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August 2020 Observations and Discussion

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#1
Tom

Posted 27 July 2020 - 04:22 AM

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As we wind down what has been a very hot and steamy July, where nearly all of us fried, what shall we expect for the last month of met Summer???  I know I may speak on behalf of many of you on this board, but I think we need a break from the oppressive heat and humidity for a while.  Well, low and hold, there is strong indication that the wx pattern overall for our Sub will indeed change in a dramatic way.  In fact, it already has begun for our central members and will extend east throughout the rest of this week.

 

Let's dive in....

 

 

Last night's 00z GEFS and EPS have a large pocket of cool to rule the central ag belt to open up the first full week of August...

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_6.png

 

 

 

 

The interesting wx system that will contribute to this cool down next week is a very rare late summer storm system.  Actually, come to think of it, over the past couple summers we have seen these rare storms deliver appreciable precip.  This particular storm has that CO Low track that dips south and cuts up towards the lower lakes!  Pretty cool to see.

 

 

 

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#2
OKwx2k4

Posted 27 July 2020 - 08:44 AM

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As we wind down what has been a very hot and steamy July, where nearly all of us fried, what shall we expect for the last month of met Summer??? I know I may speak on behalf of many of you on this board, but I think we need a break from the oppressive heat and humidity for a while. Well, low and hold, there is strong indication that the wx pattern overall for our Sub will indeed change in a dramatic way. In fact, it already has begun for our central members and will extend east throughout the rest of this week.

Let's dive in....


Last night's 00z GEFS and EPS have a large pocket of cool to rule the central ag belt to open up the first full week of August...

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_6.png




The interesting wx system that will contribute to this cool down next week is a very rare late summer storm system. Actually, come to think of it, over the past couple summers we have seen these rare storms deliver appreciable precip. This particular storm has that CO Low track that dips south and cuts up towards the lower lakes! Pretty cool to see.


What a way to close out July and open Aug. Mid 80s. That's a difference from many seasons. Be the first time its actually showed up for me and closed down the hottest part. Lol.
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#3
CentralNebWeather

Posted 27 July 2020 - 08:52 AM

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As we wind down what has been a very hot and steamy July, where nearly all of us fried, what shall we expect for the last month of met Summer??? I know I may speak on behalf of many of you on this board, but I think we need a break from the oppressive heat and humidity for a while. Well, low and hold, there is strong indication that the wx pattern overall for our Sub will indeed change in a dramatic way. In fact, it already has begun for our central members and will extend east throughout the rest of this week.

Let's dive in....


Last night's 00z GEFS and EPS have a large pocket of cool to rule the central ag belt to open up the first full week of August...

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_6.png




The interesting wx system that will contribute to this cool down next week is a very rare late summer storm system. Actually, come to think of it, over the past couple summers we have seen these rare storms deliver appreciable precip. This particular storm has that CO Low track that dips south and cuts up towards the lower lakes! Pretty cool to see.


That is a really cool map. Hope this verifies

#4
snowstorm83

Posted 27 July 2020 - 03:19 PM

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I'm seeing low 80s and sunny as we go into August. It could be much worse, I'll take that in a heartbeat. 


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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 


#5
Tom

Posted 28 July 2020 - 02:40 AM

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Boy, last night's 00z Euro has daytime highs in the low/mid 70's for a few days next week across the eastern MW into the GL's region.  What a way to open up a new month, ay???  This is going to feel like bonafide early Autumn with DP's in the 40's!  Models continue to extend the cooler trend into Week 2 of August.



#6
james1976

Posted 28 July 2020 - 03:40 AM

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Boy, last night's 00z Euro has daytime highs in the low/mid 70's for a few days next week across the eastern MW into the GL's region. What a way to open up a new month, ay??? This is going to feel like bonafide early Autumn with DP's in the 40's! Models continue to extend the cooler trend into Week 2 of August.

Is it far enough west to get me in?
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#7
Tom

Posted 28 July 2020 - 03:43 AM

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Is it far enough west to get me in?

Yes, pretty much from IA and points east...



#8
james1976

Posted 28 July 2020 - 04:22 AM

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Yes, pretty much from IA and points east...

Man I'd take that in a heartbeat. Mets have low 80s next week but hopefully the Euro wins out.
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#9
Hawkeye

Posted 28 July 2020 - 06:43 AM

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The extended certainly looks very nice.  I just wish it came with some good rain.


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season snowfall: 36.2"

 

'18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#10
Niko

Posted 28 July 2020 - 09:37 AM

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Holy crap! We are almost in August already. Geez! Talk about; "Time that goes by fast." :blink:



#11
james1976

Posted 28 July 2020 - 09:58 AM

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Holy crap! We are almost in August already. Geez! Talk about; "Time that goes by fast." :blink:

Yup which is the month I really start to get excited about fall and winter 😀

#12
Niko

Posted 28 July 2020 - 11:23 AM

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Yup which is the month I really start to get excited about fall and winter

Haha



#13
Tom

Posted 29 July 2020 - 02:33 AM

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Boy, not only are the models trending cooler in the near term, but also in the long term as we head into Week 2 of August.  Who wants a taste of some "Northwoods Air"???  From Sun-Wed, many of us will be enjoying crisp, cool, late summer weather and most definitely I could see people sparking up backyard bon fires!  Ahhh, I love the smell of burning wood and grilling sausage over a fire.

 

 

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#14
Tom

Posted 29 July 2020 - 03:12 AM

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Changes are brewing for this month and they may have some legs.  An extended period of much cooler weather is heading for the central/southern plains.  The latest CFSv2 is quite cool/wet for the ag belt and a lot of our members.  Sign me up!

 

Big time flip in our wx pattern coming up if the models are right...

 

CFSv2.NaT2m.20200729.202008.gif

 

CFSv2.NaPrec.20200729.202008.gif

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#15
james1976

Posted 29 July 2020 - 04:00 AM

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Sign me up. Maybe we will have a cooler August to make up for the hot July.
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#16
Tom

Posted 29 July 2020 - 08:11 AM

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12z ICON with some rather chilly temps on Tuesday for MI and places near the lakes...

 

icon_T2m_ncus_52.png


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#17
james1976

Posted 29 July 2020 - 08:17 AM

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12z ICON with some rather chilly temps on Tuesday for MI and places near the lakes...

icon_T2m_ncus_52.png

Mid afternoon on Aug 4th with mid 70s over this way? I can already smell the bonfire I'm gonna have. BRING IT ON
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#18
Niko

Posted 29 July 2020 - 11:07 AM

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FL needs to keep their guards on for the potential of a strong "Tropical System" affecting the state this upcoming weekend. Most of Fl will get impacted w Isaiah. Maybe a Hurricane. Afterwards, the EC needs to watch this.



#19
Tom

Posted 30 July 2020 - 03:33 AM

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While combing through a lot of data this morning, I'm tickled with excitement at how this pattern is evolving for this coming month.  August 2017 really sticks out to me when comparing what the models are showing in terms of temps/precip across the nation.  Take a look at what happened back then and compare it to the next 28 days off the JMA/CFSv2/Euro Weeklies.

 

 

August '17 Temp departure...

 

 

Aug17TDeptUS.png

 

 

August '17 Precip departure...clearly, there is a common denominator whereby you have a very wet southern half of the U.S. and Upper MW.

 

Aug17PDeptUS.png

 

 

 

 

The JMA weeklies look almost like a carbon copy but a bit drier up north.

 

Temps...

 

 

Y202007.D2912_gl2.png

 

 

Precip...

 

Y202007.D2912_gl0.png

 

 

 

Could you get a closer comparing the CFSv2 weeklies with 2017???  Crazy similarities.  Euro weeklies show a similar tune but warmer and drier as usual.  This summer it has been way off in the LR anyway but it slowly corrects as time gets closer.

 

So what does this all mean???  Get ready to finish summer off with comfortable weather and I'm sure there will be delighted farmers.

 

 

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#20
snowstorm83

Posted 30 July 2020 - 07:42 AM

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Highs now have been lowered to the mid to upper 70s for the first week of August. That's about as nice as it gets for basically still the heart of summer. I can already tell it's going to be another steaming hot September now lol. 


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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 


#21
OKwx2k4

Posted 30 July 2020 - 10:18 AM

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If i get anything but average weather after this week, the euro will be spot on.

"Shortest" summer in 14 years.

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#22
james1976

Posted 30 July 2020 - 11:33 AM

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My extended has 75 for a high Monday and a low of 53 Monday night!
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#23
weatherfan2012

Posted 30 July 2020 - 02:31 PM

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Changes are brewing for this month and they may have some legs.  An extended period of much cooler weather is heading for the central/southern plains.  The latest CFSv2 is quite cool/wet for the ag belt and a lot of our members.  Sign me up!
 
Big time flip in our wx pattern coming up if the models are right...
 
CFSv2.NaT2m.20200729.202008.gif
 
CFSv2.NaPrec.20200729.202008.gif

that pattern could be a problem on the eastern seaboard as we get into the meat of the hurricane season with the maine trough in the mid west ohio vally could spell some east coast hurricane threats.
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#24
FAR_Weather

Posted 30 July 2020 - 03:16 PM

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that pattern could be a problem on the eastern seaboard as we get into the meat of the hurricane season with the maine trough in the mid west ohio vally could spell some east coast hurricane threats.


Already looks like there may be a coast hugger next week.
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>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#25
OKwx2k4

Posted 30 July 2020 - 04:46 PM

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Already looks like there may be a coast hugger next week.


Been seeing and thinking the same as you guys. Looks like a rough late hurricane season incoming on the EC and even NE US. Been a few years for those folks up there.
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#26
weatherfan2012

Posted 30 July 2020 - 04:58 PM

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Already looks like there may be a coast hugger next week.

certernly right about that.

#27
james1976

Posted 31 July 2020 - 07:46 AM

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Forecast low of 52 for Monday night and 51 Tuesday night!
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#28
Niko

Posted 31 July 2020 - 09:25 AM

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All eyes on Isaiah as it will give FL a beating and then track up the EC. The Bermuda High will help stir it near the coast. Heads up next week.



#29
Tom

Posted 01 August 2020 - 03:11 AM

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It was another very wet day yesterday across the S MW....is there a repeat system for next weekend???  Based on the 00z EPS, it looks like another soaker is in the works late next week.  There is also an upper level wave that tracks out of the N Rockies and into the central Plains mid next week that may spark some active wx to provide some moisture.

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#30
westMJim

Posted 01 August 2020 - 05:39 AM

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Preliminary July 2020 wrap. July 2020 will go into the history books as one of the warmest Julys in recorded history. Here at Grand Rapids it was the 7th warmest July tied with 1919 with a mean of 75.7° The high for the month was 94 on the 3rd and 7th  There were 10 days where the temperature was 90 or better.  The low for the month was 58 on the 14th.  The official rain fall for the month was 4.75” At Muskegon July 2020 was the 2nd warmest in recorded history with a mean of 76.0  The high for the month there was 92 on the 2nd and 4th and the low was 55 on the 14th They recorded 2.28” of rain fall. Down at Kalamazoo with a July mean of 76.7 came in with a 4 way tie for the 7th warmest July tied with 2011, 1977 and 1931. And to our east at Lansing it was the 7th warmest on record with a mean of 75.8. And at Lansing records have been kept since 1863.



#31
FAR_Weather

Posted 01 August 2020 - 06:27 AM

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The days are getting shorter faster. Today, the sun sets at 8:59. On Monday August 10, it sets at 8:45.
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>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#32
Niko

Posted 01 August 2020 - 07:12 AM

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Perfect setup and track had it been Winter for a shutdown snowstorm here in SEMI. I hope this is the beginning. Anyways, back to reality. A storm coming from the south will pound the area w hvy rain. If it tracks a  little more west, I get more rainfall. So far, 1-2" is forecasted. Lots of flooding expected. Looks like the "Drought Monitor" will erase the "Moderately Dry" color by next week when they update the state.


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#33
Niko

Posted 01 August 2020 - 07:14 AM

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Attm, clouds are increasing ahead of a major storm system coming from the south. Temp is at 76F w muggy conditions.



#34
Niko

Posted 01 August 2020 - 07:14 AM

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Flash Flood Watch
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
351 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020


MIZ048-049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-012030-
/O.NEW.KDTX.FF.A.0004.200802T0000Z-200802T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Bay City, Bad Axe, Saginaw, Caro,
Sandusky, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac,
Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
351 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for a portion of southeast Michigan,
  including the following areas, Bay, Genesee, Huron, Lapeer,
  Lenawee, Livingston, Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, Saginaw, Sanilac,
  Shiawassee, St. Clair, Tuscola, Washtenaw, and Wayne.

* From this evening through Sunday afternoon

* Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread tonight and
  persist through Sunday morning. Rainfall rates in excess of an
  inch an hour are possible with some of these showers and
  thunderstorms.

* Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected over much of
  the area. Locally higher rainfall totals are likely.


#35
Niko

Posted 01 August 2020 - 07:20 AM

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Lets not forget about Hurricane Isaiah. EC residents need to monitor this storm.

 

Here is a live stream from Port Nassau Bahamas........

 

https://www.portnassauwebcam.com/



#36
james1976

Posted 01 August 2020 - 08:28 AM

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Des Moines NWS is saying lows in the 40s for N IA is possible next week 😊 Amazing for the first week of August!
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#37
Tom

Posted 01 August 2020 - 09:03 AM

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The days are getting shorter faster. Today, the sun sets at 8:59. On Monday August 10, it sets at 8:45.


I’m going to ask you how much more noticeable the sun angle is during late Dec and into Jan compared to when you were living in NE. Your one of the farthest north members and since you’ve lived in both locals, curious to hear your feedback.
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#38
FAR_Weather

Posted 01 August 2020 - 09:33 AM

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I’m going to ask you how much more noticeable the sun angle is during late Dec and into Jan compared to when you were living in NE. Your one of the farthest north members and since you’ve lived in both locals, curious to hear your feedback.

I do know from pics that it has gotten into the mid-20s here in full sun during early January without any melting on side streets. I'm eager to see for myself.

 

Beltrami Island is the northernmost member we have, afaik.


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>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#39
Niko

Posted 01 August 2020 - 11:14 AM

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Cloudy skies w light showers starting to move in. Temp is at 71F. It will be a rainy weekend. :D



#40
gabel23

Posted 01 August 2020 - 07:48 PM

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*
POPULAR

Hello from the Black hills of South Dakota! Never been here before and up here with the in-laws; what a geologic wonder! Took a train today from Hill City to Keystone and the outcrop of limestone and granite is crazy. Also had a cave tour around Mount Rushmore and seeing the limestone melt was amazing. Here until Tuesday and looking at highs in the 70’s and low in the 40’s. The place we are staying in has no central air conditioning!! Windows open and smelling that cool air is icing on the cake!
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#41
FAR_Weather

Posted 02 August 2020 - 03:29 AM

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Beautiful morning, windows open. Completely clear and 57°F.
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>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#42
westMJim

Posted 02 August 2020 - 04:09 AM

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Recorded 0.77" of rain here overnight. Still getting light rain falling with a current temperature of 65.



#43
james1976

Posted 02 August 2020 - 07:53 AM

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Forecast low of 49 for Monday night!

#44
Niko

Posted 02 August 2020 - 09:56 AM

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Light rain currently w temps at 68F. A rainy, cool day! :D

 

Man, its funny how that heat switched off instantly as soon as August arrived. Totally different weather pattern now. Feels like Autumn! Highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s , w a few upper 40s in the colder spots by midweek (W ton of sunshine), b4 the 80s return by the upcoming weekend. No 90s are in the extended outlook as for now.



#45
Niko

Posted 02 August 2020 - 10:02 AM

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Family and friends of mine in NYC are bracing for TS condition's early next week. L.I looks to be in the hot spot as for now.



#46
CentralNebWeather

Posted 02 August 2020 - 10:42 AM

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Forecast low of 53 tonight. Yes sir.

#47
Tom

Posted 02 August 2020 - 10:42 AM

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Watching our astronauts return to earth and getting hit by a tiny cell that is producing strong downdrafts!  Awesome day!

 

 

 

LOT.N0Q.20200802.1841.gif



#48
Niko

Posted 02 August 2020 - 11:29 AM

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Europe under a major heatwave. London, where my cousin lives, told me just recently, that they broke all time record high of 100F. Others cities, such as Paris, Rome, Madrid, just to name a few, are breaking records as well. Surprisingly, Athens, Greece is only in the 90s.


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#49
james1976

Posted 02 August 2020 - 12:15 PM

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Currently 75 with a 52 dew!

#50
james1976

Posted 02 August 2020 - 02:35 PM

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Only a few days of this and it's right back to the 88 and humid crap.