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July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

Timmy Supercell
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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

Ensemble is trending cooler for later next week. Phil might get to experience a PNW trough.

Wooohoooo!!!

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Requiem
Requiem

1390 on my SAT and a 5 in AP English (meaning I don’t have to take it in college). I think that’s pretty darn okay considering how worried I was!

Jesse
Jesse

Meant to post these over the weekend. Hiked Coffin Mountain near Detroit, OR on Saturday and the beargrass display was stunning. Had never seen a bloom this extensive before.      

Deweydog
Deweydog

This is a great sign for winter.

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

Pretty tacky to flippantly talk about suicide. We just had a situation with a family member in Minnesota that we are dealing with right now.

I’m sorry to hear that, man. Difficult to find peace with sudden passings.

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

I think the overall pattern is causing problems with all of the models.

This might explain some of it (or the WT associated w/ it).

 

HNlfqlX.jpg

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TigerWoodsLibido Grand Master

TigerWoodsLibido

Posted
Posted

This winter will not be a dud. Last year didn't happen since I wasn't here to experience it.

 

I'm sorry.  I missed the great Arctic blast in 2013, with the all-time lows in some spots, I was in Texas then, so I can relate.

 

And yeah, this summer has been fantastic.

  • Like 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Esquimalt Explorer

Esquimalt

Posted
Posted

I have a very good feeling about this upcoming winter. The CFS has consistently been hinting at a large scale pattern of gulf of Aleutian ridge and pnw-Nunavut trough, from November off and on through March. With the sun as quiet as it is I’m am sure that many of us will see at least a few goodies this winter

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Omegaraptor Grand Master

Omegaraptor

Posted
Posted

I have a very good feeling about this upcoming winter. The CFS has consistently been hinting at a large scale pattern of gulf of Aleutian ridge and pnw-Nunavut trough, from November off and on through March. With the sun as quiet as it is I’m am sure that many of us will see at least a few goodies this winter

CFS is also going for plenty of wet weather as well. Most recent monthly (00z) is going for an 8-9” January for Portland (unfortunately also a torching month). Obviously none of this is even close to set in stone, but my feelings about next winter are increasing. There’s a ton of stuff pointing to it being a cold and snowy one.

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Omegaraptor Grand Master

Omegaraptor

Posted
Posted

In happier news, mid-range cooling trend continues on the GFS ensembles. The 18z operational moved in that direction as well.

attachicon.gifFA72C120-2B9D-402F-AA47-8A7373AADB47.png

I know we often call the 18z the druncle but the operational looks really nice for here. Mostly sunny with no major heat waves and no overcast crap either. I’d be happy to see it verify.
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TigerWoodsLibido Grand Master

TigerWoodsLibido

Posted
Posted

Quiet evening on the board tonight. Was at my GF's work summer party at PK Park. Man, we have the best summer weather ever here. I hope Phil can make it to the Willamette Valley at some point in the summer.

 

Currently 71F in downtown Springfield. Going to be a good star watching night.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

I vomited a bit. You need to get the f@$k outta there. Maybe change your plane ticket to WA to a one way ticket?

Soon, my brother. Soon.

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

Of course you were right in the middle of something without proof, once again....

Radar and observations aren’t enough?

 

But fine, here’s a video I took, driving my tiny Acura TSX through the tree debris. Pardon the profanity, just didn’t want to scratch up my bumper.

 

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Omegaraptor Grand Master

Omegaraptor

Posted
Posted

00z GFS looks delicious!

Looks like a good amount of troughing action mainly up in BC. If you look at 7-10 day GFS, you’ll notice forcing is right to the east of the Solomon Islands. I assume that equates to EHEM forcing, but I could be wrong.

 

Also, hope you guys can get a cooler pattern in the east in August. 80+ dewpoints = gross.

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

That ridgy period is completely gone on the GFS now.

 

Crazy how the models have consistently snatched away all the heat inside D7 in this regime. There has been plenty of modeled warmth out in the D8-10 period, but it progressively dies once crossing that D7 barrier.

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

Posted
Posted

That ridgy period is completely gone on the GFS now.

 

Crazy how the models have consistently snatched away all the heat inside D7 in this regime. There has been plenty of modeled warmth out in the D8-10 period, but it progressively dies once crossing that D7 barrier.

Yeah, the GFS ensembles now have us only touching average twice the rest of the month.

 

F73C1632-1C52-46A5-8D6A-CC75B991F16F.png

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

That ridgy period is completely gone on the GFS now.

 

Crazy how the models have consistently snatched away all the heat inside D7 in this regime. There has been plenty of modeled warmth out in the D8-10 period, but it progressively dies once crossing that D7 barrier.

It has been so consistent too. It obviously happens from time to time... but it has been happening routinely since the middle of June and always in the same direction. I wonder what is triggering the same long range model errors repeatedly?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TigerWoodsLibido Grand Master

TigerWoodsLibido

Posted
Posted

That ridgy period is completely gone on the GFS now.

 

Crazy how the models have consistently snatched away all the heat inside D7 in this regime. There has been plenty of modeled warmth out in the D8-10 period, but it progressively dies once crossing that D7 barrier.

Let’s hope that theme keeps chugging along thru next March, and esp in Dec-Jan. Opposite of the day 8 rug-pulls of the last 2 yrs.

  • Like 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

It has been so consistent too. It obviously happens from time to time... but it has been happening routinely since the middle of June and always in the same direction. I wonder what is triggering the same long range model errors repeatedly?

I think it’s the repetitive RW structure associated with the lack of large scale low/medium frequency divergence over the West-Pacific. For once the West-Pacific warm pool is not dominating the pattern over the Western Hemisphere.

 

The trigger appears to be that SSW and dynamic final warming this spring, which flipped the NAM and altered the tropical-ET exchanges, similarly to what happened during 2013. Restructured a RWB cycle and altered the ET/subtropical circulation.

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

12z GFS runs a full-on Pacific storm into BC in the 7-10 day range.

 

At this point, September through November are probably going to be nonstop ridging.

YEAH BABY! WOOHOO!

 

I’m legit excited to be out fishing in that.

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