July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Front Ranger]

Its the GFS MOS so take it with a grain of salt.

 

Point is... it will end up being way nicer than it appeared last weekend.

 

ANOTHER nice weekend. 

[MossMan]

Even toasty SEA had a high of just 95 that day. Your truck was clearly being silly.

This was as we drove past Mountlake Terrace...that was the hot zone!

[Jesse]

12z GFS does look pretty nice overall. We avoid any big time heat for the next 7-10 days which gets us past the mid-point of the heart of summer.

 

12z GFS ensembles still suggest the possibility of a cool down in the long range as well.

[Phil]

The numbers simply don't add up at SEA. None of the last 5 summers, which were generally quite sunny, have had a month with less than 40% cloud cover, yet the long term average is 35%...so you believe the last 5 summers have been cloudier than average?

 

You can believe that 80% number in Maple Valley all you want because you emotionally feel that way, and it may or may not be true for this month, but looking at SEA's cloud cover numbers from a scientific perspective, they are dubious at best.

Perhaps this interpretation is borne out of hubris, but I think when you and I agree on something, it’s (usually) the correct interpretation.

 

No way in hell have the last 5 summers been cloudier than average @ SEA. None of the satellite or ground based analyses (with consistent instrumentation) suggest this to be the case.

[Jesse]

[Phil]

It was not directed at you... it was directed at Phil's extreme trolling. Take it as tongue-in-cheek.

 

And a couple weeks is one thing... a month is sort of unusual. Oh well.

My sarcastic trolling isn’t meant to be taken literally.

 

I don’t mind being the metaphorical punching bag, but I hope you realize this.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Jesse]

[Phil]

12z GFS does look pretty nice overall. We avoid any big time heat for the next 7-10 days which gets us past the mid-point of the heart of summer.

 

12z GFS ensembles still suggest the possibility of a cool down in the long range as well.

It actually has the mean trough axis over the PNW region most of the run with a retrograding wavestation (more important than the thermals at this range, for those wondering if the heat will evaporate upon approach again).

 

That warm shot during the retrogression is legit, but it only lasts as long as the anticyclonic axis is over your longitude..when it retrogrades offshore that source is gone, irrespective of run to run waffling.

 

No sign of a sustained warm pattern yet (“yet” being the key word).

[Jesse]

No sign of a sustained warm pattern yet (“yet” being the key word).

So you are expecting a sustained warm pattern at some point? Or is this just more doublespeak to cover your a**?

 

I remember reading some gobbledygook from you about a cool August just a week or so ago.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Jesse]

It's been hotter than normal down there.

Whatever makes you screech.

[Deweydog]

I’d never think in a million years that a frontal snow squall would be Jesse’s preference nemesis.

[Jesse]

I’d never think in a million years that a frontal snow squall would be Jesse’s preference nemesis.

 

You know I can't stand anyone who constantly peddles misinformation.

 

Our preferences line up great in the winter, but I will still call him out on his wishcasting, questionable use of historical data and shoddy model interpretation then too.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Whatever makes you screech.

Just stating facts.

[GHweatherChris]

Just stating facts.

Tim has trademarked this phrase as one of the ones he uses to hide his stress level.

[Jesse]

Just stating facts.

 

If you think an average high of 68.4 degrees is hot you are living in the wrong climate. Juneau might be a good place for you to relocate.

[Jesse]

Tim has trademarked this phrase as one of the ones he uses to hide his stress level.

 

That actually made me laugh out loud.

[TT-SEA]

There is daylight!

 

Exactly the same as every other day of my life!

 

Nothing else is different. Every day is exactly the same.

[Jesse]

There is daylight!

 

Exactly the same as every other day of my life!

 

Nothing else is different. Every day is exactly the same.

https://youtu.be/-Aj9_8t1eQc

[Omegaraptor]

I wonder if next winter will have any 48°F drizzle events. A lot of epic winters had 48°F drizzle events.

 

In fact, even 1949-50 had some 48°F drizzle events. 68-69, 85-86, 08-09, 13-14, and 16-17 also had several 48°F drizzle events.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

If you think an average high of 68.4 degrees is hot you are living in the wrong climate. Juneau might be a good place for you to relocate.

Never said that. Once again your twisting people's words around to fit your narrative. It's been hotter than normal on the Southern Oregon Coast, that doesn't mean it's actually been "hot" there.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Beautiful day so far. About to head out for lunch. Hoping everybody can enjoy the sunshine!

[Jesse]

Never said that. Once again your twisting people's words around to fit your narrative. It's been hotter than normal on the Southern Oregon Coast, that doesn't mean it's actually been "hot" there.

This is purely semantics, but it seems like the phrase “hotter than normal” is usually reserved for when it’s actually been hot. Warmer than normal or milder than normal is probably more fitting in this case.

[Jesse]

12z Euro seems to be backing off on the hot solution for next weekend compared to the 00z run.

[TT-SEA]

12z Euro seems to be backing off on the hot solution for next weekend compared to the 00z run.

 

 

Might end up being a pattern that everyone likes... severe pleasantness.   

[Jesse]

Might end up being a pattern that everyone likes... severe pleasantness.

Yeah. I don’t think Portland hits 90 once on this run which is fantastic for late July.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah. I don’t think Portland hits 90 once on this run which is fantastic for late July.

 

 

12Z ECMWF peaks at 89 on Friday there.

 

The entire run is basically mid 70s to low 80s in Seattle with sun every day.

[Jesse]

[Jesse]

https://youtu.be/dTAAsCNK7RA

[Omegaraptor]

I really wish that NWS stations would start recording sunshine hours again.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Beautiful in the s valley. Not a cloud in the sky.

[Front Ranger]

So you are expecting a sustained warm pattern at some point? Or is this just more doublespeak to cover your a**?

 

I remember reading some gobbledygook from you about a cool August just a week or so ago.

 

In June, there was definitely talk of a hot pattern developing by this point.

[High Desert Mat?]

Anyone know where I can buy a bottle of sunshine? Still cloudy with low clouds and cirrus clouds to boot. Just waiting on the fog now so we can have nuclear winter. Ugh, I’m so depressed now.

[Jesse]

In June, there was definitely talk of a hot pattern developing by this point.

Phil has definitely done well calling for a near to above average summer temperature wise with greater moisture availability than recent years. But I have found his outlook on the timing of hot patterns in particular to be hard to follow and ever changing. Not that attempting to nail them down months to weeks in advance as he is should be easy or anything.

[seattleweatherguy]

Phil does a great job predicting patterns with the tools he is given and his experience. No one is perfect as Mother Nature does throw curve balls when she wants to

[Front Ranger]

Phil has definitely done well calling for a near to above average summer temperature wise with greater moisture availability than recent years. But I have found his outlook on the timing of hot patterns in particular to be hard to follow and ever changing. Not that attempting to nail them down months to weeks in advance as he is should be easy or anything.

 

He has, though he was certainly not the only one and he has not been the closest so far.

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2045-summer-forecast-contest-2019/

 

And yes, he says a lot of stuff and it's impossible to follow it all. Some of it works out, some doesn't, as would be expected.

[Jesse]

He has, though he was certainly not the only one and he has not been the closest so far.

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2045-summer-forecast-contest-2019/

 

And yes, he says a lot of stuff and it's impossible to follow it all. Some of it works out, some doesn't, as would be expected.

Yeah but he is definitely a better long range forecaster than you or me, so there’s that.

[Deweydog]

Yeah but he is definitely a better long range forecaster than you or me, so there’s that.

This will not end well...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 80F in downtown Springfield