PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Wonder what Jim’s house is worth in cold anomalies?

It is Priceless!!

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Wonder what Jim’s house is worth in cold anomalies?

Priceless.    

[GHweatherChris]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Priceless.    

Jinx, buy me a coke!!

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I don’t have any hope for next winter. Hate to say it but we’re due for a snowless dud probably. 

If the +ENSO transition is real, then this could be the shot across the bow. Niña Februaries don’t typically produce patterns like this.

[LowerGarfield]

3 hours ago, Tyler Mode said:

Is this a real estate forum now

Too much amplification?

 

[MossMan]

56 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

January 2023

November 2022 and January 2023! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Clear and down to 37 after a high of 48 morning was cloudy and drizzly but the sun started to peek out around 2-3pm

[TacomaWaWx]

33 minutes ago, Phil said:

If the +ENSO transition is real, then this could be the shot across the bow. Niña Februaries don’t typically produce patterns like this.

I just get the feeling we’re due for a horrible winter stretch like February 2014-December 2016. Has been a long time since we’ve had a really bad winter here. 

[The Blob]

Foggy outside

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I just get the feeling we’re due for a horrible winter stretch like February 2014-December 2016. Has been a long time since we’ve had a really bad winter here. 

I think it’s really hard to say. A huge dud is always possible. In a lot of ways it comes down to something of a chance. Sometimes things break our way, sometimes they don’t. We could also have a much more active /colder winter all around total strike out on snow. 

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

November 2022 and January 2023! 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I just get the feeling we’re due for a horrible winter stretch like February 2014-December 2016. Has been a long time since we’ve had a really bad winter here. 

Maybe, though might be just 1 year.

I suspect this will be a single year niño followed by another multiyear Niña. At least that’s the favored outcome at this point in the cycle of the solar/IPWP relationship.

The really rough stretches in PNW winters often occur near solar maximum in non Niña/+QBO years, or in the downswing portion of the solar cycle (lagged pacific warm pool response to solar maximum).

The +ENSO response at the tail of solar minimum is usually a sharp, 1-1.5 year event (1957/58, 1965/66, 1986/87 + 1st half of 1988, 1997/98, 2009/10, etc). Exceptions are cases like the great 1976 climate shift which had muted ENSO but large scale changes to atmospheric circulation.

[MossMan]

I just informed my dog that winter is over. 

[The Blob]

Dense fog alert for PDX. Took this around 8pm

[Gradient Keeper]

How did that EPS end up? Here is Day 6-10. Ridge retrogrades, but no idea if Day 11+ it amplifies.

[Meatyorologist]

2013-2016 had a lot of torching, but also a lot of summer thunderstorms and strong windstorms.

[Cloud]

The "dud" cycle... aka 0 snow. Setting up nicely for next winter. Happens anywhere between 4-5  years. Can definitely see it happening. 

[Meatyorologist]

On 2/2/2022 at 11:00 PM, Deweydog said:

It’s the hot version of D*ck Proenneke.

Jesse would have downvoted this post

[Meatyorologist]

This might be the driest end to winter I've ever seen here. Wow. Just depressing, especially for the southern half of the region in to the SW.

[T-Town]

A glimmer of hope?

[Gradient Keeper]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Jesse would have downvoted this post

I downvoted this only in the spirit of Jesse.

12z GFS in 2 hours 6 minutes

[TT-SEA]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

This might be the driest end to winter I've ever seen here. Wow. Just depressing, especially for the southern half of the region in to the SW.

In the end... it won't matter for WA because this will almost certainly be made up in the March - May period.   And probably well into June.

I was definitely cheering for a wet February but that seems unlikely now.

[TT-SEA]

Saw this going around... pretty funny.   And actually fits Seattle perfectly.   

[TT-SEA]

3 hours ago, Cloud said:

The "dud" cycle... aka 0 snow. Setting up nicely for next winter. Happens anywhere between 4-5  years. Can definitely see it happening. 

Some of those years obviously had extended periods of cold and snow... but some of those years come down to just a few hours of snow falling.    In Seattle... one single day can swing an entire winter season from a total dud to snowy.    Seems so random but does seem to follow a repeating pattern.  

[SnarkyGoblin]

51 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In the end... it won't matter for WA because this will almost certainly be made up in the March - May period.   And probably well into June.

I was definitely cheering for a wet February but that seems unlikely now.

Where is your confidence coming from on this?  Haven't we been in drought, particularly on the east side, for the last several years?

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, einsteinjr said:

Where is your confidence coming from on this?  Haven't we been in drought, particularly on the east side, for the last several years?

Really referring to western WA.    We are not in a drought and have not been in a drought.     And wet periods come in regular cycles around here.  This dry period will almost certainly be offset by another wet period ahead. 

[TT-SEA]

I still think the end of February and the first part of March offers significant potential.    Maybe not as good as 2011... but there is a chance.    There almost has to be retrogression eventually.    

[MossMan]

Raining. 

[RentonHill]

At the end of each winter everyone should get to vote to ban one member. If anyone gets a certain threshold of votes they’re banned. Sort of a survivor/baseball hall of fame style voting that gives everyone something to look forward to each end of winter.

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

At the end of each winter everyone should get to vote to ban one member. If anyone gets a certain threshold of votes they’re banned. Sort of a survivor/baseball hall of fame style voting that gives everyone something to look forward to each end of winter.

I think it should be the opposite. We vote to bring one banned member back!

[RentonHill]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I think it should be the opposite. We vote to bring one banned member back!

Why not both

[SnarkyGoblin]

55 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Really referring to western WA.    We are not in a drought and have not been in a drought.     And wet periods come in regular cycles around here.  This dry period will almost certainly be offset by another wet period ahead. 

Looking at only Western WA is pretty short sighted when considering drought, don't you think?  I very much prefer my air not to be filled with smoke.  

And wasn't much of WW in drought last year starting in July?

Not all of us can just fly somewhere else to get away from weather conditions we don't like.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Why not both

We should also vote for winters’ best dressed member, most likely to succeed, most kissable…

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well the last real hurdle in the process was the appraisal coming in at what we sold it for. I was not too optimistic and was planning to have to re-negotiate with our buyer. I just didn't think there would be enough comps for our 1200 sq ft house to come in at $620k. 

BUT we got some great news this morning.... Appraisal came in at the full price!!!! OMG we are so incredibly ecstatic!! No worry about re-negotiating or maybe having to take our chances on the market if it came in too low. NOPE! Full price. WOW! Should be smooth sailing from here on out. Woohooooooooo!!

Appraisals are an absolute joke. After they tightened the reigns following the mid-2000’s subprime ridiculousness, they’ve managed to return to a new version of the same seller-oriented garbage. Congrats though!

[TT-SEA]

55 minutes ago, einsteinjr said:

Looking at only Western WA is pretty short sighted when considering drought, don't you think?  I very much prefer my air not to be filled with smoke.  

And wasn't much of WW in drought last year starting in July?

Not all of us can just fly somewhere else to get away from weather conditions we don't like.

I am just saying another wet period is very likely for western WA.   I am not making a statement about the entire West Coast.    Although an El Nino would probably be very welcome in the big picture for the western US.    Smoke is a part of every summer in the western US.    It often comes down to luck.      We largely escaped smoke last summer despite record heat and very dry weather. 

And western WA has mostly avoided drought conditions over the last decade... other than a couple months here or there. 

[TT-SEA]

20 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well the last real hurdle in the process was the appraisal coming in at what we sold it for. I was not too optimistic and was planning to have to re-negotiate with our buyer. I just didn't think there would be enough comps for our 1200 sq ft house to come in at $620k. 

BUT we got some great news this morning.... Appraisal came in at the full price!!!! OMG we are so incredibly ecstatic!! No worry about re-negotiating or maybe having to take our chances on the market if it came in too low. NOPE! Full price. WOW! Should be smooth sailing from here on out. Woohooooooooo!!

Nice!   

When are you leaving for SD?    I hope you keep posting here.  Jared left the PNW years ago and still posts all the time about our weather.  

[SnowWillarrive]

Just spoke to a friend in Arkansas. They got 8 inches of snow.

 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

We leave 3/2 and arrive in Sioux Falls on 3/7. Making a longer road trip out of it to hopefully be easier on our two boys so they don't have to sit in the car for 8+ hours.

I definitely plan to keep posting here in the vein of Jared, Kayla, etc. Most of our family is still in WA (at least for now) and the climate still fascinates me. It will be slightly hard to let go as I've never lived anywhere besides western WA but luckily I'll have this place to live vicariously through you guys, and vice versa. 

Awesome.   

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Just spoke to a friend in Arkansas. They got 8 inches of snow.

 

Your name was accurate for them! Nice work!

[TacomaWaWx]

Got down to 39 this morning. Sprinkling out in parkland.