July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Front Ranger]

Sure did get cloudy in Lower Manhattan that day...

 

Jelly!!!

 

Just a little taste of the daily horrors of living in North Bend.

[Front Ranger]

But what does a larger GOA trough indicate in the long run as that CCKW crosses the Pacific and divergence establishes more profusely in the IO/Africa sector?

 

The more I analyze the mean system state, the more it seems these long range heat spikes are false flags and inevitably get taken away as time closes.

 

 

I don't think this means what you think it means. 

[TT-SEA]

Just a little taste of the daily horrors of living in North Bend.

 

 

Its pure evil to love those 50% of the days that are nice here.   That is half of our climate normally!   

 

Mother Nature is just being b*tch with her timing right now.    I value summer over all other seasons.    One extreme to the other.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Encouraging to see 1985 and 1995 brought up. They were both Niña winters though, if I’m correct.

 

On the other hand, discouraging to see 2002 brought up.

We are due for a dud here.

[Front Ranger]

Encouraging to see 1985 and 1995 brought up. They were both Niña winters though, if I’m correct.

 

On the other hand, discouraging to see 2002 brought up.

 

2002 is a horrible match in just about every other way. Moderate Nino, sky high solar, etc.

 

As far as solar goes, you're not really going to find many good matches to this year without going back 100+ years.

[TT-SEA]

2002 is a horrible match in just about every other way. Moderate Nino, sky high solar, etc.

 

As far as solar goes, you're not really going to find many good matches to this year without going back 100+ years.

 

 

Deck is stacked in our favor big time this winter.   I hope nature unloads the arctic air and snow in December this time.

[Front Ranger]

We are due for a dud here.

 

Time to make this your sig.

[Phil]

Now Phil just needs to like the post since he will realize I am actually subtly lending him support by framing things that way and the cycle will be complete.

Done.

[Phil]

 

I don't think this means what you think it means.

I know what a false flag is. I play chess.

 

Bad terminology though. I used it in reference to modulations of the ET wavetrain that are, in structure, homogenous to those expected under given boundary conditions but deviant enough to prevent/invert phase changes to biased states (IE phase changes that are present but masked in their modeled states).

[Phil]

Re: Tim’s jet stream. Poleward +AAM propagation.

 

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS took a big step towards the ECMWF.

 

I want to see some normal consistent mid-summer sun here so badly... I am compelled to look to the 18Z GFS for additional data.  

[Phil]

I put arrows to highlight it.

 

[TT-SEA]

Re: Tim’s jet stream. Poleward +AAM propagation.

 

 

 

Now it's my jet stream!  

 

I did not take ownership.   I just saw some really interesting posts about it this morning from people much smarter than me.

[Guest CulverJosh]

74 degrees in Bend at 330 pm on July 18th. Im in love.

[TT-SEA]

74 degrees in Bend at 330 pm on July 18th. Im in love.

 

 

That sounds lovely.  

[Guest CulverJosh]

Check that. 73.

[Phil]

Note the deposit of easterly momentum following the westerlies in the tropics. That should propagate poleward according to guidance, hence the intraseasonal slowing of the NPAC jet coming up (and a happier Tim)?

 

Doesn’t mean ridgy/troughy, just slower flow under a more ULLish pattern perhaps?

[Guest CulverJosh]

Now 72..lol. Winds are being Chinook-y.

[TT-SEA]

Now 72..lol. Winds are being Chinook-y.

 

 

All you need is this very normal pattern to be happy in July!     You can tell by the anomaly maps that is typical for this time of year.  

 

 

 

[Phil]

The 18z GFS is a gorgeous example of a retrograding wavetrain.

 

Watch the anticyclone retrograde from the Eastern US to just off the West Coast, and the trough retrograde from the West Coast to the Aleutians.

 

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

The 18z GFS is a gorgeous example of a retrograding wavetrain.

 

Watch the anticyclone retrograde from the Eastern US to just off the West Coast, and the trough retrograde from the West Coast to the Aleutians.

 

 

 

I have been watching this happen on the EPS maps in this period for the last 10 days.   I mentioned that it seemed like retrogression was being driven by something bigger than what was happening with the GOA troughs because no matter what the models showed up there... the ridge still ended up migrating westward across the country in the same timeframe.

[Guest CulverJosh]

I have been watching this happen on the EPS maps in this period for the last 10 days. I mentioned that it seemed like retrogression was being driven by something bigger than what was happening with the GOA troughs because no matter what the models showed up there... the ridge still ended up migrating westward across the country.

Not a good lake effect snow maker if this pattern continues for the great lakes but could score some good stuff for us.

[Phil]

I have been watching this happen on the EPS maps in this period for the last 10 days. I mentioned that it seemed like retrogression was being driven by something bigger than what was happening with the GOA troughs because no matter what the models showed up there... the ridge still ended up migrating westward across the country in the same timeframe.

Yeah, momentum loss at the ideal latitude(s) in conjunction with the CCKW crossing the Pacific. It’s not a long lasting ridge since it inevitably retrogrades offshore but there’s no blasting jet in its wake either.

 

It could theoretically sustain longer if there’s any constructive interference between the CCKW and residual low pass tendencies over the EPAC, but that’s super hard to do with such high frequency waves.

[Front Ranger]

After barely squeaking in their fourth high in the 60s this month yesterday, SEA is well into the 70s today and probably won't see another sub-70 high for quite awhile.

[High Desert Mat?]

I say we all just say that 10% sunny for the past month is what it has been. I know it’s only sunny at my place in Redmond only about 9% of the time anyways and has been less than that in the last month or so. Maybe he’ll find something to else to rant on? Maybe not. But I for one am tired of this relentless cloud cover over here and I want everyone to know. Can you guys help me please? Move the clouds some place else!!!!!!!!

[TT-SEA]

I say we all just say that 10% sunny for the past month is what it has been. I know it’s only sunny at my place in Redmond only about 9% of the time anyways and has been less than that in the last month or so. Maybe he’ll find something to else to rant on? Maybe not. But I for one am tired of this relentless cloud cover over here and I want everyone to know. Can you guys help me please? Move the clouds some place else!!!!!!!!

 

Reporting what is happening is tiny portion of this and I do that all the time (good or bad)... the rest is people telling me that what is happening is not actually happening or that I just don't understand that 10% is perfectly normal and soon it will be 0% for many years to come!    And of course I will respond to all the naysayers individually.   So here we are.   

[TT-SEA]

Tim has had a valid point over the past 5 pages (re: cloud cover). The problem is he beats the already-dead horse about 436 times more than he needs to.

 

This, in turn, leads to everyone continuing to harp on him, which leads him to defend himself, which then circles back to beating the same dead horse.

 

A vicious cycle, I tell you.

 

 

We literally just said the same thing at the same time.   

[Front Ranger]

Tim has had a valid point over the past 5 pages (re: cloud cover). The problem is he beats the already-dead horse about 436 times more than he needs to.

 

This, in turn, leads to everyone continuing to harp on him, which leads him to defend himself, which then circles back to beating the same dead horse.

 

A vicious cycle, I tell you.

Other valid points have been made in response to some of the "facts" he cited, though.

 

No one has been disputing his claim that's it's been cloudier than average the past few weeks.

[Jesse]

Other valid points have been made in response to some of the "facts" he cited, though.

 

 

Yeah but Hawks agrees with Tim’s opinion, so he’ll ignore those. Weird how that works...

[TT-SEA]

Other valid points have been made in response to some of the "facts" he cited, though.

 

No one has been disputing his claim that's it's been cloudier than average the past few weeks.

 

 

Except Phil.

 

I guess normal here is 0% sun in the summer.   The 10% we have had is just a small blessing from God.   And the great darkness is coming for the next decade.   And I must leave now because 10% is sort of annoying me and this is an incredible summer.   How dare I dream of the normal 50%.   

[Jesse]

Except Phil.

 

I guess normal here is 0% sun in the summer. The 10% we have had is just a small blessing from God. And the great darkness is coming for the next decade. And I must leave now because 10% is sort of annoying me and this is an incredible summer. How dare I dream of the normal 50%.

Most of Phil’s arguments against you are completely retarded, I will give you that. Waters down the message of those who actually make good points, like me.

[TT-SEA]

Most of Phil’s arguments against you are completely retarded, I will give you that. Waters down the message of those who actually make good points, like me.

 

 

I actually agree with you here.

 

And I do take your points much more seriously.

[Jesse]

I actually agree with you here.

 

And I do take your points much more seriously.

Now you’re just trying to butter me up.

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like Portland might have a shot at 90ºF Sunday. It would be the first time since June 12.

[Jesse]

Looks like Portland might have a shot at 90ºF Sunday. It would be the first time since June 12.

Hopefully we just miss it.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

78F and beautiful in downtown Springfield.

[Jesse]

[Frontal Snowsquall]