July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Why Hawaii? Isn’t that sort of too much paradise?

Ahhhh... no.

 

Kauai is a slice of heaven on Earth. Can't be too much paradise.

[TT-SEA]

SEA is at 85.

 

Same here.

 

12Z ECMWF showed 82 for a high at SEA today. I am starting to really like the GFS ensemble mean temp maps. They seem to be right on target with no bias either way. It shows 89 at SEA today. It also accurately predicted the 73 at SEA on Friday in a chilly air mass. ECMWF had 67 that day.

[Front Ranger]

January has been torching for a lot more than just the recent years.

But then there's February.

[Front Ranger]

FFCA7763-D60E-43B5-AFAB-D4D92E9A0298.jpeg

 

Notice which month rose the sharpest from 71-00 to 81-10 normals?

December dropped, and was notably cooler than the 1921-80 period.

 

Not due!

[Deweydog]

But then there's February.

Followed by March?

 

Did I win?

[Front Ranger]

SEA is at 85.

 

Same here.

 

12Z ECMWF showed 82 for a high at SEA today. I am starting to really like the GFS ensemble mean temp maps. They seem to be right on target with no bias either way. It shows 89 at SEA today. It also accurately predicted the 73 at SEA on Friday in a chilly air mass. ECMWF had 67 that day.

Maybe the new GFS really was an upgrade.

[TT-SEA]

Maybe the new GFS really was an upgrade.

I never even knew the surface temp maps existed for the GFS ensemble mean until I accidentally clicked on one last week.

 

I will keep watching it... but it seems like the best guide available for temps.

[ShawniganLake]

But then there's February.

Yes. December and February are our more reliable winter months in recent decades.

[TT-SEA]

I was reminded by wife that a week ago today I said it would be wet and cool this weekend... and now its just about 90 degrees and sunny. I checked the 12Z ECMWF from last Sunday and I see why I made that prediction. It showed a trough and ULL right over us today with cold 850mb temps.

 

So its not always trending colder.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Front Ranger]

Yes. December and February are our more reliable winter months in recent decades.

Yeah, in terms of overall warming, winter actually hasn't suffered much outside of January. Which of course, is still a big deal because it's the month with by far the most potential historically.

[Front Ranger]

I was reminded by wife that a week ago today I said it would be wet and cool this weekend... and now its just about 90 degrees and sunny. I checked the 12Z ECMWF from last Sunday and I see why I made that prediction. It showed a trough and ULL right over us today with cold 850mb temps.

 

So its not always trending colder.

Weekends have fared pretty well.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I was reminded by wife that a week ago today I said it would be wet and cool this weekend... and now its just about 90 degrees and sunny. I checked the 12Z ECMWF from last Sunday and I see why I made that prediction. It showed a trough and ULL right over us today with cold 850mb temps.

 

So its not always trending colder.

Hot day for you guys up there. SEA officially hit 90.

[TT-SEA]

Weekends have fared pretty well.

 

3 out of the last 4 have been beautiful.   Ironic (and pleasant) side note to the month of generally cloudiness.   Although the big holiday weekend was the one that was not so nice in there.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yeah, in terms of overall warming, winter actually hasn't suffered much outside of January. Which of course, is still a big deal because it's the month with by far the most potential historically.

 

I'm struggling to remember any significant regional snow events in late January since I moved to Oregon in 1989.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Blizzard777]

88.3 here so far

Feels good

[Jesse]

[Jesse]

I’ll take a video and give you a shout-out.

 

Any additional requests, bruh?

I would love that actually. Please do. If you do it without a laundry list of excuses why it didn’t work out I will be legitimately impressed and you will have my apologies.

 

I like you, Phil. Your global climate knowledge is an asset to this forum and you are a fun personality to have here. But you can’t blame me for being skeptical given your history, and the fact that things never seem to quite add up regarding your annuals pilgrimages out here. Admittedly it could just be coincidental but a lot of it just doesn’t pass the smell test for me. I’d love to be proven wrong!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

88F at EUG and 89F in downtown Springfield. Nice warm day!

[Deweydog]

I leave for Maui on Wednesday. Anyone wanna get together while we’re there?

[Guest CulverJosh]

Biggest problem is Phil is 26, doesnt live here, and thinks he is smarter than he is. I laugh at him. So does Chris, so does Matt.

[Requiem]

Biggest problem is Phil is 26, doesnt live here, and thinks he is smarter than he is. I laugh at him. So does Chris, so does Matt.

Is there any particular reason you have nothing to contribute but petty remarks and sexual drivel?

[Jesse]

Biggest problem is Phil is 26, doesnt live here, and thinks he is smarter than he is. I laugh at him. So does Chris, so does Matt.

I wouldn’t be poking at anyone’s age, considering you are hands down the most immature regular poster here. We all laugh at you.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Deweydog]

Is there any particular reason you have nothing to contribute but petty remarks and sexual drivel?

East wind density.

[Jesse]

Yeah, I know. That's why I didn't say officially like with SEA.

 

Always great when both SEA and PDX can get into the 90s together.

Looks like they did it. Can I hear a SCREEECH!?!?

[TacomaWaWx]

Just got back into Tacoma from Oregon an hour ago. Hot day up here hit 87 for a high temp by and far the hottest day of the month and hottest day since we hit 91 on 6/12. This is also the first 80+ day since 6/12. Ends a 39 day streak here. Only the 3rd 80+ day of the summer.

[Tyler Mode]

I'm struggling to remember any significant regional snow events in late January since I moved to Oregon in 1989.

 

1996!!!  Ok, not sure if it was regional but we had 8" on the 27th that year, followed by single digits then flooding.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1996!!!  Ok, not sure if it was regional but we had 8" on the 27th that year, followed by single digits then flooding.

 

No snow here so not regional.

[Guest CulverJosh]

I wouldn’t be poking at anyone’s age, considering you are hands down the most immature regular poster here. We all laugh at you.

Pretty easy to push buttons with you guys. I saw the remarks a mile away. Maybe you should develop thicker skin.

[Requiem]

I am actually an immature jackass and I apologize for being the least contributing member on this site, I'm also pretty bigoted and probably smell like a Newark landfill.

 

Right on!

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like we had a morning low of 49 here yesterday while I was gone. First sub 50 low recorded since June 23rd.

Definitely wasn’t expecting it to be quite this hot today. The day before I left there was 25-30mph gusts and rain for a good part of the day. Weird change from when I went and came back from Oregon.

[Phil]

I would love that actually. Please do. If you do it without a laundry list of excuses why it didn’t work out I will be legitimately impressed and you will have my apologies.

 

I like you, Phil. Your global climate knowledge is an asset to this forum and you are a fun personality to have here. But you can’t blame me for being skeptical given your history, and the fact that things never seem to quite add up regarding your annuals pilgrimages out here. Admittedly it could just be coincidental but a lot of it just doesn’t pass the smell test for me. I’d love to be proven wrong!

All good. I’ll happily post a video while on the deck in Everett or something and rehash all the fun weather debates we’ve had here in said video.

 

It’s no problem. Will be a piece of cake.

[TT-SEA]

Okay, well I’ll happily post a video while on the deck in Everett or something and rehash all the fun weather debates we’ve had here in said video.

 

It’s no problem. Will be a piece of cake.

 

For the record... I actually believe you have been in Everett and West Seattle and will be again later this week.   And also Leavenworth.   Although you literally went right through North Bend and did not even make mention of it... which seems odd since you track the weather here on phone.  

 

You also posted pics of your drive up to Vancouver last time.  

[Phil]

As if my life wasn’t crazy/unbelievable enough..my family back home is without power and trapped in the neighborhood after a huge storm blasted through there around 6:30-7pm this evening. Apparently it was “worse than the Derecho” in 2012, with dime sized hail and “tornado winds” (layperson talk for very strong winds).

 

Figures I missed it, having left for Sarasota FL this afternoon. Apparently it snapped the guy wires to my anemometer pole too. That’s gonna be a b*tch to fix if true.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Looks like they did it. Can I hear a SCREEECH!?!?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

High temperatures today. Doesn't say here but SEA also hit 91 like PDX. SEA finishes with a +8 departure and PDX with a +5.

 

[Jesse]

For the record... I actually believe you have been in Everett and West Seattle and will be again later this week. And also Leavenworth. Although you literally went right through North Bend and did not even make mention of it... which seems odd since you track the weather here on phone.

 

You also posted pics of your drive up to Vancouver last time.

You’ve actually told me multiple times that you have your doubts. Some of the stuff you’ve pointed out has actually played a large role in my suspicions.

[BLI snowman]

Unusual to see Seattle warmer than Roseburg under a ridge in July.