July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Front Ranger]

I find it interesting that the word "normal" is so pervasive in weather discussions when it seems like "average" is what everyone is getting at? Shouldn't "normal" be defined as the range of temperatures/precipitation (I'm assuming it's some bell-curve looking thing) you can expect at a given location, which is what makes the "average"?

 

Sometimes July has greater than average cloud cover (this year), sometimes it has less than average cloud cover, that's what makes the average. But it's normal to have that range of cloud cover?

Yep, good reminder. Most months are not going to be "average", they'll end up within a range that is normal. Shorter periods of 1-2 weeks are likely to deviate even more from what is average.

 

Most summers in the PNW have a period that is much cloudier than average. That is normal. It would not be normal if that period lasted most of the summer (see 2010).

[Jesse]

BREAKING NEWS

 

Yup. Here's another FRONT PAGE HEADLINE. Someone like that who spends an inordinate amount of time on a weather forum with other weather weenies should expect to catch some flack for their bs from time to time without having to resort to seeking legal counsel. Although on the other hand it just MIGHT be completely 100% everyone else's fault.

[TT-SEA]

Yep, good reminder. Most months are not going to be "average", they'll end up within a range that is normal. Shorter periods of 1-2 weeks are likely to deviate even more from what is average.

 

Most summers in the PNW have a period that is much cloudier than average. That is normal. It would not be normal if that period lasted most of the summer (see 2010).

 

 

It is good perspective in that sense.   Always have to remember that nature is balancing things out over the long term and not necessarily over short periods.

 

That being said... 2010 is look better and better all the time.   At least from the middle of June onward.  I have gone through every day of that summer and the June 15-July 15 period was way better than this year.    We will see what happens next.

[TT-SEA]

Big improvements on the 12Z ECMWF for the middle of next week compared to its 00Z run.

 

Surface maps show Tuesday-Thursday being sunnier and warmer than the 00Z run.   

 

That trough coming down from Alaska is looking much more robust... which helps pull the troughing a little more westward than previous runs.

[Deweydog]

Yup. Here's another FRONT PAGE HEADLINE. Someone like that who spends an inordinate amount of time on a weather forum with other weather weenies should expect to catch some flack for their bs from time to time, although it just MIGHT be completely 100% everyone else's fault.

Yeah, it’s just from time to time...

 

He’d come off as lot more obsessive if people didn’t obsess quite so much over his obsession. Phil may actually relocate here just to spite him.

[Jesse]

Yeah, it’s just from time to time...

 

He’d come off as lot more obsessive if people didn’t obsess quite so much over his obsession. Phil may actually relocate here just to spite him.

 

Definitely all our faults. 

[Deweydog]

Definitely all our faults.

Just an observation.

[Jesse]

Just an observation.

 

Yeah. Someone who makes ~70% of the day the day posts on this forum/injects their opinion into nearly every discussion should reasonably expect to live a life of peace and privacy here. Poor fella.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, it’s just from time to time...

 

He’d come off as lot more obsessive if people didn’t obsess quite so much over his obsession. Phil may actually relocate here just to spite him.

 

 

I think people obsessing over me making observations about the current weather makes it much worse and drags out basic observations (e.g. its been unusually cloudy and I don't like it too much) to many more pages than necessary.   Because I will respond every time.   Which I guess is also an obsession!

 

Fact is... it has been cloudier than normal and I don't like it too much.   Nothing has changed.   That is the reality.   Sometimes the weather deviates from normal in ways we don't like.   Sh*t happens.    I will post about it all though... whether I like what is happening or not.  

[Jesse]

BIG IMPROVEMENTS for next weekend on the 12z Euro.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah. Someone who makes ~70% of the day the day posts on this forum/injects their opinion into nearly every discussion should reasonably expect to live a life of peace and privacy here. Poor fella.

 

 

I have gone out of way to understand your point of view and recognize it.     You act like I am on here attacking you for enjoying this summer because I have not really enjoyed it.   Not true at all.    I understand completely why you enjoy it.   

[Deweydog]

Yeah. Someone who makes ~70% of the day the day posts on this forum/injects their opinion into nearly every discussion should reasonably expect to live a life of peace and privacy here. Poor fella.

True. Nothing knocks down a good fire quite like gasoline.

[Jesse]

True. Nothing knocks down a good fire quite like gasoline.

 

Is that what you're trying to throw on me right now?

 

Also you can drop the stern/concerned act, even though that is what your client needs from you at the moment. I know as a fact you find gasoline fires to be pretty d**n entertaining.

[Jesse]

I have gone out of way to understand your point of view and recognize it.     You act like I am on here attacking you for enjoying this summer because I have not really enjoyed it.   Not true at all.    I understand completely why you enjoy it.   

 

Lip service to garner sympathy since mother nature has put you at a disadvantage this year. I remember when your only concern was the smoke from our wildfires drifting over your idyllic backyard...

[Front Ranger]

How close are they on 1944-present?

 

Eerily close to normal.

 

MUCH wetter than normal for the past week, though!!!

[TT-SEA]

BIG IMPROVEMENTS for next weekend on the 12z Euro.

 

Looks really nice.    More stable pattern... rather than heat spikes and marine pushes.     Looks like an extended period of 76-82 degrees and mostly sunny up here.   

 

At this point... a novelty heat wave is low on my list.    

[Front Ranger]

I think people obsessing over me making observations about the current weather makes it much worse and drags out basic observations (e.g. its been unusually cloudy and I don't like it too much) to many more pages than necessary.   Because I will respond every time.   Which I guess is also an obsession!

 

Fact is... it has been cloudier than normal and I don't like it too much.   Nothing has changed.   That is the reality.   Sometimes the weather deviates from normal in ways we don't like.   Sh*t happens.    I will post about it all though... whether I like what is happening or not.  

 

It was fair to point out that you like to cherry-pick stats sometimes, though. And also that the "cloudy" stats for SEA are quite dubious.

[TT-SEA]

Lip service to garner sympathy since mother nature has put you at a disadvantage this year. I remember when your only concern was the smoke from our wildfires drifting over your idyllic backyard...

 

 

 

You remember one flippant comment... but ignore the reality that I completely understand why you have enjoyed this summer and have said it many times?

 

I would be more likely to pay lip service when things are in my favor.    You would think I would be angrily attacking you every day this summer with the picture you paint.    But I am not.   Far from it.  

[Front Ranger]

Looks really nice.    More stable pattern... rather than heat spikes and marine pushes.     Looks like an extended period of 76-82 degrees and mostly sunny up here.   

 

At this point... a novelty heat wave is low on my list.    

 

That already happened last month, anyway. Very close to the brightest, longest day of the year, too.

[TT-SEA]

I would like place an order for the 12Z ECMWF... heavenly for the entire run.   

[Jesse]

 

You remember one flippant comment... but ignore the reality that I completely understand why you have enjoyed this summer and have said it many times?

 

I would be more likely to pay lip service when things are in my favor. You would think I would be angrily attacking you every day this summer with the picture you paint. But I am not. Far from it.

Nah, the past few years have shown me your true colors. Lying about PMs, sadistically rubbing in the heat of the last several summers at every turn, downplaying wildfire and drought. My opinion of you as a person has dropped substantially. Is what it is.

[TT-SEA]

That already happened last month, anyway. Very close to the brightest, longest day of the year, too.

 

That was nice and I remember thinking that at the time. 

 

I also did not think it would be cloudy for the next month... but here we are.  

 

Jim said at the time that heat spike might be the peak of summer and I remember thinking he will probably end up right though cautioned that it was early.     He made a similar bold call at the start of February that I doubted and was proved wrong. 

[TT-SEA]

Nah, the past few years have shown me your true colors. Lying about PMs, sadistically rubbing in the heat of the last several summers at every turn, downplaying wildfire and drought. My opinion of you as a person has dropped substantially. Is what it is.

 

The PM stuff was in response to some ridiculous attacks by you... and were based on things you have done in the past.

 

You always assume the worst though... always have and it will never change.     My intentions are much less malicious than you believe.    But it is what it is.

[Jesse]

You always assume the worst though... always have and it will never change. My intentions are much less malicious than you believe. But it is what it is.

Guess we’ll just have to disagree to disagree!

[TT-SEA]

Side note... the sun is shining here!

 

I was told that it never shines here ever. This is strange indeed.

[BLI snowman]

Some partial clouds are back here. Like the darkest, most eternal winter day you've ever known...

 

#lifeisameaninglessvatofemptiness

[Omegaraptor]

70 at PDX. DP 44, which I haven’t seen in a while.

 

Goodbye humidity!

[TT-SEA]

70 at PDX. DP 44, which I haven’t seen in a while.

 

Goodbye humidity!

Amen to that.

 

The humidity has likely been a big factor in the lack of sun up here.

[Jesse]

70 at PDX. DP 44, which I haven’t seen in a while.

 

Goodbye humidity!

 

Yeah, I was going to mention that. Feels nice.

 

As it stands right now PDX is on track to have their warmest average low on record, for any month. Some nights in the 50s the next few days should temper that, but 60 degree lows are likely to return next week.

[Front Ranger]

Side note... the sun is shining here!

 

I was told that it never shines here ever. This is strange indeed.

 

I was told that rain/clouds in July means fall has arrived.

[Omegaraptor]

PSA: We still have all of August and September to go.

[Jesse]

PSA: We still have all of August and September to go.

 

September is part of meteorological autumn.

[Deweydog]

At any rate, how ‘bout that GLAAM?

[Jesse]

At any rate, how ‘bout that GLAAM?

Duck and dodge was probably the best approach. Good instincts.

[Deweydog]

Duck and dodge was probably the best approach. Good instincts.

You’re the only one with the guts to tackle the tough issues, Geraldo.

[Jesse]

You’re the only one with the guts to tackle the tough issues, Geraldo.

Alls I know is there’s problems here and the problem with it is that people have a problem with the guy causing problems. And to me, that’s a problem.

[Front Ranger]

September is part of meteorological autumn.

 

Hey, here's a fun debate we haven't touched on in awhile!

[Jesse]

Hey, here's a fun debate we haven't touched on in awhile!

Who actually designates themselves the voice of reason? Weird...

[Deweydog]

Alls I know is there’s problems here and the problem with it is that people have a problem with the guy causing problems. And to me, that’s a problem.

If there was a problem, yo I’ll solve it. Check out the hook while my DJ (droppin’) revolves it.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Boat is currently under my carport at home waiting for me to diagnose a shifter linkage issue. But we could all try to squeeze onto my jetski, it’s at the lake house and ready to go!

That'll do! As long as I'm in the middle!