moses Lake below that... Well then if we want to keep going there is Ritzville...

I drove through Umatilla, OR last year and was amazed at how big of a shithole it was. They might take the cake. I'm sure Tim knows all the best motels and restaurants in the area, though.

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

True, but how the June 2021 event unfolded was also extremely unlikely and required an ocean of variables to align perfectly.

The likelihood of such an anomalous state repeating in our lifetimes is very low, even under a crazy RCP8.5 scenario in tandem with high ESC and TCR. Which is almost certainly bulls**t.

well now you've all but guaranteed it

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

I drove through Umatilla, OR last year and was amazed at how big of a shithole it was. They might take the cake. I'm sure Tim knows all the best motels and restaurants in the area, though.

I used to have to go to Pendleton many times for work back in the 2008-2010 time frame.   Umatilla is a dump.  

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Big scary words aside, that was a hilariously terrible call for a cool trough in late June.

Not even blaming you man, predicting the weather weeks in advance is nearly impossible, and I would have performed no better. But seriously, iirc you were warning Tim about the impending trough. Literally the most extreme heatwave in our region's history followed. In a La Niña June. What the hell man. 

I forgot Tim has a weather machine.  Won’t make that mistake again.

My forecast for this winter was also complete garbage. Yet another case of constructive interference of a subseasonal state unforeseeable by both humans and computer models (except Judah, apparently).

Which is why I’m done attempting ‘high-precision’ seasonal scale forecasts from this point on. It’s just not possible right now. Maybe others can pull it off, but I can’t. Going to stick to broad statistical methods for now.

 

[jakeinthevalley]

7 hours ago, Deweydog said:

We should also vote for winters’ best dressed member, most likely to succeed, most kissable…

Well, I checked all those boxes in high school, so......

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

I forgot Tim has a weather machine.  Won’t make that mistake again.

My forecast for this winter was also complete garbage. Yet another case of constructive interference of a subseasonal state unforeseeable by both humans and computer models (except Judah, apparently).

Which is why I’m done attempting ‘high-precision’ seasonal scale forecasts from this point on. It’s just not possible right now. Maybe others can pull it off, but I can’t. Going to stick to broad statistical methods for now.

 

If I had a weather machine... late June 2021 would not have happened.   One of the worst weather events that I have experienced here.  

Still curious about the big picture forecast for summer 2022.   

 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I forgot Tim has a weather machine.  Won’t make that mistake again.

My forecast for this winter was also complete garbage. Yet another case of constructive interference of a subseasonal state unforeseeable by both humans and computer models (except Judah, apparently).

Which is why I’m officially done attempting high-precision seasonal scale forecasts from this point on. It’s just not possible right now. Maybe others can pull it off, but I can’t. 

 

I wouldn't say it's likely anyone can, at least for the next few decades. And you are right more often than you give yourself credit for. Of course this January into February is a curveball I never expected. At least it hasn't been a torch down here in the valley, where we ran a -2°F for Jan and are currently running a -3°F for Feb so far. Inversion szn definitely saved us... Not so lucky further south.

In fact temperature wise, it's behaved pretty much like a relatively normal -ENSO winter. 3 out of the last 4 months below normal, with the one exception being November, which is a classic Niña signature. Mostly wetter than normal with an active storm track, and a substantial arctic outbreak at the end of December. From an upper level standpoint it's been an awkward mixed bag, but sfc response has been...shall we call it fortunate.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

That is sort of silly.    Sioux Falls is just a warmer version of Minneapolis without all the trees and lakes.   It will be fun for him... but its much more hot and humid in the summer than here and there are long stretches during the winter when its pretty boring.   Its basically a flat and mostly treeless landscape.    I would think you would ache with envy over someone moving to SE Alaska where its 52 degrees and drizzling all summer.  

It’s all relative. I’d hate constant 52/drizzle as well. But still better than sweating off 10lbs walking to the mailbox.

I’m perfectly fine with a warm/dry airmass. Denver is awesome because they get decent thunderstorms without the humidity. I could live with that.

[RentonHill]

36 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hmmmm... Whenever I've driven through it looks like desert with blowing garbage. Perhaps you found the one nice pic on the one week of the year when things are green in that area. You know how I feel about Tri-Cities, then there is Yakima below that, and Moses Lake below that... Well then if we want to keep going there is Ritzville...

Ritzville popped into my head before i got to the end 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I wouldn't say it's likely anyone can, at least for the next few decades. And you are right more often than you give yourself credit for. Of course this January into February is a curveball I never expected. At least it hasn't been a torch down here in the valley, where we ran a -2°F for Jan and are currently running a -3°F for Feb so far. Inversion szn definitely saved us... Not so lucky further south.

In fact temperature wise, it's behaved pretty much like a relatively normal -ENSO winter. 3 out of the last 4 months below normal, with the one exception being November, which is a classic Niña signature. Mostly wetter than normal with an active storm track, and a substantial arctic outbreak at the end of December. From an upper level standpoint it's been an awkward mixed bag, but sfc response has been...shall we call it fortunate.

I don't get how inversions are lucky.  In the big picture there is no precipitation in the region and its sunny and warm in the mountains.   And the air is polluted in the lowlands.   A few people on here get so angry about even a tiny amount of smoke haze in the summer but happily take polluted inversions to get cold stats.     

[Meatyorologist]

18z GFS has a pretty standard ridge breakdown around mid month. I am inclined to believe it given climo, but I've been burned before. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Ritzville popped into my head before i got to the end 

Such an unfortunate name for a city given its location!  

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s all relative. I’d hate constant 52/drizzle as well. But still better than sweating off 10lbs walking to the mailbox.

I’m perfectly fine with a warm/dry airmass. Denver is awesome because they get decent thunderstorms without the humidity. I could live with that.

Good take... thanks for being honest. 

I need to save this post for the next time you tell me the best weather is 52 degree drizzle all summer.   I knew you really didn't think that.  

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I don't get how inversions are lucky.  In the big picture there is no precipitation in the region and its sunny and warm in the mountains.   And the air is polluted in the lowlands.   People on here get so angry about even a tiny amount of smoke haze in the summer but happily take polluted inversions to get cold stats.     

Didn't feel so polluted down here. And inversions can partially mix, allowing for temporary relief. In fact it was a roughly 50/50 split in days which cleared out and days that stayed cloudy all afternoon. Smoke also has a palpable smell and makes the sun turn an erie orange hue, and is usually associated with uncomfortably hot weather, not to mention the inherent (but arguably necessary) death of distant nature.

Also it was a brisk 38°F for much of the cloudier afternoons in January. Much better than sweating my @ss off. Also I like fog.

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

18z GFS has a pretty standard ridge breakdown around mid month. I am inclined to believe it given climo, but I've been burned before. 

I think it's much more likely than a full latitude retrograde and cold air dump. Pacific has to wake up again at some point. Some splitty stuff followed by a ridge breakdown and jet extension feels like a good bet.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

I think it's much more likely than a full latitude retrograde and cold air dump. Pacific has to wake up again at some point. Some splitty stuff followed by a ridge breakdown and jet extension feels like a good bet.

Exactly. It just looks "right" the way the pattern progresses

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If I had a weather machine... late June 2021 would not have happened.   One of the worst weather events that I have experienced here.  

Still curious about the big picture forecast for summer 2022.   

 

I’m not sure yet. I don’t make winter forecasts in early August either.

If I had to guess I’d say a warm summer is favored in the West. But there are ways it could be short-circuited (or delayed later into the season).

Warm season hints start to emerge more clearly in March/April.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Didn't feel so polluted down here. And inversions can partially mix, allowing for temporary relief. In fact it was a roughly 50/50 split in days which cleared out and days that stayed cloudy all afternoon. Smoke also has a palpable smell and makes the sun turn an erie orange hue, and is usually associated with uncomfortably hot weather, not to mention the inherent (but arguably necessary) death of distant nature.

Also it was a brisk 38°F for much of the cloudier afternoons in January. Much better than sweating my @ss off. Also I like fog.

Fair enough... but the AQI was pretty similar to our modestly hazy periods in the summer.   Obviously not comparing to the smokeageddon of September 2020 which was truly horrific.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

32 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I drove through Umatilla, OR last year and was amazed at how big of a shithole it was. They might take the cake. I'm sure Tim knows all the best motels and restaurants in the area, though.

Umatilla and Hermiston are pretty bad. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Exactly. It just looks "right" the way the pattern progresses

Probably right... but even that still could feature some c-zone snow events for the lowlands.   

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Fair enough... but the AQI was pretty similar to our modestly hazy periods in the summer.   Obviously not comparing to the smokeageddon of September 2020 which was truly horrific.

I'm not sure much of anything could compare to that. Though to its credit, we did sample for a few days what a supervolcanic eruption would do to our weather. Stayed cloudy and cool w/o much diurnal range, and insane insolation. From a meteorological standpoint it was fascinating. But please... Never, ever again.