October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

The 00z looks like a 1.375+ inch disaster.

Wouldn't count on much. Our storm machine has been broken since April 2017.

[El_Nina]

I'm sure the fan base would be typical for any west coast team after the new car smell wears off. Ravenous if you're winning, not so much if you're not.

They would have to be good from the gecko to start getting a following probabaly. I concede.

[TT-SEA]

They would have to be good from the gecko to start getting a following probabaly. I concede.

Definitely from the gecko.

[Deweydog]

Wouldn't count on much. Our storm machine has been broken since April 2017.

I imagine the next ice will be quite dry.

 

#sneakpreview

[El_Nina]

Definitely from the gecko.

Slang!

[Dave]

That is the same feeling I would have.  

 

But someone like Andrew on this forum (who is from Portland and went to CWU in Ellensburg) is a RABID fan of CWU football and the Ducks and the Seahawks.   Crazy for all of them!    I guess they are all mutually exclusive.  

I grew up hating the huskies. We would sell out one game per season and that was only if we were hosting Washington. They took over 40% of Autzen stadium and were generally obnoxious about it (mid to late 80's) and kicked our butts routinely. 

 

On a side note, I'm still bitterly disappointed we blew it and missed hosting the Pac-12 championship game in Dec 2013. It was 0 degrees at what would have been the end of the game!

[TT-SEA]

Slang!

 

 

You goofy kids!  

[Front Ranger]

Definitely from the gecko.

 

The Portland Geckos?!?

 

Makes about as much sense as the Utah Jazz.

[Front Ranger]

I grew up hating the huskies. We would sell out one game per season and that was only if we were hosting Washington. They took over 40% of Autzen stadium and were generally obnoxious about it (mid to late 80's) and kicked our butts routinely. 

 

On a side note, I'm still bitterly disappointed we blew it and missed hosting the Pac-12 championship game in Dec 2013. It was 0 degrees at what would have been the end of the game!

 

No kidding, that would have been legendary. The PNW Ice Bowl that wasn't.

[El_Nina]

You goofy kids!

 

It's being integrated into the English language so might as well assimilate. It's not gonna go away LOL

[Deweydog]

The Portland Geckos?!?

 

Makes about as much sense as the Utah Jazz.

Apparently you haven't been exposed to good Mormon scat.

[El_Nina]

Well **** me then

[Jesse]

Apparently you haven't been exposed to good Mormon scat.

Gross.

[Front Ranger]

Gross.

 

It's a sports term.

[Deweydog]

Gross.

Get your mind out of the gutter, young man.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

It's a sports term.

 

R. Kelly seal of approval

[Jesse]

It's a sports term.

It’s a joke.

[Front Ranger]

It’s a joke.

It's poop.

[Deweydog]

Words with lots of meanings are fun.

[BLI snowman]

I think your memory is flawed. These were all colder and wetter than average Octobers in the SEA area, and they were all followed by pathetic winters. Though 1966 was better in the north, I think.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Eh, no, my memory is fine. And I don't even live in the "SEA area", but to your point on each month there:

 

SEA's averages in October are 52.48 average temperature and 3.75" of average precipitation, respectively.

 

October 1999: 2.26", 52.13 = Dry and slightly cool

October 1975: 7.75", 51.41= Wet and cool (this has been covered. I have mentioned this one several times now)

October 1966: 2.92", 51.40= Dry and cool

October 1982: 4.07", 52.71= Slightly wet and slightly warm

October 2007: 3.32", 50.53= Slightly dry and cool

 

So the only legitimately cool and wet October of the bunch there is the year I had initially mentioned. It's almost like I know our area's climate history pretty well or something.....

[Phil]

I’m looking at the gridded NOAA-NCEI data for the region. Using one station for an analysis like this is silly. Regionally speaking, those were cool/wet Octobers.

[BLI snowman]

I’m looking at the gridded NOAA-NCEI data for the region. Using one station for an analysis like this is silly. Regionally speaking, those were cool/wet Octobers.

 

I can use other stations, if you'd like. The actual data is pretty straightforward. At PDX, the only cool + wet October of that bunch was also 1975. Same story at OLM. 

 

At EUG, 2007 and 1982 were also cool/wet. Of course, 2007-08 was a pretty good winter there.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I can use other stations, if you'd like. The actual data is pretty straightforward. At PDX, the only cool + wet October of that bunch was also 1975. Same story at OLM.

 

At EUG, 2007 and 1982 were also cool/wet. Of course, 2007-08 was a pretty good winter there.

Eugene had 1 snow day in Jan. That was it. It took heavy precip rates to get a slushy inch.

[Phil]

I can use other stations, if you'd like. The actual data is pretty straightforward. At PDX, the only cool + wet October of that bunch was also 1975. Same story at OLM.

 

At EUG, 2007 and 1982 were also cool/wet. Of course, 2007-08 was a pretty good winter there.

There are dozens of stations in the area that NOAA uses in their reanalysis products. No need to isolate select stations, since we’re looking at weather patterns and not microclimates.

[BLI snowman]

Eugene had 1 snow day in Jan. That was it. It took heavy precip rates to get a slushy inch.

 

Eugene proper had 5-7" with the 1/27/08 storm. One of the better events this century in Lane County.

[BLI snowman]

There are dozens of stations in the area that NOAA uses in their reanalysis products. No need to isolate select stations, since we’re looking at weather patterns and not microclimates.

 

I can tell you pretty directly that October 1999 was not cool and wet around here. Nor were years like 1963, 1966, or 1982. The numbers don't really lie there. 

[Phil]

I can tell you pretty directly that October 1999 was not cool and wet around here. Nor were years like 1963, 1966, or 1982. The numbers don't really lie there.

They were cooler and wetter than average for the region as a whole, though. And the 500mb patterns were decisively troughy, except for 1963.

[TT-SEA]

30s, 40s, and 50s out there this morning... seems like less 30s this morning though.

 

Pre-dawn temps in the 50s near the Sound and in the foothills... and in elevated places in the middle like Lakemont in Bellevue.

 

48 at SEA and 49 here.

 

 

 

There is a little east wind here and it feels dry out there... but looks like there might be a little ground fog in the valley.

 

[MossMan]

Stopped for fuel in North Bend at 6am and there was a warm breeze blowing. However here in Ellensburg it is 30 degrees currently.

[TT-SEA]

Stopped for fuel in North Bend at 6am and there was a warm breeze blowing. However here in Ellensburg it is 30 degrees currently.

 

Just let the dog out and there is a just a light breeze that comes and goes... but it definitely feels warmer when the breeze comes through.

[Jesse]

Almost like we’re in an unseasonably warm weather pattern or something.

 

Low of 42 here this morning.

[Geos]

Little breeze out there. Low of 42 here too.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF and 00Z WRF showed it getting pretty stagnant starting Friday... we have entered the inversion season during this ridgy period.    There could be places stuck in the mucky gunk all day over the weekend.   

[Jesse]

00Z ECMWF and 00Z WRF showed it getting pretty stagnant starting Friday... we have entered the inversion season during this ridgy period. There could be places stuck in the mucky gunk all day over the weekend.

Finally some good news!

 

Although we probably won’t get that lucky down here.

[Jesse]

Everyone knows the inversion season doesn’t start until Pearl Harbor Day at the earliest, anyway.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Chiloquin in S. Central Oregon had a 71/10 yesterday.

[TT-SEA]

Finally some good news!

 

Although we probably won’t get that lucky down here.

 

 

Maybe not.

 

Here are the highs on Saturday per the 00Z ECMWF... you see where it shows an inversion near the Sound but not down there.  

 

[TT-SEA]

You can see evidence of a very shallow inversion in the valley here.

 

Currently... 53 and a little breezy up here but 36 down in the valley just a couple miles away.    There is probably a specific spot where the temperature jumps up about 15 degrees instantly when coming up the hill.  

 

 

[Deweydog]

Everyone knows the inversion season doesn’t start until Pearl Harbor Day at the earliest, anyway.

Haha! Increasing sun angles are the DEVIL!

[Jesse]

Haha! Decreasing sun angles are the DEVIL!

We know.