July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

12z GFS runs a full-on Pacific storm into BC in the 7-10 day range.

 

At this point, September through November are probably going to be nonstop ridging.

There is a trough but NO storm. There is a difference

[Phil]

There is a trough but NO storm. There is a difference

Boooo.

[ShawniganLake]

Boooo.

What days are you going fishing?

[Phil]

What days are you going fishing?

7/31 to 8/3..maybe the afternoon of 7/30 too.

 

Will be in Everett evening of 7/26 to 7/28, traveling to BC on 7/29, then to the island on 7/30. Back in Seattle 8/4, but have to take a redeye flight out at 11pm. Can’t stay as long this year due to financial limitations.

[ShawniganLake]

YEAH BABY! WOOHOO!

 

I’m legit excited to be out fishing in that.

You’re probably one of the few people who would drop $5000 Cdn for 3 days of fishing and hope the weather is stormy.

[Phil]

You’re probably one of the few people who would drop $5000 Cdn for 3 days of fishing and hope the weather is stormy.

Well, we’re sharing the cost. And lol, my entire family (save one) thinks I’m insane. Lots of Tim-clones.

[Omegaraptor]

I have a very good feeling about this upcoming winter. The CFS has consistently been hinting at a large scale pattern of gulf of Aleutian ridge and pnw-Nunavut trough, from November off and on through March. With the sun as quiet as it is I’m am sure that many of us will see at least a few goodies this winter

Personally hoping that the entire Portland area gets a massive 24” blizzard on Christmas Eve while all of Puget Sound as well as the southern Willamette Valley gets 33°F rain.

[ShawniganLake]

Well, we’re sharing the cost. And lol, my entire family (save one) thinks I’m insane. Lots of Tim-clones.

Which resort are you going to? Aren’t they typically billed out per person. A lot of those fishing resorts are 3500-6500 all inclusive.

[ShawniganLake]

Personally hoping that the entire Portland area gets a massive 24” blizzard on Christmas Eve while all of Puget Sound as well as the southern Willamette Valley gets 33°F rain.

Seems likely. Portland gets a lot of blizzards while it’s raining from Seattle to Bellingham.

[Phil]

Which resort are you going to? Aren’t they typically billed out per person. A lot of those fishing resorts are 3500-6500 all inclusive.

Unique situation because we were already booked for Hippa Island Lodge but it broke off the tug pulling it sometime last winter (I think?) and was damaged, so we were moved to a smaller lodge and less of the party could attend.

[Jesse]

Phil has never set foot west of the Mississippi. Come at me bruh.

[Omegaraptor]

I honestly can’t wait to see how much complaining (in all seasons) we’re going to get from locals and Tim alike when we inevitably switch back to a cool pattern akin to 2007-2012.

 

Deep solar minimum, no more Greenland/Baffin vortex, many of the atmospheric patterns causing warmth and dryness are switching or have switched. The rubber band is going to snap sooner rather than later.

 

We haven’t had a cool spring since 2011 or 2012, so that will be a major shock. December/January have been mostly torching in recent years sans 2016-17 so a real winter will probably be a shock for many people in this region as well. Not to mention that the last two years have been mostly dry in all seasons, so it’s going to be interesting when we go into a wetter pattern.

[Phil]

Phil has never set foot west of the Mississippi. Come at me bruh.

I’ll take a video and give you a shout-out.

 

Any additional requests, bruh?

[ShawniganLake]

I honestly can’t wait to see how much complaining (in all seasons) we’re going to get from locals and Tim alike when we inevitably switch back to a cool pattern akin to 2007-2012.

 

Deep solar minimum, no more Greenland/Baffin vortex, many of the atmospheric patterns causing warmth and dryness are switching or have switched. The rubber band is going to snap sooner rather than later.

 

We haven’t had a cool spring since 2011 or 2012, so that will be a major shock. December/January have been mostly torching in recent years sans 2016-17 so a real winter will probably be a shock for many people in this region as well. Not to mention that the last two years have been mostly dry in all seasons, so it’s going to be interesting when we go into a wetter pattern.

January has been torching for a lot more than just the recent years.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I honestly can’t wait to see how much complaining (in all seasons) we’re going to get from locals and Tim alike when we inevitably switch back to a cool pattern akin to 2007-2012.

 

Deep solar minimum, no more Greenland/Baffin vortex, many of the atmospheric patterns causing warmth and dryness are switching or have switched. The rubber band is going to snap sooner rather than later.

 

We haven’t had a cool spring since 2011 or 2012, so that will be a major shock. December/January have been mostly torching in recent years sans 2016-17 so a real winter will probably be a shock for many people in this region as well. Not to mention that the last two years have been mostly dry in all seasons, so it’s going to be interesting when we go into a wetter pattern.

 

Pretty sure the rubber band snapped in Feb.  You're going to get nailed sooner rather than later.  Rooting for you and for MFR-YVR to get a regional bomb at some point just like we had Feb 25-27. Would be awesome to see what an event like that would be like in Dec-Jan again.

[ShawniganLake]

Unique situation because we were already booked for Hippa Island Lodge but it broke off the tug pulling it sometime last winter (I think?) and was damaged, so we were moved to a smaller lodge and less of the party could attend.

Englefield Bay? That was Hippa Island lodges sister resort. Both owned by the same company.

[Omegaraptor]

January has been torching for a lot more than just the recent years.

 

Notice which month rose the sharpest from 71-00 to 81-10 normals?

[Phil]

I honestly can’t wait to see how much complaining (in all seasons) we’re going to get from locals and Tim alike when we inevitably switch back to a cool pattern akin to 2007-2012.

 

Deep solar minimum, no more Greenland/Baffin vortex, many of the atmospheric patterns causing warmth and dryness are switching or have switched. The rubber band is going to snap sooner rather than later.

 

We haven’t had a cool spring since 2011 or 2012, so that will be a major shock. December/January have been mostly torching in recent years sans 2016-17 so a real winter will probably be a shock for many people in this region as well. Not to mention that the last two years have been mostly dry in all seasons, so it’s going to be interesting when we go into a wetter pattern.

If that Greenland/Baffin vortex and +TNH pattern is actually gone, then the +PMM/+PDO is going to be ripped apart too because they exist through the same RWB structure.

 

Need to see if it returns this winter, but that would be atypical of solar minimum. It might really have flipped this time. It’s about time, after a relentless, stagnant, unchanging low-pass wave structure for over a half-decade.

[TT-SEA]

I honestly can’t wait to see how much complaining (in all seasons) we’re going to get from locals and Tim alike when we inevitably switch back to a cool pattern akin to 2007-2012.

 

 

The last month was about the lack of sun. Want to know why its being repeated? Because of posts like this.

 

Its not about the temperatures. It has been close to normal temperatures with almost no sun. Colder would have sunnier and more enjoyable.

• 2009 was awesome.
• 2010 looks like sunny dream compared to the last month.
• 2011 was great from July - Sept
• My favorite summer period ever here was July - September 2012.

But keep telling me how much worse it will be. No sun is no sun. Can't go negative.

 

And I will have to repeat this again in a week when you say this past month has been awesome compared to what is coming.

[ShawniganLake]

Hey Tim

 

Do you have any euro precip maps for the B.C. cariboo next weekend.

[TT-SEA]

Hey Tim

 

Do you have any euro precip maps for the B.C. cariboo next weekend.

Give me a minute... have to go back to computer.

[TT-SEA]

Friday through Monday...

 

[Phil]

Phil has never set foot west of the Mississippi. Come at me bruh.

I’ll take a video and give you a shout-out.

 

Any additional requests, bruh?

So, I’ll take that as a no?

 

Honestly if you’re anywhere nearby I’d be down to meet up somewhere.

[Omegaraptor]

The last month was about the lack of sun. Want to know why its being repeated? Because of posts like this.

Its not about the temperatures. It has been close to normal temperatures with almost no sun. Colder would have sunnier and more enjoyable.

• 2009 was awesome.
• 2010 looks like sunny dream compared to the last month.
• 2011 was great from July - Sept
• My favorite summer period ever here was July - September 2012.

But keep telling me how much worse it will be. No sun is no sun. Can't go negative.

And I will have to repeat this again in a week when you say this past month has been awesome compared to what is coming.

I wasn’t just referring to this summer. I completely understand that this July is extremely cloudy for North Bend. I am not suggesting to prepare for cloudier ones, as this was a very unlucky pattern.

 

I’m referring to all seasons becoming cooler in general. Not too long ago, you complained yet again about the rain we had in April in an otherwise warm, sunny, and dry spring (even though, as you said, it was expected after a warm/dry end to March). Every spring since 2012 has been above average with the exception of maybe 2017. It’s going to be a real shock when we get a truly cool spring again.

 

The 2013-date period has been neutral on precipitation for most of the Northwest. Very real possibility this winter goes wet after two consecutive dry years.

[Requiem]

So, are you telling me that we could all freeze to death this winter?  <_>

[Deweydog]

[TT-SEA]

I wasn’t just referring to this summer. I completely understand that this July is extremely cloudy for North Bend. I am not suggesting to prepare for cloudier ones, as this was a very unlucky pattern.

 

I’m referring to all seasons becoming cooler in general. Not too long ago, you complained yet again about the rain we had in April in an otherwise warm, sunny, and dry spring (even though, as you said, it was expected after a warm/dry end to March). Every spring since 2012 has been above average with the exception of maybe 2017. It’s going to be a real shock when we get a truly cool spring again.

 

The 2013-date period has been neutral on precipitation for most of the Northwest. Very real possibility this winter goes wet after two consecutive dry years.

The 2014-2017 period was FAR from neutral here in terms of precip. You want to talk about our specific experience up here then keep you references straight.

 

And stop worrying about everyone else.

[Phil]

I’m leaning towards 2021/22 - 2024/25 being very cool/wet in the PNW under heavy La Niña/-PNA/-WPO influence.

 

I originally thought 2019/20 would be the clean El Niño and 2020/21 would initiate the La Niña cycle, but since we failed to cleanly transition into the El Niño this year, and the ongoing east-based ENSO cooling and current SIOD/IPWP state is not the typical system behavior ahead of a flip to multiyear -ENSO, this winter probably won’t begin the ENSO flip.

 

I’d say there’s a good chance I was a year off, and 2020/21 is the clean El Niño (but not a return to a raging +PMM/+NAO/solar max type niño..more like a canonical 2006/07, 2009/10 type event or perhaps an EP event like 1997/98). Then the multiyear event follows as solar minimum closes out.

[TT-SEA]

2017 had the wettest April ever here.

 

April 2018 was in top ten.

 

We know what its like to have lots of rain in the spring.

[Omegaraptor]

The 2014-2017 period was FAR from neutral here in terms of precip. You want to talk about our specific experience up here then keep you references straight.

 

And stop worrying about everyone else.

 

If you think of 2014 and 2015 as making up for the dry 2013, and May 2017 to now as making up for the wet period from 2016 to April 2017, then it all makes sense. Here's PDX data:

 

2013-2015

 

 

2016-date

 

 

SEA is wetter, but it's the wettest part of Puget Sound relative to normal and Olympia/Bellingham are not too far above normal for the 2013-19 period.

 

Overall, the 2013-date period is not wet considering the entire PNW region.

[TT-SEA]

Factor in 2013... and SEA is still 20+ inches above normal since. Don't talk about our perceptions and then use PDX data.

 

Or maybe stop the fear mongering BS and focus on your own perceptions of the weather and not everyone else.

[High Desert Mat?]

[Anti Marine Layer]

95 with a DP of 110 at some mid Atlantic spot today.

Fu*k you, Sistek.

Dewpoint cannot be higher than temperature.

[Phil]

[Omegaraptor]

Factor in 2013... and SEA is still 20+ inches above normal since. Don't talk about our perceptions and then use PDX data.

 

Or maybe stop the fear mongering BS and focus on your own perceptions of the weather and not everyone else.

 

Where is the fear mongering? All I said is that we are due for a cool period after 6 years of warmth and it's not going to be easy to get used to initially. I doubt upcoming summers will be like the cloudfest we've seen in Puget Sound this summer, but they probably won't be 2014-18 level "60 days without a drop of rain" sunny either.

 

It's not like I'm screaming about an imminent Maunder Minimum repeat or that we're going to enter another Little Ice Age.

[TT-SEA]

Dewpoint cannot be higher than temperature.

Sarcasm.

[Requiem]

[TT-SEA]

Where is the fear mongering? All I said is that we are due for a cool period after 6 years of warmth and it's not going to be easy to get used to initially. I doubt upcoming summers will be like the cloudfest we've seen in Puget Sound this summer, but they probably won't be 2014-18 level "60 days without a drop of rain" sunny either.

 

It's not like I'm screaming about an imminent Maunder Minimum repeat or that we're going to enter another Little Ice Age.

Great.

 

None of us know what will happen. But you seemed to be focused on my perceptions years in the future. Stupid. Worry about yourself. We can always travel... and we might even have a place in Hawaii by then. Time will tell!

[MossMan]

Currently 83 perfect degrees!

[Phil]

Great.

 

None of us know what will happen. But you seemed to be focused on my perceptions years in the future. Stupid. Worry about yourself. We can always travel... and we might even have a place in Hawaii by then. Time will tell!

Why Hawaii? Isn’t that sort of too much paradise?