July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Phil]

This is the deepest point of the trough.

 

I just want to get you on record saying that is a laughably impossible pattern for July.

 

Not the pattern. The pattern progression.

[ShawniganLake]

Still room for it to trend cooler. I’m negotiating with Mother Nature right now, ready to accept a swampy September in exchange for a super duper PNW vortex starting 8/1.

 

The aggregate of convectuve forcing will become EHEM centered with time, so there’s a chance that troughing comes back sooner than we think!

Early August history is infamous for strong vortex events impacting Washington state. Why don’t you come back in November?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Tonight is in no hurry to cool off, thick cloud cover rolled in right at sunset.

[TacomaWaWx]

63 and mostly clear here. Breezy evening. Also still no power here Tacoma power says 1500 people have no power here in North Tacoma. Has been off for 2 hours.

[GHweatherChris]

Phil spends all this time cheering for a trough for the 3 days that he is in Everett.

 

Meanwhile... Everett is usually around 72 degrees under a trough in late July and maybe 80 under a ridge. With dewpoints in the 40s or 50s either way.

 

The implications are obviously huge!

You mean alleged time in Everett.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF takes a slightly different path with the ULL going by to the north on Wednesday... but still gets to a nice ridge just in time for Phil's arrival...

 

[Phil]

You mean alleged time in Everett.

You want me to take a video this time?

[ShawniganLake]

You want me to take a video this time?

A photo of you at a recognizable landmark with a newspaper and the appropriate date showing will suffice

[GHweatherChris]

You want me to take a video this time?

Nah, wouldn't want you to lose your credibility.

[Phil]

Ha, this is funny.

 

No worries, I’ll take care of this stupid conspiracy theory once and for all.

[GHweatherChris]

Ha, this is funny.

 

No worries, I’ll take care of this stupid conspiracy theory once and for all.

I believe you have said this before... yet, here we are.

[ShawniganLake]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

CD8A6867-C552-41F2-B3F7-3AADC3B86597.png 5E1DEBD5-8CFA-4AF7-BE1F-C6345139FB43.png

Here comes the blast furnace. Last week of July and the first week of August often feel to me like the hottest 2 weeks of the year.

[MossMan]

Up to .06” so far on the day. Rain and breezy currently.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Cloudy and 60F in downtown Springfield.

[TacomaWaWx]

61 and cloudy here this morning in Tacoma. No rainfall to speak of and probably will be less than here with westerly flow. Low of 60 this morning.

[TacomaWaWx]

Of course it starts raining now that I said it’ll be dry for the most part today here lol.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Here comes the blast furnace. Last week of July and the first week of August often feel to me like the hottest 2 weeks of the year.

For Springfield, the hottest day of the year on average is August 4. Also the clearest day of the year is August 3.

 

https://weatherspark.com/y/413/Average-Weather-in-Springfield-Oregon-United-States-Year-Round

[TT-SEA]

Dark, breezy, and damp out there. Certainly doesn't feel like summer.

 

Good thing this weekend still looks gorgeous! 

 

 

No doubt.

 

Best thing about today is that we are getting this crap over with now.   The weekend cannot come soon enough.   

[TacomaWaWx]

Has been drizzling/sprinkling for about an hour but not adding up to anything. Pretty breezy here as well. We went from 68 and rainy on Monday to 77 and mostly sunny yesterday now back to mid 60s and drizzle today.

[ShawniganLake]

[TT-SEA]

Once again... the point is not the temperature anomalies or even the total rainfall.

 

Its that there has been just 4 days in July that have been mostly sunny even in Seattle... 4 out of 17 days.   That is also a reason for the warm anomalies.   That sucks for July... and improvement is almost inevitable at this point.  

[TacomaWaWx]

Once again... the point is not the temperature anomalies or even the total rainfall.

 

Its that there has been just 4 days in July that have been mostly sunny even in Seattle... 4 out of 17 days. That is also a reason for the warm anomalies. That sucks for July... and improvement is almost inevitable at this point.

it’s been a 71/57 average so far here. Theme has been warm nights and average days. We’ve had 4 60+ low temps but have also only had 5 75+ days with no 80+ days. Like you said it’s been cloudy as well last weekend was the nicest sunniest stretch of weather this month. I’m pretty sure we’re in for some clearer warmer summer days soon.

[TT-SEA]

SEA is at 80% cloud cover for July so far.

 

That is actually worse than the November average.   

[TT-SEA]

The Cedar Lake station is already at 125% of normal rainfall for all of July through mid-month (2.63 inches)... and it has rained out here on 11 out of 17 days this month.    And a couple other days had non-measurable drizzle/mist.

 

A wet July is not really surprising though... since has been quite dry overall this year.     Unfortunately... it has come so slowly and on so many days.    

 

It is lush green and very wet out here which is actually a little unusual for mid-July.   No sign of any drought. 

[Deweydog]

Here we go....

[TT-SEA]

Here we go....

 

 

It is what it is.

 

Not going to ignore it.    

[GHweatherChris]

Here we go....

Ya, things are getting revved up early today...

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS definitely more aggressive with the ULL in the middle of next week.  

[MossMan]

Today reminds me of mid October. Bands of rain and gusty winds with temps in the 50’s. Feels like we should be picking out pumpkins!

[ShawniganLake]

0.06” of rain this morning. Should be just enough to put July up to normal rainfall. First month we have seen that since January

[snow maniac]

Rain shadow doing its thing, barely a sprinkle so far.

[Front Ranger]

No doubt.

 

Best thing about today is that we are getting this crap over with now. The weekend cannot come soon enough.

Despite all your whining, the timing has been pretty good for weekend weather this summer.

[GHweatherChris]

Cloudy and rainy this morning, but still very light outside, nowhere near dark, the sun has risen just like every other day this summer!!

[Front Ranger]

SEA is at 80% cloud cover for July so far.

 

That is actually worse than the November average.   

 

A lot of high cloud coverage in there, though. Yesterday had 70% cloud coverage according to official stats, yet was an 80 degree day with plenty of sunshine.

 

A lot more low clouds in November.

[TT-SEA]

Despite all your whining, the timing has been pretty good for weekend weather this summer.

 

That has helped.... but the long 4th of July weekend was pretty ugly.    There was just enough clearing close to the water on the 4th that we were able to get out on the boat on Lake Sammamish.    The dark clouds hovered just to the east of the lake.  

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

A lot of high cloud coverage in there, though. Yesterday had 70% cloud coverage according to official stats, yet was an 80 degree day with plenty of sunshine.

 

A lot more low clouds in November.

 

Regardless... it has been a very cloudy July.

 

I went through the visible satellite loops for July of 2008, 2010, and 2011 and all of them were quite a bit more sunny to this point in the month even in my area and those were cloudy months as well.  

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 12Z GFS ensemble mean is less aggressive with the break down of the ridge next week compared to the operational run.

 

Here is the 12Z GFS operational run for next Thursday:

 

 

 

And here is the 12Z GFS ensemble mean map at the same time:

 

[TT-SEA]

Also... the 12Z GEM does not show any break down and is actually more ridgy than its 00Z run.    Too bad its the GEM.