July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Omegaraptor]

Given how anomalously hot/ridgy the last 6 summers have been, this “cloudy” July is just a tiny drop in the bucket.

 

The universe is a balancing act. Note the prominence of spheres and circles throughout the cosmos. Positive/negative, light/dark, yin/yang, the conservation of energy, every-action-has-an-equal-and-opposite-reaction, the cycle of life, etc.

 

You guys might be paying for those 6 years of torching for quite awhile. Tim should get out now, before the multiyear niña in the early 2020s sends glaciers into his backyard.

 

We also haven't seen a cool spring since 2011 or 2012. People only bring summer up, but torching springs have been an equally persistent if not more persistent trend.

 

Not to mention plenty of fall and winter torching as well.

 

Hoping that the trend of solar minimum winters being excellent winters in the PNW continues. 2008-09, 1996-97, 1985-86. Notice anything in common?

[jcmcgaffey]

SEA has only had measurable precip on like 1 of the past 10 weekends...looked it up a couple days ago.

that just shows either SEA is an outlier or total precipitation is not a good indicator of sunny dry weather. Plus like we have talked about before north and south of SEA have been quite different from each other. I have had several construction projects up north in Edmonds and a couple down south next to SEA. I have run into many delays and costs up north due to the weather but none down south. Rain is the number one weather related cost to construction and tax payers by a long shot. However the northwest is the best place to work weather-wise outside of California.

[TT-SEA]

This is quite nice for the middle of the afternoon in July...

 

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Did I not sing the praises of the weather over this past weekend enough for you? Pretty sure I was raving about our short window of nice weather.

 

I don't need any heat waves... although one would be nice for reasons that I have mentioned several times.

The comment was pointed more at others.

[Deweydog]

18z!!!

[TT-SEA]

Just for comparison... here was July of 1954 at Snoqualmie Falls.    

 

The month of July in the "year without summer" looks quite a bit nicer than this year.      <_>

 

You can tell by the chilly low temps that there were many more nights with clear skies and likely days with sunshine.

 

 

 

 

You know its been gloomy when the summer of 1954 looks like a huge improvement.

[Front Ranger]

More cam shots, PLEASE!

 

(directed at Tim)

[Phil]

We also haven't seen a cool spring since 2011 or 2012. People only bring summer up, but torching springs have been an equally persistent if not more persistent trend.

 

Not to mention plenty of fall and winter torching as well.

 

Hoping that the trend of solar minimum winters being excellent winters in the PNW continues. 2008-09, 1996-97, 1985-86. Notice anything in common?

It’s no coincidence.

 

Low geomagnetic actively appears most important. Years like 2008/09 and 2010/11 are two recent ones with very weak solar wind conditions. The 1995/96 and 1996/97 winters were also weak geomagnetically but not nearly to this extent.

 

Farther back, there was a dip in the solar wind/geomag activity preceding SC20, including 1964/65 and 1968/69.

[Omegaraptor]

Just for comparison... here was July of 1954 at Snoqualmie Falls.    

 

The month of July in the "year without summer" looks quite a bit nicer than this year.    <_>

 

In Portland, one out of three days during the crummer of 1954 failed to break 70, which is incredibly cool by Portland standards.

 

This year is not even close to 1954 or 1993. By the month’s end we’ll probably be well above all of the infamously cool summers in terms of average high as well. The odds that this summer will be remembered alongside 1983, 1993, and 2010 is very low.

 

North Bend does not represent the entire region.

[TT-SEA]

In Portland, one out of three days during the crummer of 1954 failed to break 70, which is incredibly cool by Portland standards.

 

This year is not even close to 1954 or 1993. By the month’s end we’ll probably be well above all of the infamously cool summers in terms of average high as well. The odds that this summer will be remembered alongside 1983, 1993, and 2010 is very low.

 

North Bend does not represent the entire region.

 

Absolutely not.    And this year will end up way warmer here than 1954 as well.   But that is only part of the story.    Sunny and cool is much more enjoyable than endlessly cloudy and warm.  

 

I am just providing local context for this summer here.

[TT-SEA]

As someone who lives in the same micro-climate, I really don't think it's been too bad. The huckleberry and salmon berry seasons have been far longer than the last few years and the berries taste far better. With this precipitation, I bet blackberry season will be FAR better than the last few years too. The lake is fuller than it has been in July the last few years. The grass is green, the plants are happy, and my water bill is subsequently lower. With cooler weather, the busy spots of the valley have been noticeably less busy. I've rarely had to lather up my 2-year old with sunscreen. Local outdoor activities, like riding down the SVT, hiking the middle fork, or mountain biking, are largely uninterrupted by clouds. And the nights have been pleasantly warm (but not hot), in part due to the cloud cover. 

 

Myself, my wife, and most of my friends grew up in WA and we've all noted that this summer brings back fond memories of the summers of our childhood. It's just...comfortable out. Not hot but not cold either. Yes it's been cloudier than usual out here but the next week looks like classic late-July sunny PNW.

 

 

Yeah... definite improvement ahead.   And everything is certainly lush green.  But you live in a small area that rarely ever sees the sun even when its sunny.    

 

My 70-year old neighbor who was born and raised in North Bend said yesterday that this summer has been cloudier than any year that he can remember.   Anecdotal of course... just like childhood memories of specific events and days.  

 

I also suspect that the fall colors will be absolutely brilliant this year.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This is quite nice for the middle of the afternoon in July...

 

 

 

 

We get it, Tim.

[Omegaraptor]

Yeah... definite improvement ahead.   And everything is certainly lush green.  

 

My 70-year old neighbor who was born and raised in North Bend said yesterday that this summer has been cloudier than any year that he can remember.   Anecdotal of course... just like childhood memories of specific events and days.  

A lot of people think our climate is drying up... even though the 1985-94 dry period utterly disproves this claim and average annual precipitation at PDX has been fairly stagnant since the station opened.

 

Memory can be a weird thing.

[TT-SEA]

We get it, Tim.

 

Just a little visual for those who live in perpetual sunshine down south.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just a little visual for those who live in perpetual sunshine down south.

 

Enjoying every minute of it. 

[Omegaraptor]

Dreariness index!

[TT-SEA]

Dreariness index!

 

Very high!

 

[TT-SEA]

18z!!!

 

 

Looks pretty nice.

 

The 18Z 'GFS-Legacy' is more aggressive with the ULL next week though.

[TT-SEA]

Little rebound appears to have ended... neutral winter ahead.     Lots of possibilities with that... and probably numerous east wind events.  

 

[Deweydog]

Retrogression.

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 0.10” so far today here. Up to 0.71” on the month as well. Currently 63 and light rain.

[TT-SEA]

In the summer, we get sun from just after sunrise to around 430 to 5 PM. Wouldn’t call that “rarely sees sun even when it’s sunny”, I’d call it living up against a mountain.

 

Before you disagree, keep in my that my source on this is, uh, myself since we’re talking about my house and I, uh, live there.

Yes but all of Wilderness Rim is quite shaded due to the very tall trees... which also make a huge mess every time the wind blows.

[Front Ranger]

that just shows either SEA is an outlier or total precipitation is not a good indicator of sunny dry weather. Plus like we have talked about before north and south of SEA have been quite different from each other. I have had several construction projects up north in Edmonds and a couple down south next to SEA. I have run into many delays and costs up north due to the weather but none down south. Rain is the number one weather related cost to construction and tax payers by a long shot. However the northwest is the best place to work weather-wise outside of California.

SEA has been pretty representative of most the region, as far as I can tell. Your area has definitely been a bigger outlier.

[Deweydog]

Bombgenesis.

[TT-SEA]

SEA has been pretty representative of most the region, as far as I can tell. Your area has definitely been a bigger outlier.

 

 

Appears so... SEA is .91 for the month now which is 130% of normal rainfall for the entire month.     The Cedar Lake station is at about 125% of normal rainfall for all of July.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

87 and sunny here in Medford, so a few degrees below average. 

 

Gone for a day and now I see the ensembles have taken away the heatwave. Good deal.

[TacomaWaWx]

With 0.71” of rain for this month, July has now had more rainfall than May and June combined 0.69” in Tacoma. Now the wettest July since 2012 also.

[TT-SEA]

Can someone link me to the German ensemble chart site for Seattle?

 

I can never find it.

[jcmcgaffey]

SEA has been pretty representative of most the region, as far as I can tell. Your area has definitely been a bigger outlier.

I was just responding to your comment that it has been sunny and dry almost every weekend with the article about the state DOT having to keep delaying their big freeway project as they were washed out on 8 of 12 weekends last summer and all 4 weekends this summer so far. It has definitely not been as sunny and dry as further south apparently which is fine and I enjoy much more than sunny hot weather but it should be recognized as I was even surprised that the state had that many washouts last summer and this summer which is why they are substantially behind on their summer paving work the last two summers.

[Deweydog]

Flash freeze.

[Kayla]

Bombgenesis.

 

Polar Vortex.

[jcmcgaffey]

Appears so... SEA is .91 for the month now which is 130% of normal rainfall for the entire month. The Cedar Lake station is at about 125% of normal rainfall for all of July.

the last ten days or so have not had substantial rain but very persistent light rain not adding up to much.

[Front Ranger]

I was just responding to your comment that it has been sunny and dry almost every weekend with the article about the state DOT having to keep delaying their big freeway project as they were washed out on 8 of 12 weekends last summer and all 4 weekends this summer so far. It has definitely not been as sunny and dry as further south apparently which is fine and I enjoy much more than sunny hot weather but it should be recognized as I was even surprised that the state had that many washouts last summer and this summer which is why they are substantially behind on their summer paving work the last two summers.

Well, first I didn't say it's been sunny every weekend. I just gave the precip stats for SEA. Even Tim agreed the timing for nice weather on the weekends has been pretty good.

 

Second, just because that project hasn't gotten done doesn't mean those weekends were "washouts". The article made it clear that any moisture at all prevents the work from happening.

[Requiem]

Hot weather sucks. Why do you want to struggle getting to sleep and/or paying a ton for electricity to stay cool?? Same stupidity as rooting for wind that topples trees and causes power outages.

 

Mhm. I thought you enjoyed thunderstorms? Most SVR-warned storms end up doing the same thing anyways...

[MossMan]

Happy October 17th everyone!

 

Note: The dead grass on the left was from the owner spraying roundup. Hopefully he is up to date on his testicular cancer insurance.

[Deweydog]

It’s July 17th.

[TacomaWaWx]

Couple small breaks in the clouds here in Tacoma currently 63 degrees. Up to 0.12” on the day.

[Omegaraptor]

Portland forecast looks wonderful. Sun all the way through.

[GHweatherChris]

Daylight here still, should continue to accumulate some more daylight for a few more hours per the clock.

[TacomaWaWx]

Weather doesn’t look terrible for my visit to the Portland area tomorrow morning. Weekend looks nice for camping south of the mountain as well.