Don’t look at what it was originally projecting for January and December during the preceding months. There are non-ENSO reasons to expect an intraseasonal cycle of -PNA from late Jan to mid-Feb, so I wouldn’t doubt that pattern progression, but I think in this case what you’re seeing is the default to the canonical ENSO pattern in the model that probably won’t happen from a low frequency standpoint. These seasonal models usually struggle to project seasonal scale signals in the pattern when the ENSO/LF is poorly integrated (and this year is a perfect example of that). So don’t be surprised if find mid-Feb that long advertised niña-like pattern breaks down once again.

Why do I have a sneaking suspicion that you had to tell your wife and daughter through a manic grin that “ a work thing came up”, and pulled over on the shoulder of I-90 and hunched over your phone, snickering and giggling. Your daughter is scared but your wife looked back at her and said “Jim is one of Daddy’s coworkers and is always in over his head and always needs help getting back to reality.” You look over at your loving wife, knowing that you’ve probably managed to keep the forum from her, snicker again and blurt out a “got’em”. You turn off the emergency blinkers and pull your German auto back onto the freeway humming the Mr Heatmiser song to yourself.

Feb 1 - March 15 is the new PNW winter it seems like. The pattern of the last few weeks is basically just the new climo for Dec/Jan. November, Part 2 and November, Part 3.

It’s been…not fun. Winter break was wet mild sadness.

Snow has really picked up the last 30 min or so.