July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[BLI snowman]

The heart of summer is late July/early August.

 

Yep, and it looks like it should begin right on queue. 

 

It's pretty typical historically for July 1-20 to have periodic systems and cloudier, cooler days. And it is completely not shocking at all when you apply for the fact that May and June were both warm and dry months.

 

The heart of summer i.e. when you really expect warm/dry every day, is just getting going. And there isn't anything too anomalous on the horizon in either direction. The horror!

[Front Ranger]

Not sure why you use the Snoqualmie Falls station when you are way higher elevation. Palmer recorded 3.5" on that day and Cedar Lake had 3.28". Those Nixonite Rattlesnake Ridgers would have been soaked to the bone with that kind of orographic nastiness! Definitely a significant jet extension there.

 

It's typical Tim. He picks and chooses the stats that best fit his narrative.

[Jesse]

as has been mentioned many times. Nina/ -PDO doesn’t automatically equal a cold wet summer. Not sure why the PDO would matter. If warmer water in the NE pacific doesn’t effect our observable weather, why would it matter if it was colder than normal?

I don’t think anything equals a cool/wet summer. What are we going on a decade now?

[Front Ranger]

Yep, and it looks like it should begin right on queue. 

 

It's pretty typical historically for July 1-20 to have periodic systems and cloudier, cooler days. And it is completely not shocking at all when you apply for the fact that May and June were both warm and dry months.

 

The heart of summer is just getting going, and there isn't anything too anomalous on the horizon in either direction. The horror!

 

Exactly. Hell, it was the driest spring on record for some locations, and much sunnier than normal overall.

[TT-SEA]

It's typical Tim. He picks and chooses the stats that best fit his narrative.

 

 

I don't care if there was 10 inches of rain in one day... its still just one event.

 

I do not have the daily records for Cedar Lake.   I know 7/12/1972 was a very wet day around here.  And the summer of 1972 looks lovely compared to 2019.

[TT-SEA]

Exactly. Hell, it was the driest spring on record for some locations, and much sunnier than normal overall.

 

 

Right... this has been a year of extremes and patterns getting stuck.  

 

Timing just sucks since many people value summer over the other seasons.   Nature does not care though.  

[Omegaraptor]

In order to facilitate better discussion regarding the nature of summer clouds in the PNW, I have changed my icon. 

 

Questions: 

1. Is the sky partly cloudy or mostly cloudy?

2. Does the sky remind you of summer? If not, what season does the sky remind you of?

3. How does this sky compare to previous years and their extreme sunniness? (Secret answer: no comparison!)

4. Does it look like a June sky, July sky, or perhaps even a February sky?

5. If you were to guess, was this sky found in Seattle, Portland, or North Bend?

6. How does the sky make you feel?

 

Any and all answers are welcome!!

1) Depends on the frequency of the clouds.

2) This sky can occur at almost any time of the year.

3) As you said, no comparison.

4) See #2.

5) Portland.

6) No particular feelings towards it.

[MossMan]

https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/161-mph-weather-balloon-at-forks-sees-all-time-summer-wind-speed-at-35000-feet

[TT-SEA]

The way the models are trending... it appears that the generally cloudy weather might continue for the rest of the month after a short break over the next couple days.

[MossMan]

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/07/the-strongest-summer-jet-stream-to-hit.html?m=1

[TT-SEA]

The wind this morning at the radiosonde site at Quillayute (UIL) was 140 knots (161 mph) at the 250 hPa level (again around 35,000 ft).   This is amazingly fast for this time of the year.

The plot below shows the climatology of the winds at this level throughout the year at this location, with the red lines being the all-time record for each date (the black lines are average winds for the date, blue lines, the record low winds).   Vertical soundings at Quillayute go back to the late 1960s...so we are talking about a half-century of observations.   The previous record was around 110 knots...so the 140 knots observed today absolutely shattered the record.     In fact, the wind over us right now is greater then the records for any date from April 1 to mid-October.

 

[Front Ranger]

The brightest time of the year has been unusually gloomy.

 

There's always a way to look at things more gloomily!

[Omegaraptor]

 

Forecast for North Bend. So cloudy and wet. How horrible.

[TT-SEA]

A533C54B-E239-4F1F-8B62-FB734D227BAA.jpeg

 

Forecast for North Bend. So cloudy and wet. How horrible.

 

It was looking quite nice... perfect actually.    Not horrible at all.  

 

But the models trends are going in the opposite direction... which has been happening for the last month.   It seems like a week of normal temps and sunshine would be almost inevitable at this point.   Maybe not.

[Front Ranger]

Right... this has been a year of extremes and patterns getting stuck.  

 

Timing just sucks since many people value summer over the other seasons.   Nature does not care though.  

 

And yet it's been said many times on here that spring is the season people often dislike most, because they are ready for warmer/drier and it can seem to take forever to arrive. Not in 2019! Seems like a dry/warm spring would be more appreciated than a dry/warm summer.

 

You win some, you lose some. Spring was a big win for you and others that are whining.

[Phil]

Yep, and it looks like it should begin right on queue.

 

It's pretty typical historically for July 1-20 to have periodic systems and cloudier, cooler days. And it is completely not shocking at all when you apply for the fact that May and June were both warm and dry months.

 

The heart of summer i.e. when you really expect warm/dry every day, is just getting going. And there isn't anything too anomalous on the horizon in either direction. The horror!

Yep. Again, if you need a 2013-18 type summer to be happy, then you’re living in the wrong climate.

 

And from the looks of it, a bunch of people here need to move to Phoenix or Spokane.

[TT-SEA]

And yet it's been said many times on here that spring is the season people often dislike most, because they are ready for warmer/drier and it can seem to take forever to arrive. Not in 2019! Seems like a dry/warm spring would be more appreciated than a dry/warm summer.

 

You win some, you lose some. Spring was a big win for you and others that are whining.

 

It wasn't that great though.

 

It rained on 23 days in April.

 

The first half of May and the first half of June were the really nice periods.     

[TT-SEA]

Yep. Again, if you need a 2013-18 type summer to be happy, then you’re living in the wrong climate.

 

And from the looks of it, a bunch of people here need to move to Phoenix or Spokane.

 

This is bullsh*t.   No one is saying that.   

 

I did not like 2017 and 2018 much at all... too dry and too hot and too smokey.   2015 was too hot as well.

 

The July - September period in 2012 was probably the best stretch of summer weather I have seen here in 16 years.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I'm excited for the active weather season to get here so we can start bitching about missing out on winter goodies instead of what we think the summer should be like where we live.

[Omegaraptor]

It wasn't that great though.

 

It rained on 23 days in April.

 

The first half of May and the first half of June were the really nice periods.

Second half of April here was almost all sun here. Sounds like yet another microclimate problem.

 

Also Tim, you asked about the German ensemble site. Here it is: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=135728&model=gfs&var=5&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I’ve been saying this for awhile...the last five summers have skewed people’s perspectives. Trust me, I know because it’s happened to me on numerous occasions. You don’t realize it until the rubber band snaps.

 

Those 2013-18 summers (and even 2003-2006 to a lesser extent) were historically anomalous in the upper levels. Multidecadal oscillations in the hemispheric wavestation are integral to the system state, but the post-1998 era has been absurd. Unlikely to repeat in our lifetimes once it finally terminates.

 

My hunch is the rapid flip from the historic modern solar maximum to what could be a grand solar minimum is playing a role..system’s inertia going one way, external forcing on the photochemical/gradient-state conduits going the other way. A gargantuan mess.

I agree with you on the grand solar minimum part. As long as we get monster cold and snowy winters like 50+ years ago, then I'd be okay with cooler PNW summers.

[Phil]

I don’t think anything equals a cool/wet summer. What are we going on a decade now?

People probably don’t remember what a true “cool” summer actually feels like.

 

It would be much worse than this for the complainers. All the silly “it’s just the clouds, I’d love a cool, crisp summer if it wasn’t foggy 24/7” talk will insta-freeze into “omg, this must be what the LIA was like, truly unprecedented!” while SEA runs monthly anomalies of -0.5 or something like that.

[jakeinthevalley]

Heading to San Francisco in the morning to catch some baseball this weekend. I am glad this July here has acclimated me to Bay Area weather. Would have been a shock to the system.

[TT-SEA]

Second half of April here was almost all sun here. Sounds like yet another microclimate problem.

 

To some degree.   

 

Based on 100+ years of history... it rains on 17 days in April at the Cedar Lake station at 1,500 feet in elevation.  

 

So it definitely rained on more days than normal in April.    The total rain in April at that station was 12.54 inches compared 8.23 inches normally.     It was a wet April in this area compared to normal for this area.

 

But that was coming off a February and March that saw very little rain.   So it was really expected.   My point is that April was not a wonderfully dry and sunny month here.   Quite the opposite.

[BLI snowman]

And yet it's been said many times on here that spring is the season people often dislike most, because they are ready for warmer/drier and it can seem to take forever to arrive. Not in 2019! Seems like a dry/warm spring would be more appreciated than a dry/warm summer.

 

You win some, you lose some. Spring was a big win for you and others that are whining.

 

I'm wondering if some people are just bound to their basements until they see the calendar says June 21? Did they not get the opportunity to go outside once during the warm, sunny spring? There's literally been no shortage of pleasant days around the region this year so far.

[Omegaraptor]

To some degree.

 

Based on 100+ years of history... it rains on 17 days in April at the Cedar Lake station at 1,500 feet in elevation.

 

So it definitely rained on more days than normal in April. The total rain in April at that station was 12.54 inches compared 8.23 inches normally. It was a wet April in this area compared to normal for this area.

 

But that was coming off a February and March that saw very little rain. So it was really expected. My point is that April was not a wonderfully dry and sunny month here. Quite the opposite.

I don’t think April is “wonderfully dry and sunny” anywhere in the PNW...

 

But obviously some places are better than others when it comes to that.

[TT-SEA]

It was the third warmest spring on record for the Seattle area but "wasn't that great though"? 

 

 

April was way wetter than normal in our area.     Warm and wet.   

[Phil]

The wind this morning at the radiosonde site at Quillayute (UIL) was 140 knots (161 mph) at the 250 hPa level (again around 35,000 ft). This is amazingly fast for this time of the year.

 

The plot below shows the climatology of the winds at this level throughout the year at this location, with the red lines being the all-time record for each date (the black lines are average winds for the date, blue lines, the record low winds). Vertical soundings at Quillayute go back to the late 1960s...so we are talking about a half-century of observations. The previous record was around 110 knots...so the 140 knots observed today absolutely shattered the record. In fact, the wind over us right now is greater then the records for any date from April 1 to mid-October.

 

If you look at the various reanalyses for the previous extended low-solar period in the 19th century, the circulation over the NPAC was so starkly different than recent decades, and would have favored very strong upper level jets during the summer months on a very frequent basis. It’s not unprecedented.

[BLI snowman]

People probably don’t remember what a true “cool” summer actually feels like.

 

It would be much worse than this for the complainers. All the silly “it’s just the clouds, I’d love a cool, crisp summer if it wasn’t foggy 24/7” talk will insta-freeze into “omg, this must be what the LIA was like, truly unprecedented!” while SEA runs monthly anomalies of -0.5 or something like that.

 

Even a summer from my younger years like 2001 and certainly 1993 would be a shock to the system for certain San Diego-area transplants who moved here afterwards.

[TT-SEA]

I don’t think April is “wonderfully dry and sunny” anywhere in the PNW...

 

But obviously some places are better than others when it comes to that.

 

Of course.

 

I am comparing the normal for a station in the Cascade foothills at 1,500 feet to what happened in April this year at that station.    Apples to apples.   

[Omegaraptor]

April was way wetter than normal in our area.     Warm and wet.

 

April was wetter than normal over most of the PNW. Especially Eugene, because of that AR that was supposed to hit us but whatever. Anyway, second half of the month had plenty of sun. The foothills are going to have plenty of rain during the rainy season.

[TT-SEA]

Even a summer from my younger years like 2001 and certainly 1993 would be a shock to the system for certain San Diego-area transplants who moved here afterwards.

 

You memory from 18 years ago... or actual data.   Hmmmmm.

 

Here is the a comparison to the last month from 2001 in my area.... WAY better.  

 

[Phil]

It was the third warmest spring on record for the Seattle area but "wasn't that great though"?

I feel bad piling on, but yes, this is Tim when he’s not sedated by ridging 24/7. Just a few weeks of warm season troughing and he’s back in old form.

[TT-SEA]

April was wetter than normal over most of the PNW. Especially Eugene, because of that AR that was supposed to hit us but whatever. Anyway, second half of the month had plenty of sun. The foothills are going to have plenty of rain during the rainy season.

 

You keep saying that... but I am comparing the normal for a foothill station to the actual results at that same foothill station.

 

It rained on 7 more days than normal... and rainfall was 4+ inches above normal.  

 

Again... not surprising at all given the lack of rain in February and March.     March was very dry... compared to normal for here.

 

I am not comparing normal for Portland to what happened here in April.  

[BLI snowman]

You memory from 18 years ago... or actual data.   Hmmmmm.

 

Here is the a comparison to the last month from 2001 in my area.... WAY better.  

 

 

 

Cute. The second half of July 2001 was wall to wall actually chilly cloudcover up there....

[Phil]

Tim, why not compare SEA’s July 2019 numbers to their July 2001 since you love UHI so much?

 

You only resort to that (overexposed) station when you want to make previous summers seem nicer compared to this one to justify your complaining.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The US drought monitor updated today. I won't post the maps since not many changes from last week but here's the summary for the West.

 

"Minimal changes were made, although generally cool weather in the Northwest contrasted with hot conditions in the Southwest. A few monsoon-related showers developed in the Four Corners States—the official monsoon start date in Tucson, Arizona, based on average dewpoint temperature, was July 13, the latest onset in that location since 2005. Meanwhile in eastern Washington, moderate drought (D1) was expanded due to an evaluation of water year-to-date precipitation totals; low reservoir levels; and soil moisture shortages. On July 14, USDA rated topsoil moisture 62% very short to short in Oregon and 39% very short to short in Washington."

[Front Ranger]

April was way wetter than normal in our area.     Warm and wet.   

 

March, May, and early June be damned?

[Omegaraptor]

Tim, why not compare SEA’s July 2019 numbers to their July 2001 since you love UHI so much?

You only resort to that (overexposed) station when you want to make previous summers seem nicer compared to this one to justify your complaining.

SEA average high for July 2019 so far is 73.6°F... and we haven’t even knocked out the warmest part of the month yet (and the models are showing warmth for most of the rest of the month).

 

SEA average high for the entirety of July 2001 was 71.7°F.

[ShawniganLake]

Yep. Again, if you need a 2013-18 type summer to be happy, then you’re living in the wrong climate.

 

And from the looks of it, a bunch of people here need to move to Phoenix or Spokane.

When are you moving?