October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Wind managed to die off here. Hit a low of 38.

[Omegaraptor]

Currently 48° here. Parts of Oregon are ridiculous, especially Eugene which is experiencing a hard frost and a diurnal range of over 40° today.

 

Actually, the entire stretch from the southern Willamette Valley to the Klamath Mountains west of Redding has insane diurnal ranges. Same goes east of the Cascades from Sunriver area to Lassen NP. These both continue further south, it’s just where my idea of the PNW ends.

[Tyler Mode]

Didn't quite make it.  Dropped to 33 this morning.

[TT-SEA]

Same thing again this morning... elevated and/or wind prone areas are much warmer than the protected valleys.

 

53 at one station out here in the foothills but its 34 down in the valley. 47 at Lakemont in Bellevue (south of Lake Sammamish) at 1,170 feet with a NE breeze... but 30s in some places near there which are much lower. 46 at SEA right now after a low of 44.

 

Eugene can go below freezing much easier at this time of year than my area at 1,000 feet and 300 miles farther north.

 

[BLI snowman]

Worked out splendidly last year!

 

Last October wasn't too cool/wet, though. A little wet and a little mild overall. And we can do much worse than last year as far as winter is concerned.

[Jesse]

I don't have remote access to my Eugene weather station, but I'd bet it was 10-15 degrees warmer there this morning than it was at KEUG.

 

This effect is very common and even more pronounced in SoCal during weak offshore setups in winter. It can be over 60º at my house in the hills at 1,860', and below freezing at wind-protected valley sites like Ojai and Chino, which are at ~500 ft.

Hillsboro and every Willamette Valley station from Aurora south was in the mid-30s or lower this morning, though (sans McMinnville which kept a wind all night). I see Corvallis also fell to freezing. So it’s not like EUG is some sort of huge outlier.

[Jesse]

Last October wasn't too cool/wet, though. A little wet and a little mild overall. And we can do much worse than last year as far as winter is concerned.

Last October was cooler than average for most the region. That annoying warm spell toward the end of the month did put a dent in things, though.

 

[TT-SEA]

Hillsboro and every Willamette Valley station from Aurora south was in the mid-30s or lower this morning, though (sans McMinnville which kept a wind all night). I see Corvallis also fell to freezing. So it’s not like EUG is some sort of huge outlier.

 

On the hour at 8 am... SEA was at 48 while EUG was 31.  

 

Places with any elevation or prone to a NE or E wind are much warmer... as usual in this type of pattern in the fall.  

 

Take note Phil... elevation does not always mean colder.  PNW microclimates are tough to understand unless you live here.     

[Jesse]

Maybe not a huge outlier, but certainly a significant one.  It's almost always the coolest location anywhere in the valley on calm, clear nights.  On the flip side, my hilly location is almost always warmer than any valley location on clear nights, so the combined spread can be impressive considering both locations are technically in Eugene.

It’s a cool spot but pretty reflective of rural locations on the valley floor. Of course the hills are going to be a different story during radiational cooling setups.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Maybe not a huge outlier, but certainly a significant one.  It's almost always the coolest location anywhere in the valley on calm, clear nights.  On the flip side, my hilly location is almost always warmer than any valley location on clear nights, so the combined spread can be impressive considering both locations are technically in Eugene.

 

I think it is a bit of an outlier for airport locations, but not the valley as a whole. It is probably fairly representative of rural south valley locations like Monroe.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It’s a cool spot but pretty reflective of rural locations on the valley floor. Of course the hills are going to be a different story during radiational cooling setups.

 

Even in the hills there are big variations in setups like this. Russellville near Molalla in the hills is exposed to offshore winds and only got down to 48, I am not and hit 35. 

[TT-SEA]

Even in the hills there are big variations in setups like this. Russellville near Molalla in the hills is exposed to offshore winds and only got down to 48, I am not and hit 35. 

 

 

Your area is sort of unique.   Elevated... but yet completely protected from offshore wind.   I can't think of many spots like that up here.   All of the elevated places in King County are more exposed to NE and E wind as you would expect. 

 

Your lack of exposure to offshore flow is a snow killer in set ups that rely on offshore flow.   On the flip side... you are strongly favored with cold onshore flow!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Downtown Springfield hit 35F.  Still no freeze yet. We are typically warmer than EUG. There are like 4 stations in downtown Springfield that are all reading at least 5F warmer than all the other sites down here.  Not sure what's going on there...maybe a bit of wind last night? It felt calm to me.

[Jesse]

Your area is sort of unique. Elevated... but yet completely protected from offshore wind. I can't think of many spots like that up here. All of the elevated places in King County are more exposed to NE and E wind as you would expect.

 

 

That’s probably only true if you are talking about elevated places in King County that are within 10 minutes of a QFC.

 

There are plenty of spots in the Cascade foothills up there that are both elevated and wind sheltered. That is the case for most of the valleys leading into the western part of the Alpine Lakes.

[MossMan]

38 this morning.

[Jesse]

Will be interesting to see if PDX managed to hit upper 30s this morning.

[TT-SEA]

That’s probably only true if you are talking about elevated places in King County that are within 10 minutes of a QFC.

 

There are plenty of spots in the Cascade foothills up there that are both elevated and wind sheltered. That is the case for most of the valleys leading into the western part of the Alpine Lakes.

 

 

Yes... once you get into the mountains.    But starting east of North Bend westward to Seattle... elevated places are also more wind exposed.    

[Jesse]

Downtown Springfield hit 35F. Still no freeze yet. We are typically warmer than EUG. There are like 4 stations in downtown Springfield that are all reading at least 5F warmer than all the other sites down here. Not sure what's going on there...maybe a bit of wind last night? It felt calm to me.

Springfield is pretty hilly. Could just be valley floor locations versus spots in the hills that were better mixed.

[Jesse]

Yes... once you get into the mountains. But starting east of North Bend westward to Seattle... elevated places are also more wind exposed.

Snoqualmie gap. As well as generally better mixing overall as the topography starts to break up toward the lowlands.

[TT-SEA]

Snoqualmie gap. And just generally better mixing as the topography starts to break up toward the lowlands.

 

 

You sound like someone who understands our local geography!   Just anticipating Phil telling me next month that because Eugene and Olympia went below freezing... then it must be much colder in my area.   Does not work that way. 

[TT-SEA]

At 9:15 am... its currently 54 at the Fire Training Academy east of North Bend at 1,580 feet.    

 

And its 37 in Carnation... deep in the Snoqualmie Valley at 89 feet.  

 

 

[Geos]

Yes... once you get into the mountains.    But starting east of North Bend westward to Seattle... elevated places are also more wind exposed.    

 

Definitely catch the wind more up here compared to the 522 corridor or downtown Kirkland.

 

Nice day so far. Made it down to 40.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS and 12Z GEM bring in a consolidated jet stream towards the middle of next week... 12Z ICON looks much more splitty though.  

 

We were due for a dry spell... now feels like we will be due for a consolidated jet by next week.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z GFS and 12Z GEM bring in a consolidated jet stream towards the middle of next week... 12Z ICON looks much more splitty though.  

 

We were due for a dry spell... now feels like we will be due for a consolidated jet by next week.   

 

Here in the Willamette Valley the last week of October is kind of the traditional start to the rainy season.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What is modeled would definitely get SLE above 1" on the month, so all that analysis would be for naught. Still not sure we see 2 weeks straight of rain or anything. Probably just a trend toward more typical fall weather. 

[Deweydog]

Starting to look like this dry spell may end similarly to previous dry spells with a return to wetter weather.

[Blizzard777]

38 for low here as well

[Tyler Mode]

Starting to look like this dry spell may end similarly to previous dry spells with a return to wetter weather.

True, but the real question is will it remain wet until it dries out again???

[Phil]

Last October wasn't too cool/wet, though. A little wet and a little mild overall. And we can do much worse than last year as far as winter is concerned.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[BLI snowman]

 

 

I challenge you to to find some actually cold + wet Octobers that led to actually terrible winters here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last winter was certainly nothing to write home about, but we have seen far worse. Below average December and February. Just had a very forgettable January torch.

[jakeinthevalley]

Sunday morning when I got up at 6:30am it was 49 degrees with a slight breeze out of the NE. This is in the hills of West Salem.

 

Headed to a golf game down near Lebanon. Tee time was delayed by a frost warning until about 9am. Course had a low of 30F

[Phil]

I challenge you to to find some actually cold + wet Octobers that led to actually terrible winters here.

That’s too subjective...what is a “terrible winter”? I can list a half dozen cooler than average Octobers that were followed by warmer than average winters and vice versa in the satellite era.

[Phil]

This October stuff drives me off the wall! It’s like one of those old wives tales that has no factual basis but withstands the test of time anyway.

 

Just because a select 5 or 6 cold/snowy winters featured cold Octobers and 2-week thaws in November doesn’t make it anything more than coincidence in wavetrain seasonality juxtaposed via the state of subseasonal tropical forcing variabilty.

[Jesse]

It’s like one of those old wives tales that has no factual basis but withstands the test of time anyway.

Kind of like global cooling always being right around the corner.

[Phil]

Kind of like global cooling alway being right around the corner.

Your hyperbolic mischaracterization of my prediction(s) would hold more weight if you employed proper spelling/grammar.

[Jesse]

Your hyperbolic mischaracterization of my prediction(s) would hold more weight if you employed proper spelling/grammar.

Yeah.

[Jesse]

Nice to see a change on the horizon on the GFS ensembles.

[BLI snowman]

That’s too subjective...what is a “terrible winter”? I can list a half dozen cooler than average Octobers that were followed by warmer than average winters and vice versa in the satellite era.

 

A winter lacking in any lowland snowstorms or arctic fronts.

 

Cool and wet is the distinction. A dry October like 2002 wouldn't qualify. 1975-76 would probably be the last really mediocre winter we had following a cool/wet October. It's pretty rare if you actually know our climo