2/11 - 2/13 Major Winter Storm

[hlcater]

Back to 1"/hr rates easy. Flakes are only average sized but there's so many of them it looks like heavy rain almost. Can't see the U of I hospital, about a 1/2 mile away. Vis is definitely under 1/4 mile atm.

[Hawkeye]

2.3" now, 1.3 in the last 65 minutes.

[gosaints]

Short term mesos looking good for many

[East Dubzz]

Short term mesos looking good for many

Have been getting more and more optimistic as the day has gone on. Not too many hiccups today, radar has come together nicely. And here’s to hoping for no additional surprises!

 

Considering the heavy returns are just starting to make their way in, I’m very pleased with how this has started off. And props to the models around here. Showed some drier air at first, but the heavier stuff moving in a little before 6... and that’s exactly what has happened.

[hlcater]

Looks like mix is starting to creep into S Johnson County. Can we not?

[gimmesnow]

Is this stuff light and fluffy or is it wet and heavy?

[hlcater]

Is this stuff light and fluffy or is it wet and heavy?

 

It's pretty wet down here in Iowa City. 

[hlcater]

It's gonna be close... Looking like we go into a period of mixing. Mixed precip line is down by Riverside and moving northward at a good clip yet.

[gosaints]

It's pretty wet down here in Iowa City.

was that expected?

[East Dubzz]

was that expected?

Yeah it should have been. Ratios were supposed to be pretty low with this event because of the warmer temps. Iowa city is sitting at 30 degrees.

[East Dubzz]

With 20+ DBZ bands now overcoming the area consistently, the snowfall is now ripping good. Not huge flakes by any means, but not pixie dust either. And lots coming down. Have to imagine it’s at or near an inch per hour now.

[hlcater]

Mix. FZRA and snow. Dang it. WAA was wayyyy undermodeled especially by the GFS and HRRR.

[james1976]

1 inch down. Been comin down pretty solid. Started almost 2 hours ago.

[james1976]

Has to be just pounding in east central IA

[East Dubzz]

Has to be just pounding in east central IA

I’m not even in the best of it and it’s ripping here. I see some yellow returns to the county south of me. Wonder if that’s snow..

[bud2380]

Pounding snow in North Liberty. Beautiful. Hopefully that warm layer stays just south.

[hlcater]

Snow has stopped now. 100% freezing rain. Awesome!

[jcwxguy]

About 3-4 inches on the ground here by looking

[hlcater]

WAA is unstoppable. Horrific model performance. Might even make it to US 30.

[East Dubzz]

WAA is unstoppable. Horrific model performance. Might even make it to US 30.

Interesting that you have freezing rain but Bud is reporting snow. You’re still in Hiawatha, right?

[Stormy]

Pounding snow in North Liberty. Beautiful. Hopefully that warm layer stays just south.

I have bad news for you. About 30 or so minutes ago it began switching over to mixed precip here. Appears it's moving due north now, but it may stay all snow for you since there could be a sharp southern cutoff. I have 3.3" or so & am wondering if most of the accumulation is past.

[hlcater]

Interesting that you have freezing rain but Bud is reporting snow. You’re still in Hiawatha, right?

Iowa City. In other words, I'm toast for the next several hours.

[Tom]

Freezing Drizzle has started here....

[East Dubzz]

Iowa City. In other words, I'm toast for the next several hours.

Middle of Iowa City?

[hlcater]

Middle of Iowa City?

Yes

[Iowawx]

Iowa City is at 30 degrees right now. Cedar Rapids is at 27. Should be able to stay all snow here.

[james1976]

Im liking how this sounds from DMX afd:
Ongoing Winter Storm...
As has been well-advertised, winter weather conditions have begun
to impact most Iowa along and south of I-80. In short, a surge of
theta- e advection oriented west-east that is well-phased with a
significant low-level moisture and decent moisture flux converge
in the lowest few KM of the atmos will continue to propagate
northward through Iowa this evening into the overnight hours.
Concurrently, at 21z Mon, a band of forcing highlighted by mid-
level Q-vector convergence that is well-phased down to 950mb via
frontogenetically-driven ascent and increased low-level moisture,
will be pushing eastward towards Iowa. Models are beginning to
pick up on this feature and are having the current system more or
less "ingest" this added energy Tuesday morning. The impacts of
this interaction are to add to snow amounts in northeastern to
northern Iowa Tuesday morning- lingering the snow through the late
morning hours. Snow amounts in north-central Iowa may need to be
increased from 06z-12z Tue as this becomes better realized by
models. Given the vertical profile across northern Iowa during
this time, snow ratios may be very, very high, as saturations is
occurring well into the DGZ given the cold temperature profile.
Thicknesses are not great, so QPF will not be great... but with
ratios potentially over 20:1, it will not take high QPF for minor
accumulations to continue.
 

[hlcater]

Mixing line looks to be stalling in North Liberty.

[OmahaSnowFan]

[Stormy]

I was on some random hill north of Riverside. Not sure where lol.

Ok. Then you were probably about 8-10 miles to my east. It blew up wnw of me

[GDR]

Pound town right now just Measured 5 1/2

[MKEstorm]

Started snowing  in MKE!

[hlcater]

What's it doing in North Liberty Bud? Correlation Coefficient says you should be starting to mix there too, unfortunately.

[VMB443]

Started snowing  in MKE!

 

Just started for me too, what part of Milwaukee are you in?  I'm just west of the Milwaukee County line in Waukesha County.

[East Dubzz]

What's it doing in North Liberty Bud? Correlation Coefficient says you should be starting to mix there too, unfortunately.

Good point.

 

*googles correlation coefficient*

[hlcater]

Good point.

 

*googles correlation coefficient*

Yea I've had my eyes glued to CC for the past hour or so watching in dismay as I get overtaken by the mixed precipitation shown in yellow/orange.

 

[MKEstorm]

Just started for me too, what part of Milwaukee are you in?  I'm just west of the Milwaukee County line in Waukesha County.

 

Four miles west of Mitchell Airport.

[East Dubzz]

Yea I've had my eyes glued to CC for the past hour or so watching in dismay as I get overtaken by the mixed precipitation shown in yellow/orange.

 

Still freezing rain where you’re at?

[hlcater]

Just a proof of concept of how useful CC is over using a ptype algorithm. Just compare these two screenshots. According to this, I should look out my snow and see it just ripping snow, but I actually look out my window and see sleet and freezing rain. In accordance with CC.

 

[VMB443]

Four miles west of Mitchell Airport.

 

I'm going to be intrigued to see what we get, this storm seems to be passing through without the hype or conversation of the last couple of storms - I don't know if it's the difference in being under and Advisory versus a Warning, but I wonder if this is going to catch a few people off guard.