October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

[TT-SEA]

[Jesse]

Looks like the 70+ stretch will go unbroken at PDX, since today was probably their best shot of the next several to fall a little short.

 

The mid-October 1952 stretch of nine consecutive days could get a run for its money.

[El_Nina]

Looks like the 70+ stretch will go unbroken at PDX, since today was probably their best shot of the next several to fall a little short.

 

The mid-October 1952 stretch of nine consecutive days could get a run for its money.

We are very much becoming California. The amount of sun lately has been incredible.

[Phil]

Not officially yet, no.

The warm water volume anomaly is pretty low compared to that of the typical niño. I still think this ends up verifying as warm neutral..at least until next spring or summer. There should also be a brief pullback between now and then, between OKW diffraction cycles.

 

Deepening solar minimum + easterlies above the tropopause w/ poleward deposition of westerly momentum should keep structure the extratropics to help keep amplitude low hence reduce the backslosh next spring..less countering fluid inertia with the upwelling wave makes all the difference in the world.

[wx_statman]

Ha. Paging Wx_Statman for data from 1842.

 

That was the winter that wouldn't end in the Midwest. Coldest March (1843) of all time. Nothing has come close in modern records. 

 

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-90-481-2828-0_9

 

March 1843: The Most Abnormal Month Ever?

[Tyler Mode]

Now often over-photographed, but no less gorgeous Lower Lewis River Falls and the surrounding area today...This was my first trip there despite living relatively close.  Perfect weather with temps in the 30s this morning, highs in the 60s and dewpoints in the 20s

 

 

 

[Geos]

Got some cooling in the "el nino" region.

 

[Geos]

38 this morning and all the way up to 63 this afternoon. A really nice day.

[TT-SEA]

38 this morning and all the way up to 63 this afternoon. A really nice day.

68 at SEA and 68 out here.

 

I would not say "all the way up to 63".

[Geos]

68 at SEA and 68 out here.

 

I would not say "all the way up to 63".

 

I think my car thermometer said 65 at one point. Of course I was down by Lake Washington most of the day. Saw a couple nearby sensors in the 64-65 range on top of the hill. I think you had more of a downslope effect out there.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the 70+ stretch will go unbroken at PDX, since today was probably their best shot of the next several to fall a little short.

 

The mid-October 1952 stretch of nine consecutive days could get a run for its money.

Today was downright disgusting. I threw up at the pumpkin patch. Everyone there seemed really angry... I am sure they all wanted sideways rain and 42 degrees.

[MossMan]

Today was downright disgusting. I threw up at the pumpkin patch. Everyone there seemed really angry... I am sure they all wanted sideways rain and 42 degrees.

Truly horrific day. Everyone I ran into today commented about how awful this weekend has been and they cannot wait for the drizzle and 42 degree weather to come back. Just disgusting!

[Jesse]

Now often over-photographed, but no less gorgeous Lower Lewis River Falls and the surrounding area today...This was my first trip there despite living relatively close. Perfect weather with temps in the 30s this morning, highs in the 60s and dewpoints in the 20s

 

 

 

Nice pics. Any signs of all the crowds there this summer? That place kind of blew up in popularity overnight.

[Jesse]

Freeze warning posted for much of Clark County and the Central/Southern Willamette Valley tonight. Although it’s likely to stay above 40 IMBY unless the east wind dies off early.

 

Nice to get a bit of the cold airmass that dove down the Rockies the last few days. The next week certainly looks warm, though.

[Tyler Mode]

Nice pics. Any signs of all the crowds there this summer? That place kind of blew up in popularity overnight.

Not at all.  I picked up one piece of trash but the crowds and their remnants are gone.  I certainly hope people that frequent it will keep it clean.

[Jesse]

Not at all. I picked up one piece of trash but the crowds and their remnants are gone. I certainly hope people that frequent it will keep it clean.

Glad to hear that!

[TT-SEA]

5th dry day in a row here.   

 

I think my call for at least 7-10 days is in the bag... looks like we will probably end up with 13.      

[Front Ranger]

5th dry day in a row here.   

 

I think my call for at least 7-10 days is in the bag... looks like we will probably end up with 13.      

 

I thought your call was for a 1986 redux, aka 21 dry days in a row?

[wx_statman]

Earliest snowfall on record in Wichita, Kansas tonight. In progress:

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=kict&num=25&raw=0&banner=off

 

 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

I thought your call was for a 1986 redux, aka 21 dry days in a row?

No. I mentioned that happened in 1986 after a troughy, wet period which matched up well to our recent troughy period... so a dry streak might be in the cards again. I also said it was unlikely it would last that long and 7-10 days seemed more likely. I never predicted a 23-day dry spell but if you just skim posts you might miss some key details.

[Esquimalt]

Earliest snowfall on record in Wichita, Kansas tonight. In progress:

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=kict&num=25&raw=0&banner=off

Analog?

[Dave]

It was a great day to be a duck on Saturday. Beautiful weather, but a bit windy. Finally recovered enough to post a pic. 

 

[Jbolin]

It was a great day to be a duck on Saturday. Beautiful weather, but a bit windy. Finally recovered enough to post a pic. 

 

Congrats, enjoy your shitty winter. 

[Dave]

Congrats, enjoy your shitty winter. 

TWL moving here is a good luck charm. Looking forward to the historic snowfall. 

[wx_statman]

Analog?

 

Would be a good one for you. Not so much down here.....

[Dave]

Holy carp. TWC has EUG highs at 75 or higher for the next 7 days. i'm sure that it won't verify, but it would be pretty historic if it did. 

[Jesse]

The airmass next weekend gets pretty crazy on the 00Z. 850s approaching 20C.

 

Record highs for PDX on the 20th and 21st are 77 and 80, both set in 2003.

[BLI snowman]

So we are seeing a few interesting things, and feel free to correct me.

 

- Long, warm, and dry stretch in October

- West Southwest

- Isolate but strong tropical cyclones in the SE

- Early snows for the southern Rockies, Northern AZ, and mid plains

- warm and snowless Alaska

- low solar

 

So, what are some analogous years we can pick over until the crushing reality of El Niño smacks us over the head in a few weeks?

None of that is too promising if you like winter in the PNW.

 

The reality is that cool and wet Octobers are usually a good omen for a prominent winter polar jet.

[Jesse]

None of that is too promising if you like winter in the PNW.

 

The reality is that cool and wet Octobers are usually a good omen for a prominent winter polar jet.

The first 1/3 of October was cold and wet, so maybe the first 1/3 of winter will be?

 

Would fit Niño climo.

[BLI snowman]

The first 1/3 of October was cold and wet, so maybe the first 1/3 of winter will be?

 

Would fit Niño climo.

First 1/5 of October.

[Jesse]

First 1/5 of October.

December 1-18 it is.

 

#2005

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Going with + temp departures for Eugene/Springfield for Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, and Mar. Also think it's going to be pretty boring regionally. Maybe a 97-98 style snowstorm for the PDX metro and nothing notable south of there. The more I think about it I think it'll be the second snowless winter in a row for this guy. I've never gone 3 yrs in a row without an accumulating snowfall and with 19-20 likely an even stronger niño than this one, I'm mentally prepared to not see another one for a very long time at this point.

[Front Ranger]

No. I mentioned that happened in 1986 after a troughy, wet period which matched up well to our recent troughy period... so a dry streak might be in the cards again. I also said it was unlikely it would last that long and 7-10 days seemed more likely. I never predicted a 23-day dry spell but if you just skim posts you might miss some key details.

 

I know.

[Phil]

 

That was the winter that wouldn't end in the Midwest. Coldest March (1843) of all time. Nothing has come close in modern records.

 

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-90-481-2828-0_9

March 1843: The Most Abnormal Month Ever?

Ha, figures. Though it would fit with the recent tendencies for cold in March/April.

[Phil]

None of that is too promising if you like winter in the PNW.

 

The reality is that cool and wet Octobers are usually a good omen for a prominent winter polar jet.

Worked out splendidly last year!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The game Saturday was great. Best game I have been to since the Michigan State game in 2014. Snapped this shot as I was leaving Saturday, my wife wanted to go down on the field, I told her I am too old for that kind of thing. Plus we've beaten the huskies before... It was funny, the Huskies kicker at halftime was practicing field goals and he missed pretty much every one. Our seats are pretty close and just a little to the left (from this view, right if you are kicking) of the goal post, and he was sailing them our way pretty much every time. I remarked to a friend, they better hope he doesn't have to make this with the game on the line...Sure enough...

 

[TT-SEA]

The game Saturday was great. Best game I have been to since the Michigan State game in 2014. Snapped this shot as I was leaving Saturday, my wife wanted to go down on the field, I told her I am too old for that kind of thing. Plus we've beaten the huskies before... It was funny, the Huskies kicker at halftime was practicing field goals and he missed pretty much every one. Our seats are pretty close and just a little to the left (from this view, right if you are kicking) of the goal post, and he was sailing them our way pretty much every time. I remarked to a friend, they better hope he doesn't have to make this with the game on the line...Sure enough...

 

 

I have never understood why teams ignore the kicker position.   Build a great team and then sink your entire season because you have a scrawny 19-year old kid who can occasionally make a FG.   Its a killer.   Same thing in the NFL.     Competitive games are often determined by the kicker.    Just happened in the Patriots-Chiefs game last night... it was all about the Brady vs. Mahomes battle but the Patriots kicker decided the actual winner of the game.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have never understood why teams ignore the kicker position.   Build a great team and then sink your entire season because you have a scrawny 19-year old kid who can occasionally make a FG.   Its a killer.   Same thing in the NFL.     Competitive games are often determined by the kicker.   Look at the Patriots-Chiefs game last night.

 

Exactly. The kick UW had to win it was under 40 yards, should have been almost automatic. When Chip Kelly coached at Oregon they never had a kicker who could make one from more than extra point range. It was ridiculous and they did lose a game against Stanford and USC because of it. Probably would have played in at least one other national title game if they could have kicked...

 

One more thing though, notice in that picture the flag fully stretched out from north to south. The wind was at the kickers back, but it was also a cross wind, he just missed by about 1-2', the wind may have made a difference too.