Jump to content

Welcome to our forums!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

Feb 28th - March 2nd Storm System

- - - - -

  • Please log in to reply

#101
Tom

Posted 25 February 2018 - 10:37 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 16476 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Do you think it's more realistic for IA since temps should be a lil colder?


Yes, but still think low end ratios are the way to go...not 10:1

#102
james1976

Posted 25 February 2018 - 10:40 AM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3990 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA

I'm all for a heavy wet snow. Havent had that this year yet.



#103
gimmesnow

Posted 25 February 2018 - 10:40 AM

gimmesnow

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 150 posts
  • LocationSE Wisconsin

That map is too bullish on the snow IMO...its rain to snow in Chi with a lot of it being liquid...maybe someone can pull another Euro map with ratios taking into account...

 

Doesn't the shift from SW to W mean that it's going to be less rain and more snow? I imagine it's sucking up less warm air from the south this way. I remember this thing coming very strongly from the south. And that map seems to imply it'll be heading west.



#104
Money

Posted 25 February 2018 - 10:43 AM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7934 posts
https://twitter.com/...832145812185088

You can see precip type maps in his tweet

#105
Tom

Posted 25 February 2018 - 10:50 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 16476 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Per Ryan's maps it would suggest insane snowfall rates around here at HR 102...on top of that, it would mainly be a daytime event...

 

ecmwf_ptype_conus_96.png

ecmwf_ptype_conus_102.png

ecmwf_ptype_conus_108.png

 

ecmwf_ptype_conus_114.png



#106
bud2380

Posted 25 February 2018 - 11:01 AM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1872 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA
Euro text output with .54” for Cedar Rapids while it transitions from rain to snow. Then .9” qpf after it fully transitions

#107
St Paul Storm

Posted 25 February 2018 - 11:10 AM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1587 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
A good number of the 12z GEFS ensembles barely even have much of anything at all. Models are going to struggle mightily for another few days. Entertaining storm tracking at least.

#108
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 25 February 2018 - 11:11 AM

NWLinnCountyIA

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1258 posts
  • LocationHiawatha, Eastern IA
I’m a fan of that euro. But it has not been very consistent, unfortunately.

2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#109
Tom

Posted 25 February 2018 - 11:28 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 16476 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

12z EPS trended back to a snowier solution across IA/SE MN/N IL/SC WI into MI...

Attached Files

  • Attached File  1.png   143.41KB   0 downloads


#110
Money

Posted 25 February 2018 - 11:32 AM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7934 posts
Looks more north up this way

Must be some nice solutions
  • CentralNebWeather likes this

#111
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 25 February 2018 - 11:49 AM

Craig-OmahaWX

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1005 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE (The Shaft City as well)
Lol relying on a storm making its own cold air is never fun. Several ensembles have the snow over eastern ne

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#112
Tom

Posted 25 February 2018 - 11:59 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 16476 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Lol relying on a storm making its own cold air is never fun. Several ensembles have the snow over eastern ne

Nobody said they are "relying" on anything, just stating a fact that storms this strong do in fact generate their own cold air.  



#113
Tom

Posted 25 February 2018 - 12:03 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 16476 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

EPS trends over the last 3 days clearly showing a stronger and colder 850 trend...

 

 

Attached Files


  • jaster220 likes this

#114
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 25 February 2018 - 12:08 PM

Craig-OmahaWX

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1005 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE (The Shaft City as well)
Wow some people are so uptight here. Lol. And the uptight ones are the people who have had more snow then us down here lol

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#115
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 25 February 2018 - 12:17 PM

NWLinnCountyIA

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1258 posts
  • LocationHiawatha, Eastern IA

EPS trends over the last 3 days clearly showing a stronger and colder 850 trend...

Makes sense and is in line with what I was thinking with the 850s. No way there's that little cold air with this strength of system this time of year. It's got some that it can pull in, but dynamics are certainly going to help cool things off.


  • Tom likes this

2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#116
Money

Posted 25 February 2018 - 12:17 PM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7934 posts

Wow some people are so uptight here. Lol. And the uptight ones are the people who have had more snow then us down here lol


You’re clearly mad that you’re not gonna get snow from this system
  • gimmesnow likes this

#117
St Paul Storm

Posted 25 February 2018 - 12:21 PM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1587 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN

Wow some people are so uptight here. Lol. And the uptight ones are the people who have had more snow then us down here lol

The only thing that’s tight is my back, from shoveling so much.

Over the last few days you’ve posted stuff about ‘no sympathy for MN and SD posters if they don’t get a storm’ and ‘MN doesn’t deserve another big system as they’ve stolen all the snow’. Sounds like you’re the one that’s uptight no? When you post stuff like that you should expect blowback.
  • jaster220 and OKwx2k4 like this

#118
St Paul Storm

Posted 25 February 2018 - 12:26 PM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1587 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN

Makes sense and is in line with what I was thinking with the 850s. No way there's that little cold air with this strength of system this time of year. It's got some that it can pull in, but dynamics are certainly going to help cool things off.


I agree with you and Tom. Late Feb/early March is still ideal time for cold air to get into this system. Most areas may be above freezing this week but it’s not like it’s a torch. I think there will be a few nice snow hits with this for sure. Everyone ESE of here in play.

#119
gosaints

Posted 25 February 2018 - 12:37 PM

gosaints

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4450 posts
  • LocationWhitewater state park

The only thing that’s tight is my back, from shoveling so much.

Over the last few days you’ve posted stuff about ‘no sympathy for MN and SD posters if they don’t get a storm’ and ‘MN doesn’t deserve another big system as they’ve stolen all the snow’. Sounds like you’re the one that’s uptight no? When you post stuff like that you should expect blowback.


Awaiting Craigs next meltdown...
  • Money, buzzman289, NWLinnCountyIA and 1 other like this

#120
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 25 February 2018 - 12:54 PM

NWLinnCountyIA

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1258 posts
  • LocationHiawatha, Eastern IA

Is he aware that Minneapolis averages double the amount of snow Omaha does?


2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#121
gimmesnow

Posted 25 February 2018 - 01:56 PM

gimmesnow

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 150 posts
  • LocationSE Wisconsin

Is he aware that Minneapolis averages double the amount of snow Omaha does?

 

No, we are all in the same sub forum so we must all get the same amount of snow. Personally, I'm super pissed off keweenaw got more snow than me! :lol:


  • jaster220 likes this

#122
Money

Posted 25 February 2018 - 02:00 PM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7934 posts
Shift SE on the 18z gfs

LSE goes from 21 to 3

Weaker on snow amounts also

http://www.instantwe...ASNOWI&hour=102

#123
james1976

Posted 25 February 2018 - 02:05 PM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3990 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA

18z GFS falling more in line with Euro?



#124
Money

Posted 25 February 2018 - 02:21 PM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7934 posts
Kind of it’s still stronger than euro

Still shows no snow for NE tho

#125
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 25 February 2018 - 02:29 PM

NWLinnCountyIA

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1258 posts
  • LocationHiawatha, Eastern IA

Kind of it’s still stronger than euro
Still shows no snow for NE tho


But has less QPF, all in all, probably more realistic.

2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#126
GDR

Posted 25 February 2018 - 03:05 PM

GDR

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1242 posts
How much for Omaha?

#127
Money

Posted 25 February 2018 - 03:20 PM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7934 posts
Gfs ensembles are farther north/wetter than 12z


https://www.tropical...18022518&fh=102

1.25-1.5 qpf showing up in SE WI
  • Illinois_WX likes this

#128
Andrew NE

Posted 25 February 2018 - 03:23 PM

Andrew NE

    Forum Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 416 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE

How much for Omaha?


My house: <1”
Craigs house: 6-8”

#129
Money

Posted 25 February 2018 - 03:27 PM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7934 posts

My house: <1”
Craigs house: 6-8”


6-8 snowflakes?

#130
james1976

Posted 25 February 2018 - 03:38 PM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3990 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA

My house: <1”
Craigs house: 6-8”

I'll be surprised if anyone gets 6-8 from this.



#131
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 25 February 2018 - 03:39 PM

Craig-OmahaWX

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1005 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE (The Shaft City as well)

Wow lol. Well unlike the rest of you, I think your all hilarious and I can take a joke. 


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#132
gosaints

Posted 25 February 2018 - 05:18 PM

gosaints

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4450 posts
  • LocationWhitewater state park

Wow lol. Well unlike the rest of you, I think your all hilarious and I can take a joke.


6-9 inch totals were the norm in the metro area. Lots of 9 inch totals in thr northern burbs.

#133
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 25 February 2018 - 06:29 PM

Craig-OmahaWX

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1005 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE (The Shaft City as well)
Wow well congrats!

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#134
gosaints

Posted 25 February 2018 - 06:49 PM

gosaints

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4450 posts
  • LocationWhitewater state park

Wow well congrats!

Craig-OmahaWX
23 Feb 2018
I don't see 9 inches happening up north, its just too fast moving. I could see 4-6 inches max in southern Minnesota

#135
Money

Posted 25 February 2018 - 06:51 PM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7934 posts
NAM with an amped solution which is different than 12z/18z runs

990 NW of STL at 84

https://www.tropical...018022600&fh=84
  • Hawkeye likes this

#136
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 25 February 2018 - 06:52 PM

NWLinnCountyIA

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1258 posts
  • LocationHiawatha, Eastern IA

NAM with an amped solution which is different than 12z/18z runs

990 NW of STL at 84

https://www.tropical...018022600&fh=84

Hard to believe it when its:

A) The 84hr NAM

B ) It was showing barely an open wave the last run.

 

Lots of time left on this one yet.


2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#137
Money

Posted 25 February 2018 - 07:13 PM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7934 posts

Hard to believe it when its:
A) The 84hr NAM
B ) It was showing barely an open wave the last run.
 
Lots of time left on this one yet.


Yup

Phasing systems are the ones models have the most trouble with

#138
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 25 February 2018 - 07:50 PM

Craig-OmahaWX

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1005 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE (The Shaft City as well)

Ok I get it, i deserve every bit of s**t that has come towards me in this topic. Can we just move on now? 

 

What I don't get is how this is a perfect track for eastern Nebraska yet the main show forms just east. 


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#139
Money

Posted 25 February 2018 - 07:53 PM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7934 posts
Gfs caving to the euro

Weaker and farther SE again

#140
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 25 February 2018 - 07:56 PM

Craig-OmahaWX

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1005 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE (The Shaft City as well)

Better for eastern NEB

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13.png


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#141
Money

Posted 25 February 2018 - 07:56 PM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7934 posts
Quite the snowfall total

http://www.instantwe...ASNOWI&hour=096

#142
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 25 February 2018 - 07:57 PM

NWLinnCountyIA

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1258 posts
  • LocationHiawatha, Eastern IA

Quite the snowfall total

http://www.instantwe...ASNOWI&hour=096

Over a tiny, tiny area. 

 

0227-20090502-Canon-EOS-DIGITAL-REBEL-XS


  • james1976 likes this

2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#143
Money

Posted 25 February 2018 - 08:00 PM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7934 posts
Finally get that track from STL to near Chicago and somehow can’t even get any precip up here this way smh
  • Madtown likes this

#144
Hawkeye

Posted 25 February 2018 - 08:12 PM

Hawkeye

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1362 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, IA

So, the 00z nam and ICON are more in phase, the GFS a tad less, the GDPS a tad more.  Expect more of this for another day.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#145
bud2380

Posted 25 February 2018 - 08:15 PM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1872 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA
10:1 maps showing a foot for Cedar Rapids. That would be one wet heavy snow.

#146
Money

Posted 25 February 2018 - 08:21 PM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7934 posts
GEM is weaker with the surface low (5-6 mb weaker) and yet it has much more precip

https://www.tropical...018022600&fh=84

#147
james1976

Posted 25 February 2018 - 08:38 PM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3990 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA

Snowball fight in one person's backyard



#148
Money

Posted 25 February 2018 - 08:46 PM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7934 posts
Ukie at 96 has a 991 L in central MI

http://meteocentre.c...d=latest&hh=096

#149
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 25 February 2018 - 08:49 PM

Craig-OmahaWX

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1005 posts
  • LocationOmaha, NE (The Shaft City as well)

This sounds like one of those situations where you won't find out until the night before what it will do. 


For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#150
Hawkeye

Posted 25 February 2018 - 09:07 PM

Hawkeye

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1362 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, IA

This sounds like one of those situations where you won't find out until the night before what it will do. 

 

Well, in the next day or two we should have a better idea of how well the northern and southern waves are aligned.  We just need the northern wave to not speed out ahead.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"