Tom Posted November 7, 2015 Report Share Posted November 7, 2015 It's still 4-5 days out and surprisingly there is a good amount of agreement amongst the models that a system will eject out into the central Plains and rapidly intensify as it heads towards the western Lakes. Looks like this system has a lot of wind, rain and possible severe weather to go along with it. There may be some spotty snows, but that all depends if this storm can deepen enough to create its own cold air. Let's Discuss... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015110712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_17.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 7, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2015 12z Euro with a 984mb bomb near N WI @ 120hr...I love these type of wound up Autumn storms! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 7, 2015 Report Share Posted November 7, 2015 That rain snow line would be right on my doorstep. Nws north platte and goodland both mentioning accumulating snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 7, 2015 Report Share Posted November 7, 2015 This is gonna be a windy event with cold rain. This would be an all out blizzard if it was December!BTW my birthday is Wednesday. Birthday storm for me 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 7, 2015 Report Share Posted November 7, 2015 That is going to be a beautiful storm to track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 7, 2015 Report Share Posted November 7, 2015 Still too early to say how this system will play out but we are in the time span for some of the bigger fall storms on the Great Lakes. We shall see if this is a big one or not. Here is a little information on a couple of the biggest November storms on the lakes November 10' 1975 http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/2006/20060016.pdf November 10, 1998 http://www.nwas.org/digest/papers/2001/Vol25No12/Pg33-Iacopelli.pdf I use these two storms as the benchmark for recent November Storms on the great lakes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 7, 2015 Report Share Posted November 7, 2015 Still too early to say how this system will play out but we are in the time span for some of the bigger fall storms on the Great Lakes. We shall see if this is a big one or not. Here is a little information on a couple of the biggest November storms on the lakes November 10' 1975 http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/2006/20060016.pdf November 10, 1998 http://www.nwas.org/digest/papers/2001/Vol25No12/Pg33-Iacopelli.pdf I use these two storms as the benchmark for recent November Storms on the great lakesNovember 10, 1975 was the day the Fitz sank right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 7, 2015 Report Share Posted November 7, 2015 18z GFS with a 992 SLP centered right over me at 6pm Wednesday. A lot of precip and wind. How long does Lezak think the current LRC will be?? This may be a Christmas storm in the 2nd cycle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted November 7, 2015 Report Share Posted November 7, 2015 Man if this were December this be a all out blizzard with amazing snow totals. Now it probably be a cold rain wind event 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 7, 2015 Report Share Posted November 7, 2015 New DMX afd going with t-storm wording now for Wednesday. Saying temps will be warm enough for rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 7, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2015 18z GFS with a 992 SLP centered right over me at 6pm Wednesday. A lot of precip and wind. How long does Lezak think the current LRC will be?? This may be a Christmas storm in the 2nd cycle.48-49 days is his best guess at the moment... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted November 7, 2015 Report Share Posted November 7, 2015 I hate seeing such a deep storm wasted on cold rain. Hopefully we get one like this right around Christmas and get another Christmas Blizzard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 8, 2015 Report Share Posted November 8, 2015 November 10, 1975 was the day the Fitz sank right?yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 8, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2015 00z Euro still showing a 986mb SLP in W IA. Could be cold enough for some snow now in parts of NE, esp just west of Omaha. If there is a switch-over to Snow Wednesday night, might have some wind driven snow in extremely strong winds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted November 8, 2015 Report Share Posted November 8, 2015 Lot posted this today. Winds look really strong on this system 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 8, 2015 Report Share Posted November 8, 2015 It's going to be a very windy system. Winds just above ground level. Winds like this could easily come down as gusts and during storms. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 9, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2015 Western NE still has a good chance to see some snow out of this system... http://www.weather.gov/images/lbf/GraphiCast/FileL.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 9, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2015 Severe wx looking a bit more impressive now...MO/S IL in the hot spot... http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/day3otlk_0830-640x436.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 9, 2015 Report Share Posted November 9, 2015 NWS Hastings: For Wed. Nov. 11, 2015 THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTTO LOWER SFC TEMPERATURES JUST ENOUGH 32-36 TO LIKELY SEE AT LEASTSOME SNOW. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CERTAINLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOWSO IT IS JUST A MATTER OF COOLING THOSE SFC TEMPERATURES. THE NAMSFC TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE THE MOST REALISTIC DOING A BETTER JOBOF ACCOUNTING FOR THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING DOWN TO THE WETBULBTEMPERATURE WITHIN THE DEFORMATION BAND. THIS WOULD TURN THE RAINOVER TO SNOW ACROSS MOST OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES AS THE DEFORMATIONBAND PUSHES EAST. THE WARM GROUND ALONG WITH AIR TEMPERATURES LIKELYIN THE MID 30S NEAR THE SFC WILL MAKE IT HARD FOR SNOW TOACCUMULATE. THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY RIGHT NOW TO TALKABOUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOMEWHITE ON GRASSY AREAS...PRIMARILY NEBRASKA ZONES 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 9, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2015 12z NAM spitting up some spotty snows in NE...if the defo band can produce some dynamic cooling, you guys can see some fatty wet flakes flying around. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM/2015110912/USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_084.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 9, 2015 Report Share Posted November 9, 2015 4km NAM is showing super cell tracks in IL, IA and MO!Starting to think about 11/17/13 all over again. I saw talk that these storms could move at 50 mph or more! 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 9, 2015 Report Share Posted November 9, 2015 @ Geos That would be an epic redux just a few days away from exactly (2) yrs. - crazy! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 9, 2015 Report Share Posted November 9, 2015 On the cold side, first blizzard watch of the year! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS208 PM MST MON NOV 9 2015A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING HIGH WINDS AND HAZARDOUS WINTERWEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT STRONGNORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 60 MPH WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION.BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM A BAND OF MODERATESNOW COULD DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTONORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES MAY REMAINWARM ENOUGH FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH TO LIMIT SNOWACCUMULATIONS...AND THE TRACK COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE IMPACTINGSNOW TOTALS. REGARDLESS OF ACCUMULATIONS...CONFIDENCE HASINCREASED THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE A PERIOD OF WHITEOUTCONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE TRI STATEREGION.COZ090>092-KSZ001-002-013-014-027-NEZ079-080-100600-/O.NEW.KGLD.BZ.A.0001.151111T1000Z-151112T0000Z/YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-SHERMAN-THOMAS-WALLACE-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YUMA...WRAY...BURLINGTON...CHEYENNE WELLS...ST. FRANCIS...ATWOOD...GOODLAND...COLBY...SHARON SPRINGS...BENKELMAN...TRENTON208 PM MST MON NOV 9 2015 /308 PM CST MON NOV 9 2015/...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGHWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARDWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGHWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE...HIGHEST AMOUNTSALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO STATE LINE.* TIMING...SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD FROM EASTERN COLORADOAFTER 3 AM MST...INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKAAFTER SUNRISE. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAYMORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS AND FALLING SNOW MAY COMBINE TO PRODUCEBLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO. BE PREPARED FORDANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ROAD CLOSURES...AND POWEROUTAGES.* WINDS...NORTHWEST 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 9, 2015 Report Share Posted November 9, 2015 4km NAM is showing super cell tracks in IL, IA and MO!Starting to think about 11/17/13 all over again. I saw talk that these storms could move at 50 mph or more!Very nice. I believe 'sh!t just got real' as they say. Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 9, 2015 Report Share Posted November 9, 2015 Blizzard watch and winter storm watches just 2 counties west of my location. Let the games begin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 10, 2015 Report Share Posted November 10, 2015 Surprised to see the blizzard and winter storm watches. Didn't know the cold side of this storm had that much potential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 10, 2015 Report Share Posted November 10, 2015 Maybe I have a small chance at seeing some flakes as well. DMX:WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THURSDAY EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS OFF...WITH A SECONDARY BACKDOOR TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW THAT COULD BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHERN IOWA FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME IMPRESSIVE 35-45 KTS OF MIXING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE SHOWERS...SO DESPITE THE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS...THIS EVENT WILL ALSO BEAR WATCHING. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 10, 2015 Report Share Posted November 10, 2015 4km NAM shows it may be cool enough in eastern NE to see some snow as well in the deformation band. O wait... there's more! Check this out Iowa folks! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 10, 2015 Report Share Posted November 10, 2015 Snowfall 2 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted November 10, 2015 Report Share Posted November 10, 2015 That's a weird looking snowfall map with some very patchy characteristics. Seems like the models may be having a tough time with how much dynamic cooling will occur. This may end up being one of those wait and see until the actual storm is happening. Someone will get under some heavy bands of snow though. Pin pointing those down ahead of time is nearly impossible. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 10, 2015 Report Share Posted November 10, 2015 That would actually give me some snow! Nice! 4k NAM has some nasty storms circulated within the low that explode over Eastern Neb/Western Iowa. Worried about getting dry slotted, it's always tricky, but it looks like the low could legitimately cross directly over top of OMA/LNK, leaving us desolated with precipitation totals. Still got time, and love the NAM. Btw, did anyone see the 18z GFS brought back the monster for next week? it's a warm system, but hey, as long as it's a system at this point, something to watch! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 10, 2015 Report Share Posted November 10, 2015 That's a weird looking snowfall map with some very patchy characteristics. Seems like the models may be having a tough time with how much dynamic cooling will occur. This may end up being one of those wait and see until the actual storm is happening. Someone will get under some heavy bands of snow though. Pin pointing those down ahead of time is nearly impossible. I think the patchiness can be attributed to marginal temperatures and timing (day vs. night snowfall). Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 10, 2015 Report Share Posted November 10, 2015 I am tentatively planning on chasing Wednesday. I've never really chased a cold core/mini sup setup much less chased in November before. It's going to be tricky with the rapid storm motions, but I'm pretty optimistic on seeing something pretty strong in southern Iowa before it blows past me! Maybe I'll see a tornado and snow on the same day! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 10, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2015 00z GFS dumps some heavy snows in the Arrowhead of MN and some lighter snows in the Northwoods of Wisco. A friend of mine is heading up to Minocqua, WI to go Muskey fishing Wed-Sun. He's prob going to see snow flakes fly while he's up there. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015111000/gfs_asnow_ncus_18.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 10, 2015 Report Share Posted November 10, 2015 GFS with winds 60-65mph just above the surface on Thursday morning across northern IL. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 10, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2015 GFS with winds 60-65mph just above the surface on Thursday morning across northern IL. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2015/11/10/00/GFS_3_2015111000_F60_WSPD_925_MB.pngI think we will see some Wind Advisories hoisted... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 10, 2015 Report Share Posted November 10, 2015 I think we will see some Wind Advisories hoisted... High wind warnings probably. If anyone wants to know 1 knot is 1.15 mph. NAM has winds 80mph at 850mb over the lake! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 10, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2015 High wind warnings probably. If anyone wants to know 1 knot is 1.15 mph. NAM has winds 80mph at 850mb over the lake! http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2015/11/10/00/NAM_221_2015111000_F51_WSPD_850_MB.png Edmund Fitzerald Part 2??? Practically coming 40 years later to the date. This storm is only about 2 or so mb weaker than that storm and pressure is nearly the same also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 10, 2015 Report Share Posted November 10, 2015 Wouldn't want to be on a ship out in open waters during this storm! Meanwhile before it gets here, snows will be pounding away at the front range and high plains. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 10, 2015 Report Share Posted November 10, 2015 Edmund Fitzerald Part 2??? Practically coming 40 years later to the date. This storm is only about 2 or so mb weaker than that storm and pressure is nearly the same also. Yeah, ridiculous that they don't have a Storm Watch posted, only a Gale Watch. Huh?? Wouldn't want to be on a ship out in open waters during this storm! Meanwhile before it gets here, snows will be pounding away at the front range and high plains. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015111000/namconus_asnow_ncus_19.png They prolly wont be. Ships tend to take cover more these days since the Fitz tragedy. When I lived in Traverse City, there was a strong NOV storm and a ship pulled into East Bay and dropped anchor for a few days to let the storm blow over. Was quite a sight since you normally see only smaller pleasure craft out there. Can't remember the exact November, but between '92 and '96 somewhere in there.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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