Money Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 Yeah, was it that far North before? No, it wasn't. This was 12z at HR 168: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF/2015121912/USA_PRMSL_msl_168.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 lol @ gfs, I'll have whatever it's smoking.You smoking anything good lately?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 This was 12z at HR 168: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF/2015121912/USA_PRMSL_msl_168.gif Pretty weak sauce. This run is much stronger and thus a different look. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 00z Euro says..."here blizzard, blizzard, blizzard".... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 Congrats central NE to the northern fringes of the sub forum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 Look at all the warming trying to poke up into the arctic near Greenland as we close out the month of December...same goes for Alaska...trough begins to deepen south of the Aleutians Day 9 as the Pacific re-arranges. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 Congrats central NE to the northern fringes of the sub forum.still a long time to worry about every model run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 PNA might help us out. Still no signs of long term AO NAO help Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 Lock it in! 00z Euro says..."here blizzard, blizzard, blizzard".... Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 12z GFS...looking like the 00z Euro just not as amped up... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 Gfs with a significant change from last night. Looks much more in line with euro. Looks like another rain maker for eastern Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 Im confused. GFS looks to have a Xmas eve storm now and then something for the 26th. What's all going on here? That model is a mess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 And then GFS is showing the big storm for the 28th-29th way south and east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 12z GEFS firing up an impressive NW NAMER ridge as we open up January...looks like Mother Nature wants to play ball finally and start fresh out of the gates in 2016. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 12z ggem http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015122012/gem_asnow_us_40.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 gosaints is in a good spot for this... ukie at hr 144 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 12z Euro pressing a strong HP along the Canadian border... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 12z Euro looks disorganized as the model mayhem continues... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 All systems go for a hardcore weather change after the 1st of the year. Plenty of time to change but when all teleconnections flip so dramatically at once, you have a pretty good idea what's coming down the road. Hoping the southern storm train doesn't magically shut down once we flip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 What do the euro snowfall maps look like for 12z? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 What do the euro snowfall maps look like for 12z?W NE/W KS/CO get hit...not a good hit for your region... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 Thanks Tom. Will keep tracking this week. I'm sure much change is still ahead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 12z GEFS firing up an impressive NW NAMER ridge as we open up January...looks like Mother Nature wants to play ball finally and start fresh out of the gates in 2016. I noticed that on the 0z run last night. Ridge wants to build over the "top". It comes close at 180 hours. East based Greenland block high starting around the 29th. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 GEFS temperatures anomaly outlooks. Can see a downwards trend clearly. Note the evacuation of the really cold pool in central Russia/Siberia to the east. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 I found the point at which the stratospheric vortex starts to weaken at it's core.Next weekend the circular shape start to elongate and stretch out. and then two distinct lobes are seen. Above this the vortex is a bit more circular, but will inevitably split from bottom to top. Lowest level of the stratosphere the vortex is split at day 10. and a level above that is split at day 10.70 hPa isn't quite split at this stage. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 Really hope January gets us to at least seasonable averages. Snow looks like a figment of the imagination for the foreseeable future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 Really hope January gets us to at least seasonable averages. Snow looks like a figment of the imagination for the foreseeable future.not likely at this point, especially the further east you go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 Have watched Jim flowers Facebook video. He says models are really struggling with the storm in the pacific and will for days until closer to the coast so he is not believing anything yet Also nws Hastings is fearful of a potential ice storm this weekend. I would sure wait on that but here is what they say. This is a low-confidence forecast regarding any timing...placement...and precipitation type over the weekend. I hope for more consistency and agreement in future numerical forecasts...but again...the potential for a long-lived elevated warm layer is kind of troubling for freezing rain potential. Keep up on future forecasts as things evolve. If the trough slows down as trends indicate...weatherwise...this may be another interesting Holiday weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 Wow the 18z GFS is nuts. Shows 1-2 feet of snow in Oklahoma and south central Missouri. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 Meanwhile, the 18z GFS drops two feet of snow in central OK up to SW MO for the after Christmas storm. I wonder what else we'll see on the models during the coming week... Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 GFS seems fairly consistent with the last 2 runs with the 2 systems later this week. The one for 28th-29th is all over the place yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 That is some intense wrap around snow on that run. Some thunder snow would definitely be in the cards if that panned out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naddan85 Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 http://i.imgur.com/PEchNXk.png I'm going to have to plan ahead for next Monday according to OAX. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 That is some intense wrap around snow on that run. Some thunder snow would definitely be in the cards if that panned out. I love me some thunder snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 20, 2015 Report Share Posted December 20, 2015 Wow the 18z GFS is nuts. Shows 1-2 feet of snow in Oklahoma and south central Missouri.Some reason the 18z always does crazy stuff like that. Beautiful run though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 Wow the 18z GFS is nuts. Shows 1-2 feet of snow in Oklahoma and south central Missouri. Meanwhile, the 18z GFS drops two feet of snow in central OK up to SW MO for the after Christmas storm. I wonder what else we'll see on the models during the coming week... Of course we have any number of options on the table at this range, but its intersting to note that the original BSR correlation placement would indeed indicate a further SE solution than what has been typical this early winter. The rule isn't perfect, but that track which the Euro has also flashed may be as viable as any. Key is the placement of the HP coming in from Canada imho. If you look closely, you will see the lower 48 super-imposed over the Berring Sea and the placement correlates with central TN apps runner 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 It obviously won't pan out that way but fun to look at. Expecting a cold rain and nothing more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 Gfs at 177 hours. Models change by the run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 Map at 201 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 Just like I expected. Zilch and raging thunderstorms with the freezing line in the north woods. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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