May 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

Oh, and I listed plenty of years. For *low frequency* analog guidance (smoothing of internal differences), you could theoretically aggregate 1951, 1952, 1954, 1977, 1980, 1983, 1991, 1993, and 1995.

 

That's more than a large enough sample size. All weak ENSO summers, all with adequate tropical similarities and roughly homogenous QBOs.

[BLI snowman]

I was going to post how strong +ENSO often plays a role in years like these, but it looks like Phil beat me to it.

 

Also, even if this May ends up warm overall, it was not a wall to wall torch like some of those. Lots of ups and downs. But a generally warm last two weeks will likely clench it as an above average month.

It's looking similar to how Mays 1995 and 2009 played out. One had a mighty hot July and the other a mighty hot September!

[Jesse]

It's looking similar to how Mays 1995 and 2009 played out. One had a mighty hot July and the other a mighty hot September!

Troll-casts are funner than forecasts anyway.

[Front Ranger]

Oh, and I listed plenty of years. For *low frequency* analog guidance (smoothing of internal differences), you could theoretically aggregate 1951, 1952, 1954, 1977, 1980, 1983, 1991, 1993, and 1995.

 

That's more than a large enough sample size. All weak ENSO summers, all with adequate tropical similarities and roughly homogenous QBOs.

 

1954 had some pretty major ENSO differences to this year.

 

Here are summers preceded by warm Mays and with ENSO in the 0 to +1 range for late spring.

 

[Phil]

1954 had some pretty major ENSO differences to this year.

 

Here are summers preceded by warm Mays and with ENSO in the 0 to +1 range for late spring.

 

cd67.6.172.175.136.20.26.22.prcp.png

This is completely useless. Once again, your analogs are all over the place because you've got wildly different ENSO/tropical forcing states represented, some which evolve into super niños, some which regress into la niñas, all sorts of variances in the strength of the Asian summer monsoons under wild variances in QBO/NAM, etc.

[Deweydog]

Where did this May rank all time for warmth in the PNW?

[Phil]

Goodness gracious dude, you have five super-niño summers listed in there (1957, 1972, 1982, 1997, 2015). This summer will not present any ENSO forcing whatsoever, and May actually present as a west-based La Niña until August.

 

Edit: Not to mention the +ENSO behemoths of 1958, 1987, and 1992. All of these are spatial anti-logs to 2017.

[wx_statman]

The 2nd place May temp of 99 on 5/29/1887 was also the hottest of that year by a decent margin.

 

Another oddball was 1957. Hit 87 in April, and didn't exceed that number until September.

[Front Ranger]

This is completely useless. Once again, your analogs are all over the place because you've got wildly different ENSO/tropical forcing states represented, some which evolve into super niños, some which regress into la niñas, all sorts of variances in the strength of the Asian summer monsoons under wild variances in QBO/NAM, etc.

 

 

Hey, the small list of analogs you presented earlier had wildly different ENSO contexts as well. 1954 was already a Nina by this point, 1983 was coming off a super Nino, 1991 was heading towards a major Nino, and 1995 was dropping off towards a Nina.

[Phil]

1954 had some pretty major ENSO differences to this year.

 

Here are summers preceded by warm Mays and with ENSO in the 0 to +1 range for late spring.

 

cd67.6.172.175.136.20.26.22.prcp.png

Let's hindcast these analogs. How do they perform when hindcasting for March/April?

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/FD30BB92-75D9-499D-9487-90788FF64F45_zpsb8etcyxb.png

 

Hard to do worse.

[Front Ranger]

Where did this May rank all time for warmth in the PNW?

 

Top 10 looks doable. Especially for SEA.

[Front Ranger]

I will say...1983 did feature a big Denver snowstorm on this date. And we're supposed to get one tomorrow night. 

 

Analog destiny.

[Deweydog]

Top 10 looks doable. Especially for SEA.

It'd be nice if Kevin Martin would chime in with a 14 day forecast.

[Phil]

 

Hey, the small list of analogs you presented earlier had wildly different ENSO contexts as well. 1954 was already a Nina by this point, 1983 was coming off a super Nino, 1991 was heading towards a major Nino, and 1995 was dropping off towards a Nina.

You took that post completely out of context. I made that list to capture the lower frequency, extratropical response to a dampened zonal SST/forcing gradient across the Pacific, independent of the ENSO differences. I am not using 1954 as a summer pattern analog.

[Phil]

First, you should never rely on monthly precipitation at OLM to make a seasonal forecast without accounting for large scale system forcings driving the precipitation anomaly. Any strong +ENSO years will fail to represent the system state this year and should not be used as analogs.

[TT-SEA]

I like what Jared is saying... but have learned not to go against Phil in the big picture.    Even when I dislike what he is saying.  

 

He called the big picture very well last year starting in the early spring onward.   And has been pretty much right so far this year.   

 

I am just hoping that we can get a better result with a 1983/1993 type pattern this summer.   Or maybe end up closer to 1951 or 1995.   

[Jesse]

Top 10 looks doable. Especially for SEA.

 

Getting ahead of yourself. I could still envision a scenario where the last 3-5 days of the month end up cool. We are two weeks out from May 31st.

[Front Ranger]

You took that post completely out of context. I made that list to capture the lower frequency, extratropical response to a dampened zonal SST/forcing gradient across the Pacific, independent of the ENSO differences. I am not using 1954 as a summer pattern analog.

 

On the other hand, the higher zonal frequencies in the extradampened tropic sub-gradients could lead to interplanetary PDO/ITT forcings and variances throughout the spatial cranium.

[TT-SEA]

Getting ahead of yourself. I could still envision a scenario where the last 3-5 days of the month end up cool. We are two weeks out from May 31st.

 

Very possible.    Would probably result from a clipper cutting off into a ULL and parking itself over us.   

[Phil]

On the other hand, the higher zonal frequencies in the extradampened tropic sub-gradients could lead to interplanetary PDO/ITT forcings and variances throughout the spatial cranium.

Your analogs fail to accurately hindcast March/April.

 

See a problem here?

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/6891BB96-F5D0-4295-A45A-3E1FEE5393A8_zpszs8abcxy.png

[wx_statman]

It'd be nice if Kevin Martin would chime in with a 14 day forecast.

I wonder what the UJEAS model is showing for this summer.

[Front Ranger]

Getting ahead of yourself. I could still envision a scenario where the last 3-5 days of the month end up cool. We are two weeks out from May 31st.

 

True. The last 3-5 days of the month will determine if this May ends up merely a bit above normal or well above normal.

 

But we're pretty much guaranteed to be well above normal 8 days from now. As a betting man, I'll take the odds.

[Jesse]

I wonder what the UJEAS model is showing for this summer.

Hopefully a UJEAS trough parked over the west.

[Front Ranger]

Your analogs fail to accurately hindcast March/April.

 

See a problem here?

 

 

Eh, I'm not tied to that list of years. Was just sharing info. And I don't think hindcasting (when you're talking about forecasting) is particularly helpful with analogs years in the spring.

 

Don't forget, you agree with two of my top three analogs. 

[wx_statman]

Hopefully a UJEAS trough parked over the west.

Hah!

[Front Ranger]

Hah!

 

That's a Kevin Martin joke right there.

[Phil]

Eh, I'm not tied to that list of years. Was just sharing info. And I don't think hindcasting (when you're talking about forecasting) is particularly helpful with analogs years in the spring.

 

Don't forget, you agree with two of my top three analogs.

You don't think hindcasting is helpful?

 

Isn't that what analogs are all about? You know, using the past to predict the future?

 

[Phil]

I like what Jared is saying... but have learned not to go against Phil in the big picture. Even when I dislike what he is saying.

 

He called the big picture very well last year starting in the early spring onward. And has been pretty much right so far this year.

 

I am just hoping that we can get a better result with a 1983/1993 type pattern this summer. Or maybe end up closer to 1951 or 1995.

You're gonna jinx me, man.

 

I also don't think the upper level jet will be as strong this year as it was in 1983/1993. Those years were roofed up in that regard.

[wx_statman]

That's a Kevin Martin joke right there.

 

I wonder if he still reads this forum.

[Front Ranger]

You don't think hindcasting is helpful?

 

Isn't that what analogs are all about? You know, using the past to predict the future?

 

 

[Phil]

Don't forget, you agree with two of my top three analogs.

What are your analogs? I'm not using any years with anomalous convection over the dateline/eastern IPWP, which therefore leaves me with 1951, 1952, 1954, 1980, 1981, 1983, 1991, 1993, 1995, 2008, 2011, and 2012. Some of these analogs are more heavily weighted, others are sketchier but still useful.

 

Generally, the 1980s/1990s analogs have been performing the best.

[Deweydog]

I wonder if he still reads this forum.

Internet access in federal prison is heavily restricted.

[Front Ranger]

Internet access in federal prison is heavily restricted.

 

I was thinking the same thing.

[Front Ranger]

What are your analogs? I'm not using any years with anomalous convection over the dateline/eastern IPWP, which therefore leaves me with 1951, 1952, 1954, 1980, 1981, 1983, 1991, 1993, 1995, 2008, 2011, and 2012. Some of these analogs are more heavily weighted, others are sketchier but still useful.

 

Generally, the 1980s/1990s analogs have been performing the best.

 

1982, 1991, and 2014. You mentioned previously you liked 1991 and 2014.

[wx_statman]

Internet access in federal prison is heavily restricted.

 

Did he actually get locked up? I haven't heard anything about him in a couple years.

[Deweydog]

Did he actually get locked up? I haven't heard anything about him in a couple years.

Oh, I don't know. Seems plausible though.

[Phil]

1982, 1991, and 2014. You mentioned previously you liked 1991 and 2014.

I never said I liked 2014. I don't see anything remotely similar between 2014 and 2017.

 

My recommendation is to avoid developing strong/super niños at all costs, and to instead look at cold-WPAC/warm-EPAC years without a significant ENSO signal.

[wx_statman]

Oh, I don't know. Seems plausible though.

 

Yeah, I watched a couple of his videos from a few years ago.

[Front Ranger]

I never said I liked 2014. I don't see anything remotely similar between 2014 and 2017.

 

My recommendation is to avoid developing strong/super niños at all costs, and to instead look at cold-WPAC/warm-EPAC years without a significant ENSO signal.

 

I swear you said you liked 2014 a few days ago, and then I pointed out that it and 1991 were in my top 3 analogs.

 

You go through analogs like Dewey went through girls in college. Revolving door.

[Deweydog]

I swear you said you liked 2014 a few days ago, and then I pointed out that it and 1991 were in my top 3 analogs.

 

You go through analogs like Dewey went through girls in college. Revolving door.

WTF? I was a one-trick pony.