PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Got down to 39 this morning. Sprinkling out in parkland. 

Do you get to move around to different locations every day for new job?    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Just spoke to a friend in Arkansas. They got 8 inches of snow.

 

Yeah my oldest kids who live near Tulsa got about 6". Fun stuff, when I was out there last weekend it was in the mid-60s. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Got down to 31F overnight so another freeze. Very nice.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS gets close to retrogression later in the run.    

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up getting a freeze last evening before fog formed for a 48/32 day currently foggy and 35 this morning 

[Phishy Wx]

  Clouds in my coffee, clouds in my coffee

[Deweydog]

33 years ago right now we were entering a strong warming trend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 years ago today.

8 years ago today...

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

3 years ago today.

8 years ago today...

3 years ago today for me.

I think there was some snow at my house, but just cold and windy downtown.

 

[TT-SEA]

Adams County Ohio takes winter driving seriously...threatening to arrest anyone caught driving!    Never heard of that before. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

56 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Adams County Ohio takes winter driving seriously...threatening to arrest anyone caught driving!    Never heard of that before. 

 

Wow.

[RentonHill]

EPS

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up in PDX today. Quite a bit cloudier than 100 miles south.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

EPS

Retrogression!

[MossMan]

2011. 

[MossMan]

Memories! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

47 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

EPS

When it finally happens it will probably be to late for folks under 1000'. 

[Phil]

5 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

We leave 3/2 and arrive in Sioux Falls on 3/7. Making a longer road trip out of it to hopefully be easier on our two boys so they don't have to sit in the car for 8+ hours at a time.

I definitely plan to keep posting here in the vein of Jared, Kayla, etc. Most of our family is still in WA (at least for now) and the climate still fascinates me. It will be slightly hard to let go as I've never lived anywhere besides western WA but luckily I'll have this place to live vicariously through you guys, and vice versa. 

I’m aching with envy, lol. Once you experience that climate you’re never going to leave.

5 hours ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Just spoke to a friend in Arkansas. They got 8 inches of snow.

 

Meanwhile it was 62 degrees here at 4AM.

[Phil]

This winter is going by way too fast. It’s heartbreaking how close the spring equinox is. Sweat season is just 12 weeks away.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

This winter is going by way too fast. It’s heartbreaking how close the spring equinox is. Sweat season is just 12 weeks away.

It’s February 4th.

February is already over 12% in the past.

[T-Town]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Adams County Ohio takes winter driving seriously...threatening to arrest anyone caught driving!    Never heard of that before. 

 

So…. I need to contact my employer to see if they want me to risk arrest in order to come to work?

[BLI snowman]

18 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It’s February 4th.

February is already over 12% in the past.

Been quite the ride!!

[TT-SEA]

24 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m aching with envy, lol. Once you experience that climate you’re never going to leave.

Meanwhile it was 62 degrees here at 4AM.

That is sort of silly.    Sioux Falls is just a warmer version of Minneapolis without all the trees and lakes.   It will be fun for him... but its much more hot and humid in the summer than here and there are long stretches during the winter when its pretty boring.   Its basically a flat and mostly treeless landscape.    I would think you would ache with envy over someone moving to SE Alaska where its 52 degrees and drizzling all summer.  

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, T-Town said:

So…. I need to contact my employer to see if they want me to risk arrest in order to come to work?

I thought the same thing.  So stupid.  

[Phil]

Strong E-IO/MC MJO event seems to be building. I will be completely and utterly shocked if this doesn’t lead to retrogression/-PNA this month.

 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

Strong E-IO/MC MJO event seems to be building. I will be completely and utterly shocked if this doesn’t lead to retrogression/-PNA this month.

 

Sure feels like a retrogression situation.

 

[Deweydog]

I’d never want to go as far as to research  the validity of this statement, but this late fall and winter has GOT to be top tier when it comes to drizzle days. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Deweydog said:

I’d never want to go as far as to research  the validity of this statement, but this late fall and winter has GOT to be top tier when it comes to drizzle days. 

Tim will be right with you...

[Phil]

Of course, this eventually propagates into the WPAC in March. Putting pressure on the PV and likely allowing the wave to make a complete circuit through p6-7-8, triggering a series of WWBs.

The period around the spring equinox is the sensitive time for ENSO, climatologically. Will probably reinforce the ongoing downwelling OKW and pull the system out of La Niña, possibly very quickly. Exactly *how* quickly is still debatable, should this unfold.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Of course, this eventually propagates into the WPAC in March. Putting pressure on the PV and likely allowing the wave to make a complete circuit through p6-7-8, triggering a series of WWBs.

The period around the spring equinox is the sensitive time for ENSO, climatologically. Will probably reinforce the ongoing downwelling OKW and pull the system out of La Niña, possibly very quickly.

The inevitable summer torch 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We go from non-winter straight into summer. Of course last year Phil said there would be a west-coast trough focused on the last week of June. 

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is sort of silly.    Sioux Falls is just a warmer version of Minneapolis without all the trees and lakes.   It will be fun for him... but its much more hot and humid in the summer than here and there are long stretches during the winter when its pretty boring.   Its basically a flat and mostly treeless landscape.    I would think you would ache with envy over someone moving to SE Alaska where its 52 degrees and drizzling all summer.  

No arguments on the drab landscape, but keep in mind that their "boring" stretches in the winter are still going to be 35-40 degree sunny days that probably have some snow on the ground.... basically the equivalent of our best days in the winter. And their hot/humid summers have plenty of thunderstorms and severe opportunities.

It's simply a way better climate if you like seasons, extremes, and variety, which most of us do.

[Phil]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

The inevitable summer torch 

A warm summer is statistically favored for sure. But there are ways to avoid it, as unlikely as they may be.

An outcome like 2019, 1997, or 1957 is still possible. But ironically that would probably require a rapid/clean transition into +ENSO (and it can’t be a WPAC centered event).

The dominance of the WPAC warm pool over the last decade stands out, though, and until proven otherwise, I don’t see reason to doubt it this year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

No arguments on the drab landscape, but keep in mind that their "boring" stretches in the winter are still going to be 35-40 degree sunny days that probably have some snow on the ground.... basically the equivalent of our best days in the winter. And their hot/humid summers have plenty of thunderstorms and severe opportunities.

It's simply a way better climate if you like seasons, extremes, and variety, which most of us do.

I found the climate of NE Oklahoma to be much more interesting than our climate here. And Sioux Falls climate is immeasurably more dynamic than that. 

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The inevitable summer torch 

Maybe we'll finally get the 120 degree monkey off our backs in 2022. It's due.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

5 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

We leave 3/2 and arrive in Sioux Falls on 3/7. Making a longer road trip out of it to hopefully be easier on our two boys so they don't have to sit in the car for 8+ hours at a time.

I definitely plan to keep posting here in the vein of Jared, Kayla, etc. Most of our family is still in WA (at least for now) and the climate still fascinates me. It will be slightly hard to let go as I've never lived anywhere besides western WA but luckily I'll have this place to live vicariously through you guys, and vice versa. 

One that nice about the trip to SF is that it is all along I-90.  There is also a regional airport very close by, though no direct flights to SeaTac if you ever come back to visit.  I know at one point there was talk of a direct flight, but no chance these days.

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is sort of silly.    Sioux Falls is just a warmer version of Minneapolis without all the trees and lakes.   It will be fun for him... but its much more hot and humid in the summer than here and there are long stretches during the winter when its pretty boring.   Its basically a flat and mostly treeless landscape.    I would think you would ache with envy over someone moving to SE Alaska where its 52 degrees and drizzling all summer.  

Juneau's average high is around 62-64 during the summer. And it's very normal to have occasional heatwaves into the low 80s or even higher. In July of 1975 they touched 90°F!

Essentially they borrow Seattle's May climate, except frontal systems are more potent, and rainfall is higher/more consistent. Would like it a tad warmer, maybe into the upper 60s/low 70s instead, but one can't pick their poison. After all, the region looks as lush and vibrant as it does for a good reason!

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Maybe we'll finally get the 120 degree monkey off our backs in 2022. It's due.

I said it before and I'll say it again: there are ways June 2021 could have been hotter. That was NOT a worst case scenario.

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We go from non-winter straight into summer. Of course last year Phil said there would be a west-coast trough focused on the last week of June. 

That was a historically bad call. But also a fluky event resulting from a trapped wavetrain. If that were to repeat this summer, I’d likely still miss it (or not believe it in the modeling, since LR model solutions do fluky stuff like like all the time).

These thresholds in the climate system are insane. The same forcing can produce polar opposite regional responses with the slightest tweaks in initial boundary conditions/tendencies.

Never as easy as taking a particular system state and projecting. Statistical methods have their limits.

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I found the climate of NE Oklahoma to be much more interesting than our climate here. And Sioux Falls climate is immeasurably more dynamic than that. 

Agreed. In researching the Southern Plains some more, you don't even have to go very far north from Dallas, probably right around the Red River, to simply find much more dynamic winters than this region has to offer. With actual arctic fronts and 2-3 legit winter storms (usually with a mixed bag of frozen precip) even in the worst years. And then tons of severe opportunities.

The big tradeoff for most of the Midwest of course is the landscape and natural beauty. And the sweltering summers, which increasingly are happening here anyways so that's kind of whatever at this point.