ENSO Discussion

[Front Ranger]

The REALLY good stuff is always about a decade down the road with Phil.

 

You're catching on. 

[Jesse]

You're catching on. 

 

Been pointing that out for years. Closing in on ten, ironically.

[Front Ranger]

Been pointing that out for years. Closing in on ten, ironically.

 

I meant more in the broader sense of catching on to Phil.

[Jesse]

I meant more in the broader sense of catching on to Phil.

 

You're a little late to the party. I take the good and the bad, but I have never refrained from calling him out. There is a reason I have been physically threatened by him/accused of harboring mental disorders several times over the years

[Phil]

The REALLY good stuff is always about a decade down the road with Phil.

Spinning false narratives and flamboyant hyperbole must be a great way to let off steam, eh?

 

When on Earth have I ever forecasted an AMO reversal before the 2020s?

[Phil]

[Jesse]

Lol, false hyperbole is a great way to let off steam, eh?

 

When on Earth have I ever forecasted an AMO reversal before the 2020s?

Seems like early 2020s have been your go to for a while now. But since they are now getting uncomfortably close late 2020s makes more sense.

[Front Ranger]

You're a little late to the party. I take the good and the bad, but I have never refrained from calling him out. There is a reason I have been physically threatened by him/accused of harboring mental disorders several times over the years

 

 

Yet you've still fallen for his hype from time to time. Even recently.

[Phil]

Been pointing that out for years. Closing in on ten, ironically.

You know what, go f**k yourself man. You know very well this is a false narrative, and you’re spinning in anyway because you’re pissed about your winter weather. Talk about pathetic.

 

You were mocking my long range multi-year La Niña forecast just 6 months ago, when it looked like another Niño was coming on, now you’re silent. I’m very happy with my climate forecast, and I’m very happy with my current ENSO forecast for the next 3+ years.

[Jesse]

 

Yet you've still fallen for his hype from time to time. Even recently.

Recognizing that he has done well the last several months and showing interest in a favorable forecast in light of that is a lot different than “falling for hype.”

 

It’s not like I went out and bought a snowblower.

[Phil]

Translated:

 

My January forecast is going down in flames, so I need to make Phil look bad to distract from it.

 

I know Phil is a better forecaster than me, and most of his long range/climate forecasts are at least half-decent, but maybe if I can bring him down with me, I can level the playing field.

[Phil]

Okay, this post went too far, and I apologize to Jesse for it, however I think I have a very logical reason to be upset over getting piled on for nothing. I can’t think of any climate/related busts I’ve had since the 2015/16 Niño ended up being modestly stronger than I thought (I was predicting moderate).

 

Other than that, what have I busted on since?

 

You know what, go f**k yourself man. You know very well this is a false narrative, and you’re spinning in anyway because you’re pissed about your winter weather. Talk about pathetic.

 

You were mocking my long range multi-year La Niña forecast just 6 months ago, when it looked like another Niño was coming on, now you’re silent. I’m very happy with my climate forecast, and I’m very happy with my current ENSO forecast for the next 3+ years.

[Phil]

You know, I think I’m realizing that this isn’t really the best forum for long range/climate predictions, anyway, and nor should it be. It’s a forum for weather enthusiasts, not scholars, and the nuances/difficulties in long range forecasting just aren’t understood by everyone, so perceived mistakes and/or imperfections get jumped on when they probably shouldn’t be.

 

But, hey, keep spinning false narratives and launching aimless attacks if it makes you feel better.

[weatherfan2012]

You know, I think I’m realizing that this isn’t really the best forum for long range/climate predictions, anyway, and nor should it be. It’s a forum for weather enthusiasts, not scholars, and the nuances/difficulties in long range forecasting just aren’t understood by everyone, so perceived mistakes and/or imperfections get jumped on when they probably shouldn’t be.

But, hey, keep spinning false narratives and launching aimless attacks if it makes you feel better.

I think you bring great things on this forum personally

[Jesse]

Translated:

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Translated:

 

 

Nah, it's pretty simple. You get carried away with hype, and you get more confident than LR forecasting warrants. That's all.

 

I've been doing LR forecasts on here longer than you, I don't measure myself against the newbie. 

[Phil]

Nah, it's pretty simple. You get carried away with hype, and you get more confident than LR forecasting warrants. That's all.

 

I've been doing LR forecasts on here longer than you, I don't measure myself against the newbie.

Lol. If you say so.

[Bryant]

This Niña keeps getting colder, all the while things are heating up in this thread!

[Jesse]

You know, I think I’m realizing that this isn’t really the best forum for long range/climate predictions, anyway, and nor should it be. It’s a forum for weather enthusiasts, not scholars, and the nuances/difficulties in long range forecasting just aren’t understood by everyone, so perceived mistakes and/or imperfections get jumped on when they probably shouldn’t be.

 

But, hey, keep spinning false narratives and launching aimless attacks if it makes you feel better.

I accept your apology. I think some of my criticisms are fair, though. I’m don’t think you are a terrible forecaster by any means but I do think that sometimes you let pizzaz get the best of you.

[Phil]

I accept your apology. I think some of my criticisms are fair, though. I’m don’t think you are a terrible forecaster by any means but I do think that sometimes you let pizzaz get the best of you.

I think that’s fair criticism. I was more upset by the claim that I’m flip flopping and pushing stuff back (if anything I think I’m too stubborn..who knows). I also think Flatiron was clearly trying to deflect some negative attention onto me there, and I wasn’t sure if you were picking up on that or not.

[snow_wizard]

This Niña keeps getting colder, all the while things are heating up in this thread!

 

This Nina might set us up for a really cold year this year.  We are due for some payback for the torch of 2014 - 2016.  I hope we see a nice global temperature drop.

[wx_statman]

2013 was his first drop dead date.

 

He's killed other dates since? Someone should do something. 

[Phil]

He's killed other dates since? Someone should do something.

[snow_wizard]

Nino 3.4 spiked down to almost -2 before a bit of recovery.  What has been an impressive trade wind burst is about to go nuclear. This thing is going nuts now. 

[Phil]

Nino 3.4 spiked down to almost -2 before a bit of recovery. What has been an impressive trade wind burst is about to nuclear. This thing is going nuts now.

Not sure I’d word it that strongly.

 

There’s also a downwelling OKW trying to turn things the other way, while the trade burst/MJO is fighting it. My guess is that it ends up being a stalemate and that we follow a more climatological ENSO progression thereafter, but that’s just a guess.

[Phil]

Nah, it's pretty simple. You get carried away with hype, and you get more confident than LR forecasting warrants. That's all.

 

I've been doing LR forecasts on here longer than you, I don't measure myself against the newbie.

Considering an east-coaster had to educate you on the PNA tonight, I think you’ve fallen in the ranks.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/pna.shtml

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Drama!!!!!

[Geos]

Got a huge spike back up right now.

 

[TT-SEA]

Got a huge spike back up right now.

 

 

 

Yeah... the entire Nino region has warmed up significantly over the last week:

 

 

 

The water of our coast is quite warm again as well...

 

[Deweydog]

Hope springs eternal!

[TT-SEA]

With low solar... if we head towards neutral now and stay there then I would be a little more optimistic about spring and early summer.   

[Guest happ]

With low solar... if we head towards neutral now and stay there then I would be a little more optimistic about spring and early summer.   

 

Wish I could share your optimism 

[Phil]

I love how every meaningless inteaseasonal slosh in the Pacific waters is hyper-analyzed in the context of ENSO implications.

[TT-SEA]

I love how every meaningless inteaseasonal slosh in the Pacific waters is hyper-analyzed in the context of ENSO implications.

 

I spoke hypothetically.   

 

It is a pretty big jump... and the official ENSO forecast does show neutral by spring.   

 

But I will believe you over any other guidance... that is a fact.   

[Phil]

Big trade burst moving slowly eastward with the MJO wave over the upcoming week, where it will become less spatially out-of-phase with the OKW, hence will be able to “fight” it more efficiently. So we should see cooling resume.

 

[TT-SEA]

Phil... do you think we head towards neutral this spring as the CPC is predicting?

[Phil]

Phil... do you think we head towards neutral this spring as the CPC is predicting?

Yeah, my preliminary thoughts are that we move into an ENSO-neutral regime this summer/fall, which continues into next winter.

 

That being said, I want to observe the evolution of the stratosphere (PV/QBO) over the remainder of boreal winter before making any definitive calls, since a major SSW and subsequent MJO response could kick the pendulum into motion again.

[Jesse]

Yeah, my preliminary thoughts are that we move into an ENSO-neutral regime this summer/fall, which continues into next winter.

 

That being said, I want to observe the evolution of the stratosphere (PV/QBO) over the remainder of boreal winter before making any definitive calls, since a major SSW and subsequent MJO response could kick the pendulum into motion again.

By kick the pendulum into motion do you mean move us toward an El Niño?

 

Most of your posts could really be a lot less cryptic with a just a few words added.

[Phil]

By kick the pendulum into motion do you mean move us toward an El Niño?

 

Most of your posts could really be a lot less cryptic with a just a few words added.

Like, getting the bathtub waters sloshing again, in either direction (since that’s basically what ENSO is). Once those waters start sloshing around, it can be like a perpetual motion machine..it tends to keep going for awhile.

[Phil]

Not just in sense of ENSO, as we know it. Even coupled extratropical resonances/instabilities, which can relate to and/or arise from red noise/MJO forcing, can become self-reinforcing and affect the tendencies of ENSO/etc over the longer term.

 

The swing to +PDO/+PNA dominance following the great SSW/MJO wave of January 2013 is an example of this.