December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Going to go through most of the 11/20-12/20 period without any impressive cold in the lower 48, the cut-off trough at Thanksgiving in the SW notwithstanding. 

 

Seems like a lot of false narratives get pushed here. One of which is that there has been major blocking this season...Just not true. There was some blocking early on, but it definitely has not established as a theme. 

[ShawniganLake]

A quick extrapolation suggests that at late day 10/early day 11 looks like a big fat WINDSTORM.

Explosive cyclogenesis

[Jesse]

Seems like a lot of false narratives get pushed here. One of which is that there has been major blocking this season...Just not true. There was some blocking early on, but it definitely has not established as a theme.

 

Low solar.

[Deweydog]

MLK

[TigerWoodsLibido]

48F and damp out there.

[MossMan]

MLK

One of these years you will hit the jackpot! Could be 2035 but it will most likely happen!

[Jesse]

Good point, and it turned out much better than I thought it would at the end.

 

Comparison of the last 3 runs, not all the same hour as this only shows 24 hour increments.

 

And todays:

 

 

Yeah, hour 240 actually doesn't appear very splitty. I think we are all just gunshy about seeing that pattern since it has dominated for so long.

[Deweydog]

One of these years you will hit the jackpot! Could be 2035 but it will most likely happen!

It’ll soon be EIGHT YEARS since 2012.

[BLI snowman]

Seems like a lot of false narratives get pushed here. One of which is that there has been major blocking this season...Just not true. There was some blocking early on, but it definitely has not established as a theme. 

 

Would certainly be awesome to see this season reach the heights of such solar max snoozers as 1978-79 and 2013-14, but I doubt it will. 

[TT-SEA]

Speaking of winter flowers... forgot to post this yesterday. Roses are still blooming in our cutting flower garden next to the new garage. This is is a pretty low spot in the yard as well.

 

[MossMan]

It’ll soon be EIGHT YEARS since 2012.

It was a lovely week. This is all I have from that event I believe...Stupid Samsung phone that died before I could get all of the pics off of it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Would certainly be awesome to see this season reach the heights of such solar max snoozers as 1978-79 and 2013-14, but I doubt it will. 

 

Even if we have something half as good...

[Deweydog]

[kokaneekidz]

Most of the Pacific is warmer than normal right now...

 

 

 

Love to see the warm water around Hawaii.   

The lack of Low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska is the major culprit for this current state of affairs. We are in dire need of some prolonged storminess originating in that vicinity if we desire a lasting change.

[Phil]

Going to go through most of the 11/20-12/20 period without any impressive cold in the lower 48, the cut-off trough at Thanksgiving in the SW notwithstanding.

Background state is/will remain cold, though.

 

[MossMan]

[Phil]

Seems like a lot of false narratives get pushed here. One of which is that there has been major blocking this season...Just not true. There was some blocking early on, but it definitely has not established as a theme.

Let’s bump this in 6 weeks.

 

The last 2 weeks have been less blocky. But the previous two months were very blocky.

[Phil]

Would certainly be awesome to see this season reach the heights of such solar max snoozers as 1978-79 and 2013-14, but I doubt it will.

+QBO/-ENSO are often very blocky across the NPAC regardless of solar.

 

But any other combo and weak solar demonstrably aids in opening the conduits for sustained blocking, especially during Nov-Jan.

[Deweydog]

It’s December 8th.

[Phil]

The lack of Low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska is the major culprit for this current state of affairs. We are in dire need of some prolonged storminess originating in that vicinity if we desire a lasting change.

Depends. Aleutian/NPAC troughing actually promotes coastal downwelling thanks to geostrophic/wind stress forcing against the boundary current system. So it really depends on the longitude and the presence of a NPAC high.

 

And whether that “blob” lives or dies won’t change anything in terms of the weather patterns.

[Jesse]

Depends. Aleutian/NPAC troughing actually promotes coastal downwelling thanks to geostrophic/wind stress forcing against the boundary current system. So it really depends on the longitude and the presence of a NPAC high.

And whether that “blob” lives or dies won’t change anything in terms of the weather patterns.

If it dies it will mean the pattern has changed, though.

[Phil]

[Deweydog]

Aunt Bethany, by any chance does your cat like Jello?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It’s December 8th.

 

My father was born on this date in 1952. ANALOG?!

[ShawniganLake]

[Timmy Supercell]

It’s December 8th.

 

It was -20 with a high of only 6 on that date in 2013 here. I wonder when that kind of event returns...

[Deweydog]

It was -20 with a high of only 6 on that date in 2013 here. I wonder when that kind of event returns...

Not today. Tomorrow doesn’t look good either.

[Timmy]

Not today. Tomorrow doesn’t look good either.

mlk

[Deweydog]

mlk

Starting to fight those sun angles by then...

[Omegaraptor]

Starting to fight those sun angles by then...

 

Luckily we can hope for a 1/10/17 repeat

 

Once you're past December 21 the sun angles make it harder and harder though.

[MossMan]

Starting to fight those sun angles by then...

Many many weeks after MLK 2019! Only sun angle was my brights shining against and icy snow covered road!

[Blizzard777]

He might have to. Been pretty dry the past few months.

 

C4853F4B-F29F-4448-B17D-09A8C822E38A.png

Newberry volcano looks right on the money !

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interestingly, though SLE's all time record low of -12 was set on December 8th, their record for December 6th is 30 degrees warmer at 18 set in 1956. 

 

There are also some periods of relatively low hanging fruit records (From a historical perspective), during the first half of January. From the 2-6th their record lows are all in the 11-16 range. In fact the 14 on 1/6/17 tied a daily record. That was the first time they tied or broke a January record low since 1980. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS forecast Teleconnection Indices

Yeah PNA tanks, but EPO is not cooperating. Nonetheless I am cautiously optimistic.

 

 

00z GFS in 5 hours 22 minutes

00z ECMWF in 7 hours 39 minutes

00z GEFS in 7 hours 54 minutes

00z EPS in 10 hours 24 minutes

 

 

Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!!

❄ ❄ ☃ ❄ ❄

or Raging Jet and Windstorms!!!! ☁

[MossMan]

Fixed the bottom of your post.

 

 

00z GEFS forecast Teleconnection Indices

 

Yeah PNA tanks, but EPO is not cooperating. Nonetheless I am cautiously optimistic.

 

 

00z GFS in 5 hours 22 minutes

00z ECMWF in 7 hours 39 minutes

00z GEFS in 7 hours 54 minutes

00z EPS in 10 hours 24 minutes

 

 

Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!!

❄ ❄ ☃ ❄ ❄

or Raging Jet and Windstorms!!!! Or any type of weather at all!!! ☁

[Blizzard777]

 

Snowed here for a few hours. Then it rained.

 

Ultimate Sad Snowman! 

[Gradient Keeper]

Fixed the bottom of your post.

 

Accurate. Basically no split flow, or inversion hell.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seems like a fairly coolish airmass for next weekend. Snow levels about 2000-2500' in NW Oregon, 1000-2000' in Washington. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Brian in Leavenworth was right. The Saturday system goes into Norcal now, dry and chilly next Saturday/Sunday. Turns into a nice snow event for SLC and Denver. 

[TT-SEA]

Seems like a fairly coolish airmass for next weekend. Snow levels about 2000-2500' in NW Oregon, 1000-2000' in Washington.

Need precip for snow levels to matter... models look pretty dry next weekend.