October 2016 Observations & Discussion

[Niko]

Last year's pattern of being warmer area lives on..SE MI has actually been colder than SW MI.

[Niko]

Active GFS. If these systems were during winter there would be some long nights of storm tracking!

That is so much fun, knowing that you are about to get buried from feet of snow and watching it get closer and closer to your location. It is definitely worth it being g up all night, as long as you don't have to get up early the next day for work. I have done it once where I was tracking a blizzard and had to wake up at 6:ooam the next morning. It was tough concentrating at work that day, but it was worth the time. Never done it again.

[jaster220]

Look at that powerhouse crashing into the NW.

That's actually remnants of the Typhoon that re-curved in the W PAC.  Interesting system for those in the NW PAC..I'm sure Geo's is tracking this one!

 

No doubt pumped about it! Seems like a while since we've seen that over there. Supposed to merge with a southern stream low and become next week's action? Is that correct? Man, this is getting interesting quickly. Met Dude in his vid I posted yesterday thought cold may hit sooner, like early Nov, not 3rd week. Ofc, the ghost of autumn '89 could be awakening. Speaking of early winter hits in MI. I didn't realize (since Marshall was on the fringe of snow, only a few tenths for mby) that some places in SW MI got 6-8" totals.   Wasn't able to follow so closely back then tbh. 

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

Anyone notice that TWC plays a huge amount of commercials constantly. Its so ridiculous. Everytime I turn on my T.V to watch them, a commercial is on.

[OKwx2k4]

SOI now -13 against an overwhelmingly positive base state. Regardless of modeling at this time, expecting a pretty potent central CONUS trough in the coming 10-14 days. Global Oscillations and modeling should start reflecting this in the next 5 days. Until then, modeling is a bit of a wash.

[james1976]

That's actually remnants of the Typhoon that re-curved in the W PAC. Interesting system for those in the NW PAC..I'm sure Geo's is tracking this one!

Where is Geo's?? Havent seen him post in a long time.

[Tom]

Brrrrrr...Wed am low temps for parts of MT/ID this morning...pretty potent cold front even for this part of the lower 48...

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Very nice Tom.

 

@James, Geos moved to the Pacific Northwest area.

[james1976]

28° this morning. Frost everywhere.

[james1976]

Haha gotta love fantasy land GFS.

[Tom]

28° this morning. Frost everywhere.

Not as cold over here, but it's a bit nippy at 38F.  Had to turn on the furnace this morning as I'm sure many in the region prob did for the first time.

 

Sunrises are now after 7:00 am!  Waking up around 6:30 its pretty dark outside.  I love this time of year.  Indian Summer weather is going to prevail later this weekend into the early part of next week.  Mid/upper 70's are going to feel so warm after our chilly start to the morning today.

[james1976]

[gabel23]

28° this morning. Frost everywhere.

Not quiet sure how cold it was this morning but I"m guessing it was somewhere around that here. There was frost all over my grass.......I'm hoping my tomato plants survived. I went out and checked this morning and they seemed fine so hopefully I can keep them around for another picking!! I put blankets over all of them last night. 

[jaster220]

Haha gotta love fantasy land GFS.

 

Very believable if that was mid-December, but pre-Halloween?? Who knows though, Tom's WGN graphic illustrates that even though we've been basking in above normal for a long time, the cold seems to have some real legs where it's been hitting early. As said, Halloween of '89 was bitter cold!

[jaster220]

Very nice Tom.

 

@James, Geos moved to the Pacific Northwest area.

 

Hopefully, he can get up into the mountains to get his "snow fix" over the winter. Looks like the Cascades are kicking off winter in classic style - they could "bust" and still get 5 feet! 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Haha gotta love fantasy land GFS.

Looks very similar to the storm system and trough that blew through last week right?

[OKwx2k4]

Hopefully, he can get up into the mountains to get his "snow fix" over the winter. Looks like the Cascades are kicking off winter in classic style - they could "bust" and still get 5 feet!

 

20161013 NWS Cascade Mnts Snowcast.PNG

That must be just horrible. Hahaha!

[OKwx2k4]

Here it comes. Huge NAO crash now showing up. AO should be showing up in the next day or 2. Big blocking event upcoming coinciding with SOI crash I was talking about.

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

I wish this could happen. It may. Who knows...

 

[james1976]

Looks very similar to the storm system and trough that blew through last week right?

This was showing a snow system for me. Thats what i was referring to. Never know.....could happen. Especially if a healthy trough is in place.

[OKwx2k4]

This was showing a snow system for me. Thats what i was referring to. Never know.....could happen. Especially if a healthy trough is in place.

Gotcha. I'm getting a pretty good feeling that the 20th-31st is going to get pretty eventful after seeing some recent developments.

[OKwx2k4]

Not going to lie, I'm going to be pretty intrigued with the Pacific Northwest over the next few days also. Major windstorm is pretty interesting.

[james1976]

Yeah its getting stormy out in the NW

[james1976]

GFS has next week system further north now.

[Tom]

GFS has next week system further north now.

GEFS also have shifted north towards N MN...EPS also agreeing with a northerly track.  Climo speaking, it makes sense.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016101312/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_21.png

[Niko]

This was showing a snow system for me. Thats what i was referring to. Never know.....could happen. Especially if a healthy trough is in place.

I agree...neva say neva!

[Niko]

Under a Frost Advisory once again for tonight with lows getting down into the low 30s.

[Tom]

First official Frost Advisory for N IL..however, for my area and locations in the urban regions won't get down low enough.

 

 

 

Frost AdvisoryURGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
234 PM CDT THU OCT 13 2016

ILZ014-140400-
/O.NEW.KLOT.FR.Y.0005.161014T0700Z-161014T1400Z/
COOK-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHICAGO
234 PM CDT THU OCT 13 2016

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY.

* TEMPERATURE...32 TO 36 IN NORTHWEST COOK COUNTY. 37 TO 46 FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTY WHERE FROST IS NOT EXPECTED OR WILL
BE LIMITED.

* IMPACTS...OUTSIDE OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR OF COOK COUNTY...SENSITIVE
OUTDOOR PLANTS AND VEGETATION MAY BE KILLED IN THESE CONDITIONS
IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

[NEJeremy]

Had a low of 30 last night and everything was covered in frost this morning. Brief shot as we'll be well back in the 70s by this weekend and early next week.

[Hawkeye]

We hit about 32 this morning and got a solid frost, the first of the season.  It's so much work covering and uncovering the garden.  Thankfully, we are only expected to drop to 36 tonight with a bit of patch frost.  I didn't bother covering anything again.

[CentralNebWeather]

Have now had at least 2 mornings this year right around 30 for a low. Lots of frost here in central Nebraska. Indian summer through Monday. Trees really changing and leaves falling on many yards. Great time of year.

[jaster220]

I agree...neva say neva!

 

Yeah, look at Nov 21st last year @ mby. Over a foot of snow in an otherwise toasty autumn!   Strange wx things can and do happen. 

[james1976]

Yup.....talkin low 80s now for Monday

[westMJim]

It's a clear and frosty 33° here at my house. it looks like the official low will be 37° at the airport. This is the second frost this month here at my house. On a side note it has not been at or below freezing since April 13th and the last hard freeze (28° of colder)  was way back on April  5th.  The mean date for the first 32° here in Grand Rapids is October 13th the latest was November 14, 1919.  And the mean date  for the first hard freeze (28 or colder) is October 28th the earliest hard freeze here in GRR was September 23, 1974 and the latest was November 29, 1948. 

[Tom]

Some frost here last night but it mainly was on the roofs and cars.  I woke up after 8:00am today so I think if there was any frost on the grass, it melted because there was heavy dew on it this morning.

 

Forecast is going for low 80's on Monday also...back to reality later in the week...

 

 

 

 

Very strange to see the SOI crash down to -25.79!  I think the model behavior is going to be a bit off in the near term.

 

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values SOI values for 14 Oct 2016

Average for last 30 days 7.73

Average for last 90 days 7.74

Daily contribution to SOI calculation -25.79
 

[Hawkeye]

We only bottomed out in the upper 30s this morning, but the frost was just as thick as yesterday morning when we bottomed out around 32.

[Tom]

This massive PAC storm system that is targeting the PAC NW is going to be an interesting feature to the LRC this year.  It's going to send the first wave into southern Canada over the weekend pumping a big time ridge out ahead of it so we can enjoy Indian Summer weather.  However, with seasonal differences in the jet stream down the road, you can expect shifts in the overall storm track.  Should be interesting to track this towards the very last days of November (I think) or opening of December.

 

 

 

.

[Tom]

Some big differences already showing up on the GFS in the medium range for mid next week.  It's showing a nice pattern with a trough digging into the south/central Rockies and ejecting out into the Plains.  This has been showing up constantly on the CFS and I hope this will indeed be a trend going forward.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016101412/gfs_z500_vort_us_25.png'

[Jaycee]

Oh baby that image is glorious. Nice bowling ball type Colorado Low. I hope that trend stays, that'd be an awesome system to have any time of the year.

 

Speaking of which, which do you guys prefer? Colorado Lows, or Panhandle Hook Systems?

[Tom]

Oh baby that image is glorious. Nice bowling ball type Colorado Low. I hope that trend stays, that'd be an awesome system to have any time of the year.

 

Speaking of which, which do you guys prefer? Colorado Lows, or Panhandle Hook Systems?

I'm a guy that roots for the entire "team" to win, so I'd say CO Low's are pretty awesome systems to track bc most of the time it ends up being a "share the wealth" type of system.  Panhandle Hooks are also fun storms but they tend to miss the central Plains and target the southern Plains/Midwest/Lakes and more often than not, these systems are bigger/stronger storms due to a stronger interaction with the GOM.