November 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

THE ASTROS WIN!!!

Congrats!  Houston wanted it more than the Dodgers.  I'm glad that city can celebrate their first championship in team history.   That team is going to be great for a long time...just like the Cub's.  

[Tom]

00z Euro is showing a more organized and colder system for next week laying down some appreciable November snows across the OMA dome!  Classic I-80 snowstorm in the works??  This thing has potential.

 

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017110200/mw/ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_180.png

[Tom]

Woah, to say the models are having a difficult time predicting the pattern Week 2 and beyond is an under statement.  Remember how cold the JMA weeklies were for a couple weeks in a row for this month?  Last nights run is bringing in a second half Nov torch!  That's just proof that nothing can be trusted in the Week 2+ range until we know the LRC is set up.  I will, however, argue that a SER signal does develop in the Week 2 range due to the blossoming Bearing Sea Ridge Day 7+....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here is the 500mb maps for the next 4 weeks off the JMA...

 

 

 

 

850's....

 

 

[Tom]

There are several factors that may counter, or rather, suppress the SER in the longer range.  I saw this happen before in '13/'14 when the driving factors in the PAC countered any other warm signals.  To say there will be a nasty temp gradient in the coming weeks is an understatement.  We have modeling support that the EPO/WPO stay for the most part negative this month and I'm seeing both GEFS/EPS showing a near neutral AO/NAO in the longer range.  I will put more support on the idea that the EPO/WPO provide enough staying power and allow the cold building up in Canada to try and "push" or "fight" the ridge.  This is part of the reason why I knew this month would be an exciting period trying to figure out how this pattern actually evolves and where the atmospheric fireworks line up.

 

Needless to say, it will be an interesting number of days to see what the models show once we get into the following week.  The long range tools that have been doing a great job for me in East Asia do support somewhat of a re-alignment of the trough/ridge pattern across N.A. Week 2+.  I still need a few more days to see what happens before putting a finger on it.

[james1976]

6z GFS weaker and south with the system next week.

[Niko]

Dismal and rainy out there, but, milder temps. Holding @ 48F.

[Tom]

00z Euro control very similar to the Euro Op for the potential snow system across the central Plains/Midwest mid next week...

 

Shades of Nov '13 in the NE PAC...hard not to discount the driving factor of the warm blob...

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTMonInd1.gif

 

 

 

Nov 28th, 2013...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.11.28.2013.gif

[james1976]

Looks like a west-east type system if it transpires.

[Tom]

Looks like a west-east type system if it transpires.

Indeed, the "Dakotas Block" (which I decided to nick name), might in fact be a common theme this cold season as I've seen it show up several times already back in October.  We haven't seen this type of pattern for a few years.  

[Minny_Weather]

I'll believe anything I see regarding the storm system next week once I see more runs. It looks intriguing, but we all know how models love to be screwy. The pattern for this LRC so far is models underperform and nature overperforms, but I obviously need to see more of a trend first.

 

Amounts for my balcony: 2" (GFS)-7" (Euro).

[Tom]

I'll believe anything I see regarding the storm system next week once I see more runs. It looks intriguing, but we all know how models love to be screwy. The pattern for this LRC so far is models underperform and nature overperforms, but I obviously need to see more of a trend first.

 

Amounts for my balcony: 2" (GFS)-7" (Euro).

Once we are close to about 5 days, the Euro does a pretty darn good job.  I think the GFS is shearing out this energy to much while both the Euro Op/Control and even the GGEM have a better organized system.  Nonetheless, I like the overall trends of late and it would fit the developing LRC pattern across our subforum where storm systems are better organized and tend to intensify once they enter the "slot".

[Niko]

Substantially colder next week w highs at some point not going above 40 or so and lows in the 20s.

[Minny_Weather]

Once we are close to about 5 days, the Euro does a pretty darn good job.  I think the GFS is shearing out this energy to much while both the Euro Op/Control and even the GGEM have a better organized system.  Nonetheless, I like the overall trends of late and it would fit the developing LRC pattern across our subforum where storm systems are better organized and tend to intensify once they enter the "slot".

GEM has been sneakily good this season. RGEM was also the only model to even come close to verifying with the snowfall on Tuesday.

[Tom]

Just saw the Canadian weeklies and they are not buying into a EC ridge during Thanksgiving week.  This model nailed the following week's colder look which the GEFS/EPS were not buying into until recently.  The Canadian usually "sees" the cold better in the Week 2+ range.  What is intriguing down the road, check out the trough placement NW of Hawaii and south of the Aleutians.  If this signature can grow heading into December, it would imply a bigger eastern CONUS trough.

[bud2380]

More snow for areas north of the Twin Cities.  Good start to the year up there.

 

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/mpx/wxstory/Tab2FileL.png

[gabel23]

More snow for areas north of the Twin Cities.  Good start to the year up there.

 

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/mpx/wxstory/Tab2FileL.png

 

Speaking of that, I found this article about the halloween blizzard for that area back in 1991. I remember halloween that year was cancelled for us and it was cold and snowy!! 

[bud2380]

12z GFS showing nothing for the midweek system next week still.  

[Minny_Weather]

12z GFS showing nothing for the midweek system next week still.

It's showing something. It's just way South and warm. We'll see, GFS has been fairly warm biased this whole season. Regarding storm track, well, we'll see.

 

Now, GEM on the other hand..

[Niko]

Rainy and mild currently. Temp @ 50F. Feels balmy out there.

[jaster220]

GEM has been sneakily good this season. RGEM was also the only model to even come close to verifying with the snowfall on Tuesday.

 

 

12z GFS showing nothing for the midweek system next week still.  

 

Tom posted that with the GFS's major bias to be too progressive, it shears the energy out. Until it comes within range where it drops that idea, it can't join the storm party. A bunch of my storms would've been a whiff too per the GFS's bias. Even the gov agencies leaning too much on that model busted, like the CPC for example, as well as my local NWS. They finally ditched the GFS and went with the EC and the GGEM at the last minute. Be wary with the GooFuS!

[jaster220]

Rainy and mild currently. Temp @ 50F. Feels balmy out there.

 

Heck, this morning's 42º (and calm) felt balmy. Car thermo even dropped to 41 for a bit. Great sign that the warm front stayed well south of MI. Had we been in winter, the .52" of rain last night would've most likely been snow. As it was, surface temps were in the 30's during the rainfall on an east wind. Great stuff 

 

Battle Creek's temps were well below normal yesterday. Normal high is about 55F per this NWS graphic. Even the low 50's currently are about normal. This weekend ofc, we'll spike above and risk some severe wx, just like Nov of 2013

 

 

 

 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

The latest GFS and CMC no longer have snow anymore and as Tom would say...the storm and the northern stream don't "marry" each other. Knew last night I shouldn't have gotten so excited so fast after seeing the 0z euro. 

[Niko]

Heck, this morning's 42º (and calm) felt balmy. Car thermo even dropped to 41 for a bit. Great sign that the warm front stayed well south of MI. Had we been in winter, the .52" of rain last night would've most likely been snow. As it was, surface temps were in the 30's during the rainfall on an east wind. Great stuff 

 

Battle Creek's temps were well below normal yesterday. Normal high is about 55F per this NWS graphic. Even the low 50's currently are about normal. This weekend ofc, we'll spike above and risk some severe wx, just like Nov of 2013

 

20171102 KBTL Nov 1st temps.png

 

20171102_CPC_hazards_d3_7.jpg

Indeed, that would have been a 6"+ snowfall for our region.

 

Btw: I remember Nov, 2013 being mild and wet at the beginning of the month and getting sharply colder end of the month into early Dec. Ofc, all hell broke loose after that.

[Minny_Weather]

The latest GFS and CMC no longer have snow anymore and as Tom would say...the storm and the northern stream don't "marry" each other. Knew last night I shouldn't have gotten so excited so fast after seeing the 0z euro. 

Yeah I knew after seeing both GEFS and EPS that we shouldn't get our hopes up.

[Jaycee]

Dang it, why is it dying out now? I’ve been in Canada all week and can’t look for myself.

[Minny_Weather]

Dang it, why is it dying out now? I’ve been in Canada all week and can’t look for myself.

You actually expect Lincoln to get snow? 

 

There is still hope. Last GFS run still has a big system, it's just all rain in KS. If it trends Northward, we will be below freezing.

[james1976]

GFS back with a wound up storm around the 13th. Too far out but maybe the BSR is showing itself.

[Tom]

Over the last 4 runs, GEFS have been trending with a -AO/-NAO tandem around the 11th/12th. Nice to see some blocking possibly coming back into the picture.

[james1976]

Did the Euro lose the mid-next week system as well?

[Tom]

12z Euro lost the storm...GFS FTW???

[Craig-OmahaWX]

12z Euro lost the storm...GFS FTW???

And the extended dry streak continues! Enjoy your bountiful rain Tom!

[Minny_Weather]

Yup, the models were cuckoo for cocoa puffs last night.

[Niko]

Very mild conditions outside w temps continuing to climb. (@54F now)

 

Looking from my homeoffice window now, rain continues to fall...geez, non-stop. If only this was deeper into the colder season. As Jaster posted earlier, great times ahead!

[Craig-OmahaWX]

This dry cold weather is getting on my nerves. Id rather be in the Ohio Valley getting rain and thunderstorms honestly. But during last years new LRC pattern in October we were at above average moisture and look at how that winter turned out. who really knows now days.

[GDR]

You watch tonight's runs will show something and the mood in here will change fast!

[jaster220]

00z Euro is showing a more organized and colder system for next week laying down some appreciable November snows across the OMA dome!  Classic I-80 snowstorm in the works??  This thing has potential.

 

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017110200/mw/ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_180.png

 

Well, it was looking robust for so early in the cold season. 

[jaster220]

Yup, the models were cuckoo for cocoa puffs last night.

 

 

You watch tonight's runs will show something and the mood in here will change fast!

 

[james1976]

18z GFS snoozefest. Im definitely excited to get this season kicked off. Models need to make it happen! Lol

[Jaycee]

You actually expect Lincoln to get snow?

 

There is still hope. Last GFS run still has a big system, it's just all rain in KS. If it trends Northward, we will be below freezing.

 

Lol oh gosh no! I just want the models to keep me interested until they’re like “oh shoot, we’re still showing precip in Nebraska?!? Heh, uhh no thanks. Guess we’ll settle for Iowa again”, swear to g, It’s almost better having some hope than not having any at all.

[james1976]

Lol oh gosh no! I just want the models to keep me interested until they’re like “oh shoot, we’re still showing precip in Nebraska?!? Heh, uhh no thanks. Guess we’ll settle for Iowa again”, swear to g, It’s almost better having some hope than not having any at all.

You're off to a better start than me! Lol