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The Winter Solstice Storm

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#101
gimmesnow

Posted 17 December 2017 - 07:29 AM

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Needs to come south, just a little bit. I'm right on the edge of the snow according to GFS.



#102
Money

Posted 17 December 2017 - 07:49 AM

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12z gfs running and it looks south of 6z so far through hr 81

#103
St Paul Storm

Posted 17 December 2017 - 07:57 AM

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GFS hanging the energy back at hr 102.

#104
Money

Posted 17 December 2017 - 08:01 AM

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GFS hanging the energy back at hr 102.


And the blocking moves quickly to the east

This isn’t gonna be good

#105
St Paul Storm

Posted 17 December 2017 - 08:01 AM

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GFS trending toward the Euro this run.

#106
St Paul Storm

Posted 17 December 2017 - 08:03 AM

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And the blocking moves quickly to the east
This isn’t gonna be good

.

Thermals are suddenly an issue in Wisco as the blocking heads east. NW trender. Duluth special in the making.

#107
Snowshoe

Posted 17 December 2017 - 08:04 AM

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Rain snow line into C. Wis on the 12Z GFS.

Wisconsin_Rapids.gif


#108
Money

Posted 17 December 2017 - 08:05 AM

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Ha GEM comes back in way south from last run

https://www.tropical...17121712&fh=108

#109
St Paul Storm

Posted 17 December 2017 - 08:06 AM

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Wow big run unfolding. 24 hours and still snowing.

#110
Snowshoe

Posted 17 December 2017 - 08:07 AM

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Low over Madison on GFS at 132

Wisconsin_Rapids.gif


#111
St Paul Storm

Posted 17 December 2017 - 08:09 AM

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Ha GEM comes back in way south from last run
https://www.tropical...17121712&fh=108

That high is farther south on the GEM for sure. Two highs actually.

#112
bud2380

Posted 17 December 2017 - 08:10 AM

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The GEM with significant snows on xmas eve now for all of Iowa. Not sure on accumulation yet but looks like 2-4” type system.

#113
St Paul Storm

Posted 17 December 2017 - 08:13 AM

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So much going on on the GEM. My head is spinning. Stuff popping all over on multiple days.
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#114
St Paul Storm

Posted 17 December 2017 - 08:20 AM

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GFS and GEM thru Dec 23.

Attached Files



#115
Money

Posted 17 December 2017 - 08:21 AM

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The GEM with significant snows on xmas eve now for all of Iowa. Not sure on accumulation yet but looks like 2-4” type system.


Gfs has this system too now

#116
bud2380

Posted 17 December 2017 - 08:25 AM

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Yep. Man that would be sweet if models continue to show this surprise follow up system. And on Xmas eve would be really cool. It even hits Nebraska believe it or not.

#117
St Paul Storm

Posted 17 December 2017 - 08:27 AM

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In the wake of the Solstice system. Mercy. Flashbacks to Jan 2014. I’ll have to look at the records but I’m pretty sure that would be one of the coldest Christmas mornings on record.

Attached Files


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#118
Money

Posted 17 December 2017 - 08:29 AM

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Nothing like a 1060 H in the US

#119
bud2380

Posted 17 December 2017 - 08:29 AM

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Attached File  846D3750-35B1-4C5C-812C-173C3FB4BAF9.png   806.35KB   0 downloads

#120
St Paul Storm

Posted 17 December 2017 - 08:36 AM

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Nothing like a 1060 H in the US


GEM at 1070. Ummmm. 2m temps of -50s in WY.

#121
Madtown

Posted 17 December 2017 - 08:53 AM

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bahhhh humbug

#122
Money

Posted 17 December 2017 - 08:55 AM

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Ukie took a big jump south

120

http://meteocentre.c...d=latest&hh=120

#123
hlcater

Posted 17 December 2017 - 08:57 AM

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Stop going north please! I beg you! But honestly this was likely going to be a MSP special anyways so I'm not surprised. Especially if the surface low trends stronger like it has. The blocking high just isn't strong enough for us down south to cash in unfortunately.

2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#124
Money

Posted 17 December 2017 - 08:57 AM

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144 has a 1008 L developing in OK again

http://meteocentre.c...d=latest&hh=144

#125
GDR

Posted 17 December 2017 - 09:08 AM

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Hey if it means a better chance for a Christmas Eve special than snow like the dickens up north

#126
Tom

Posted 17 December 2017 - 09:31 AM

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Great job with all the posts coming in.  I had a late night last night celebrating one my best friends B Day in the west loop.  This time of year the city is electric and festive.  The only thing missing is snow for the holidays!

 

Interesting trends in the GFS trying to amp this storm which correlates well with the EAR/BSR at the potential for an explosive system.  We saw this leading up to the Dec 4th/5th Blizzard that hit MN and this storm is tracking into the LRC's Long Wave Long Term Trough position where systems intensified.  I'd like to see the 12z Euro run today before jumping the gun but my gut tells me this will end up being a MSP/NC WI special if trends towards a stronger storm persist.  This is a complex system and I hope we get some more consistency today/tomorrow as the wave will be better sampled.  It's currently located in the NE PAC/AK where I've learned models have trouble reading the energy.  As it rides down the west coast of N.A., how far south this storm digs and how much the Alaskan ridge pops along with phasing will be issues the models need to resolve.  Such a complex scenario with various solutions still on the table.

 

I recall the models for the Dec 4th/5th Blizzard doing the same thing days before the event cutting off the energy in the SW and eventually trending towards a better flow which the GFS is doing now.  Look at the last 8 runs and why I always believed this energy would not cut off as this season there is a much better flow that kicks the energy out of the SW.

 

 


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#127
Hawkeye

Posted 17 December 2017 - 09:36 AM

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Just a huge change from the UK this morning.  Last run took a strong low up through central Iowa.  The new run has a strengthening low tracking from St. Louis to Toledo, with heavy defo zone precip from northern Missouri through Chicago to Lake Huron.

 

http://wx.graphics/m...ukmet/ukmet.php


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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#128
NEJeremy

Posted 17 December 2017 - 09:47 AM

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Looks like mainly a rain event now here at least to start on Thursday and timing has been slowed down a bit too. Thankfully on the 12Z run of the GFS it gives us that second piece that moves through on Friday and we end up with 10” forecasted. Wonder how things will change next🤔

#129
Tom

Posted 17 December 2017 - 10:00 AM

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Just a huge change from the UK this morning.  Last run took a strong low up through central Iowa.  The new run has a strengthening low tracking from St. Louis to Toledo, with heavy defo zone precip from northern Missouri through Chicago to Lake Huron.

 

http://wx.graphics/m...ukmet/ukmet.php

Ya, that is a big change and something I'm not biting into at the moment but could be signaling the energy digging more so now that the -EPO is being better digested.  Now, if the Euro does something like this then it will be more encouraging to see.



#130
Money

Posted 17 December 2017 - 10:08 AM

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Euro coming in south through 72

#131
Tom

Posted 17 December 2017 - 10:13 AM

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Euro coming in south through 72

Yup, digging the trough farther south into N Cali...there is also a stronger HP in S Canada...and also a stronger NE PAC HP...



#132
Money

Posted 17 December 2017 - 10:17 AM

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Yup, digging the trough farther south into N Cali...there is also a stronger HP in S Canada...and also a stronger NE PAC HP...


Although at 96 it looks close to the same

#133
Tom

Posted 17 December 2017 - 10:22 AM

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Although at 96 it looks close to the same

0C 850's hugging the MN/IA border from the looks of it and likely an all snow event for MN posters...your riding the edge on this run...



#134
Tom

Posted 17 December 2017 - 10:23 AM

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The 12z Euro continues to like MSP ENE across N Wisco as the jackpot zone...



#135
Tom

Posted 17 December 2017 - 10:32 AM

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12z Euro...



#136
Hawkeye

Posted 17 December 2017 - 10:33 AM

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The UK holds all the energy back for one low tracking south of Chicago Friday.  The Euro ejects a weaker, less moist, low across southeast Iowa Thursday night, leaving the next piece of energy to simply enhance thunderstorms along the front.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#137
Money

Posted 17 December 2017 - 10:35 AM

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Plenty of time left on this one

#138
Tom

Posted 17 December 2017 - 10:39 AM

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The 500hpa vorticity max gets strung out on this Euro run which evolves into a weaker system.  Not sure if I buy that at the moment.



#139
bud2380

Posted 17 December 2017 - 10:43 AM

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Euro also has the xmas eve snow for NE, into IA, but it's further south.  Heaviest band in N Missouri



#140
Stormgeek

Posted 17 December 2017 - 11:09 AM

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Worry not fellows not in the line of this! We here in MSP LOVE watching models up until 24 hours out at which point storms deviate either direction. Everyone is still in the game. :|


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#141
St Paul Storm

Posted 17 December 2017 - 01:30 PM

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Euro also showing a massive arctic outbreak in the wake of this storm. Wowzers.

Attached Files



#142
St Paul Storm

Posted 17 December 2017 - 01:59 PM

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18z GFS looks a few ticks stronger and also a tick south thru hr 96. Negligible difference though so far

#143
Stormgeek

Posted 17 December 2017 - 02:08 PM

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18z GFS looks a few ticks stronger and also a tick south thru hr 96. Negligible difference though so far

Appears to be an MSP special.



#144
St Paul Storm

Posted 17 December 2017 - 02:28 PM

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Pretty similar overall to 12z. Show me this tomorrow and maybe, just maybe, I start to get excited.

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#145
GDR

Posted 17 December 2017 - 02:29 PM

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Christmas Eve storm off the table for Iowa and Nebraska according to the 18z gfs

#146
clintbeed1993

Posted 17 December 2017 - 02:31 PM

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Pretty similar overall to 12z. Show me this tomorrow and maybe, just maybe, I start to get excited.

 

 

Omadome really showing up there.  Wow, glad it's the 18z



#147
NEJeremy

Posted 17 December 2017 - 02:32 PM

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Pretty similar overall to 12z. Show me this tomorrow and maybe, just maybe, I start to get excited.


Screw hole over Nebraska. Goes from 10” on 12Z to 0” on 18Z with no new data. That’s comforting 🙄
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#148
St Paul Storm

Posted 17 December 2017 - 02:35 PM

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^ sorry guys, I was referring to mby and adjacent areas when I said the 18z was pretty similar to the 12z. That obviously isn’t the case everywhere.

#149
jaster220

Posted 17 December 2017 - 02:35 PM

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Euro also showing a massive arctic outbreak in the wake of this storm. Wowzers.


Man, that just screams of a system riding along that thermal divide, especially with the extremes portrayed. You don't see that everyday. KBUF calls it a full lat phasing at 500 mb. Isn't that kinda what the March '93 Superstorm had?

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 5"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 5.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal. One helluva stretch!!

 

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#150
St Paul Storm

Posted 17 December 2017 - 02:36 PM

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MPX showing some rare excitement:
...A MAJOR WINTER STORM POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK...

There remains uncertainty in the forecast on the exact track of a
winter storm late next week, but confidence has increased enough
to warrant a headline in the extended period due to several
reasons.

First, both the GFS/EC have been consistent in the past two runs
on the upper level pattern for this week, and nearly the same for
a surface low developing across Colorado, and moving it northeast
across the plains, and into the western Great Lakes region. Only
the GEM has a slight southern track bias which leads to the
uncertain in the exact track.

Secondly, CIPS analogs for late this week (108 hrs) remained
favorable for accumulating snowfall across Minnesota, and northern
Wisconsin. Only subtle differences in the thermal profile and the
jet couplet are noted, but this is for the number one analog and
not necessarily the mean.

Thirdly, this winter storm is forming in the Rockies, and moving
out into the plains near Colorado/Texas/Oklahoma. This is a
classic scenario of a winter storm for the Upper Midwest. Only
differences are the track on the surface low, the amount of
moisture available, and upper level dynamics.

I don`t want to alarm those who are going to be traveling late
next week, but this scenario does support an eye on the weather
front. As always, uncertainties exist, so always check back for
the latest forecast