December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

EPS 500mb height anomaly at hour 240:

 

 

 

 

[Jesse]

I would like cold onshore flow or an arctic blast more than anything. 

 

Tim?

[Dave]

I have two pet mice, well they're not exactly pets since they were never invited inside. They greatly piss me off and ignore my mousetraps. I named them Ridgey and BSF.

[Guest CulverJosh]

We are certainly starting to see the modelling reflect a more -PNA like look in the LR per this EPS run:

912C5325-1370-4301-B429-A7DDC71DF6E6.png

 

This means things will get interesting for the PNW and the whole West Coast region for the majority of December, as per the details of the drivers in my long term outlook <a href=“https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/12/09/north-america-on-the-long-term-9th-december/“>here </a>

This is caused by the concluding +EAMT and a synoptic situation and base state that supports such PNA domain changes and hence snowfall for the PNW.

See this is your first post. What is your background? Very Phil like post.

[Deweydog]

You should have edited out the wetter and more active part to make that work better.

 

Also, it is nice to see the second preferred method on full display here!

Wha happened to your passionate, Greta-esque charge against the EPS and all its timfoolery?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tim?

 

Phil?!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We are certainly starting to see the modelling reflect a more -PNA like look in the LR per this EPS run:912C5325-1370-4301-B429-A7DDC71DF6E6.pngThis means things will get interesting for the PNW and the whole West Coast region for the majority of December, as per the details of the drivers in my long term outlook https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/12/09/north-america-on-the-long-term-9th-december/“>hereThis is caused by the concluding +EAMT and a synoptic situation and base state that supports such PNA domain changes and hence snowfall for the PNW.

 

Did you have trouble setting up a new account? My brother and my buddy both told me they have been unsuccessful in setting up accounts on here. 

[Snowy Hibbo]

See this is your first post. What is your background? Very Phil like post.

No educational background in the subject, just been around for a while doing as a hobby and interested in medium-long range weather patterns primarily. Run a blog and am on several other forums.

[Jesse]

Wha happened to your passionate, Greta-esque charge against the EPS and all its timfoolery?

 

I never said it was a bad model. That's all just strawman crap.

 

When it's often the only model image that's consistently posted by certain members, and it's largely only posted when we are painted in bright, warm and droughty reds and browns that's sure to raise some eyebrows, though.

 

And of course I am only one of the dozens of posters here who have pointed out that timdency. To bad every1 haz him awl rong...

[Snowy Hibbo]

Did you have trouble setting up a new account? My brother and my buddy both told me they have been unsuccessful in setting up accounts on here.

 

I have tried multiple times over the past few months and failed, and it finally worked this time. Apparently persistence is key

[Guest CulverJosh]

Did you have trouble setting up a new account? My brother and my buddy both told me they have been unsuccessful in setting up accounts on here.

So it is Phil? Lol.

[Guest CulverJosh]

When I got moderated I tried to set up another account and it doesn’t ever let you get past the robot word. No matter if you type it in perfect every time.

[TacomaWaWx]

So it is Phil? Lol.

lol just because he’s new and knows some weather abbreviations doesn’t make him Phil.

[Guest CulverJosh]

lol just because he’s new and knows some weather abbreviations doesn’t make him Phil.

 

Ha ha. It was a very Phil-like post. Let us not kid ourselves.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ya'll are not gonna like the ensembles. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Rain is starting to get heavier now and the breeze is picking up too. Up to 0.10” for the day.

[Front Ranger]

EVERYBODY’S ALL WORKED UP!!!

 

And Kung Fu fighting.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

When I got moderated I tried to set up another account and it doesn’t ever let you get past the robot word. No matter if you type it in perfect every time.

 

That is what they were telling me. 

[Jesse]

Ha ha. It was a very Phil-like post. Let us not kid ourselves.

 

I think someone needs to take out their head trash.

[Phil]

We are certainly starting to see the modelling reflect a more -PNA like look in the LR per this EPS run: 912C5325-1370-4301-B429-A7DDC71DF6E6.png

 

This means things will get interesting for the PNW and the whole West Coast region for the majority of December, as per the details of the drivers in my long term outlook https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/12/09/north-america-on-the-long-term-9th-december/“>here

 

This is caused by the concluding +EAMT and a synoptic situation and base state that supports such PNA domain changes and hence snowfall for the PNW.

Nice post!

 

Would the +EAMT support -PNA, though? Obviously it’s responsible for the extension of the East-Asian jet, but IMO the transient Aleutian ridge/+NPO can be likely attributed to frictional torque in resonance with lingering IO forcing.

 

When the WPAC takes over from the IO and we establish the NW-Pacific trough/-EPO again, I don’t think that will favor a very active PNA signal, unless I’m missing something.

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like snoqualmie pass is gonna get some decent snow too. Snow levels starting off lower than anticipated...more good news.

[Jesse]

Looks like snoqualmie pass is gonna get some decent snow too. Snow levels starting off lower than anticipated...more good news.

 

Great news!

[Phil]

D15 EPS..lots of STJ cutting across the southern US with a retrograding high latitude wave station.

 

[Blizzard777]

So it is Phil? Lol.

If this was true he would of snuck Baffin Island into the mix

[Phil]

Also some smoothing going on there. That pulse of warmth quickly retrogrades back across NW-Canada on most members but the different timings amongst the ensemble members makes it look like a nationwide torch.

[Guest CulverJosh]

I think someone needs to take out their head trash.

Don’t have any. I actually am training 14 employees, 6 of whom are under 25 and have a ton of head trash. Glad you read that Jesse, and yes I know you are older than that.

 

I was just stating that it sounded like Phil. Cheers.

[Phil]

Don’t have any. I actually am training 14 employees, 6 of whom are under 25 and have a ton of head trash. Glad you read that Jesse, and yes I know you are older than that.

 

I was just stating that it sounded like Phil. Cheers.

We all have some head trash. I know I do.

 

It’s okay to be human.

[MossMan]

Interesting day on the forum! Too bad about the ensembles.

[Snowy Hibbo]

Nice post!

Would the +EAMT support -PNA, though? Obviously it’s responsible for the extension of the East-Asian jet, but IMO the transient Aleutian ridge/+NPO can be likely attributed to frictional torque in resonance with lingering IO forcing.

When the WPAC takes over from the IO and we establish the NW-Pacific trough/-EPO again, I don’t think that will favor a very active PNA signal, unless I’m missing something.

Thanks.

 

No not necessarily, equating these weather patterns to each other in this case is specific, rather than as a general rule.

On many occasions, a +EAMT supports rather the opposite, a +PNA. But in this case, the extension of the jet results from an increase in momentum in the North Pacific basin IMO. The FT has been negative for sometime, though there are some positive FT anomalies in the NH subtropics.

 

But I do agree with the overall view you have here, you are going to need the atmospheric base state to change from the IO to WPAC. I’d however argue that won’t happen anytime soon, probably more likely (gradually of course) to be seen in January. For now, the West Coast should benefit until the momentum anomalies are scrubbed from the NP basin, at which point it is up to the synoptics in this scenario. Of course there’s a fair amount of talk at the moment about -NAM and -NAOs, which doesn’t affect the PNW directly, but will have eventual downstream effects.

[MossMan]

Thanks.

 

No not necessarily, equating these weather patterns to each other in this case is specific, rather than as a general rule.

On many occasions, a +EAMT supports rather the opposite, a +PNA. But in this case, the extension of the jet results from an increase in momentum in the North Pacific basin IMO. The FT has been negative for sometime, though there are some positive FT anomalies in the NH subtropics.

 

But I do agree with the overall view you have here, you are going to need the atmospheric base state to change from the IO to WPAC. I’d however argue that won’t happen anytime soon, probably more likely (gradually of course) to be seen in January. For now, the West Coast should benefit until the momentum anomalies are scrubbed from the NP basin, at which point it is up to the synoptics in this scenario. Of course there’s a fair amount of talk at the moment about -NAM and -NAOs, which doesn’t affect the PNW directly, but will have eventual downstream effects.

We finally have a local Phil! Great stuff!

[Jesse]

Dome buster might be wise to invest in a trash compactor at this rate.

[Phil]

Thanks.

 

No not necessarily, equating these weather patterns to each other in this case is specific, rather than as a general rule.

On many occasions, a +EAMT supports rather the opposite, a +PNA. But in this case, the extension of the jet results from an increase in momentum in the North Pacific basin IMO. The FT has been negative for sometime, though there are some positive FT anomalies in the NH subtropics.

But the ongoing +EAMT is what’s adding said zonal momentum/producing the jet extension in the first place, so I’m not clear as to what you’re saying? That additional momentum has been removed efficiently by frictional torque to this point. It’s the only reason AAM isn’t sky high through the roof right now.

[Snowy Hibbo]

We finally have a local Phil! Great stuff!

I reckon he’s better than me personally. And as for local, well I’m actually from Australia, so not so local

[Jesse]

I reckon he’s better than me personally. And as for local, well I’m actually from Australia, so not so local

 

Welcome to the forum.

 

Funnily enough I went down an internet rabbit hole researching the climate of the Blue Mountains in eastern Australia just yesterday.

[Phil]

The MT contributions to AAM/tendency. EAMT clearly dominates but notice AAM is not shooting through the roof despite the multiweek + event. Friction countering.

 

[Phil]

I reckon he’s better than me personally. And as for local, well I’m actually from Australia, so not so local

I’m a nobody. Glad I have someone to talk to.

[Snowy Hibbo]

But the ongoing +EAMT is what’s adding said zonal momentum/producing the jet extension in the first place, so I’m not clear as to what you’re saying? That additional momentum has been removed efficiently by frictional torque downstream from the Pacific to this point. It’s the only reason AAM isn’t sky high through the roof right now.

Yeah I concur with that. That’s what I meant, sorry if I was rambling on.

 

The gradual scrubbing of the momentum anomalies over the next 10-15 days will dislodge the Aleutian Low as it previously standed, and allow the development of a strong +EPO, with -AAM-esque anomalies driving it.

 

Today (per NP jetstream analysis) is the peak of the effects of the +EAMT.

[Snowy Hibbo]

The MT contributions to AAM/tendency. EAMT clearly dominates but notice AAM is not shooting through the roof despite the multiweek + event. Friction countering

Here’s a fresh chart for you:

EAMT declining, and MT worldwide well into the negatives. Will see GWO Phase 2 very soon.

And we probably won’t see a positive MT for a while.

[Phil]

Yeah I concur with that. That’s what I meant, sorry if I was rambling on.

 

The gradual scrubbing of the momentum anomalies over the next 10-15 days will dislodge the Aleutian Low as it previously standed, and allow the development of a strong +EPO, with -AAM-esque anomalies driving it.

 

Today (per NP jetstream analysis) is the peak of the effects of the +EAMT.

Interesting take. We’ll see, I guess.

 

FWIW, I’d agree with +EPO if we weren’t to be observing NAM effects from the November stratwarm in tandem with a building WPAC exhaust pipe. That in addition to the antecedent +AAM moat present in the subtropics should (IMO) prevent a raging +EPO, and favor +WPO and perhaps -EPO (following the -AO in late Dec/early Jan).

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Acronym battle!!!