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August 2020 Observations and Discussion


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As we wind down what has been a very hot and steamy July, where nearly all of us fried, what shall we expect for the last month of met Summer???  I know I may speak on behalf of many of you on this board, but I think we need a break from the oppressive heat and humidity for a while.  Well, low and hold, there is strong indication that the wx pattern overall for our Sub will indeed change in a dramatic way.  In fact, it already has begun for our central members and will extend east throughout the rest of this week.

 

Let's dive in....

 

 

Last night's 00z GEFS and EPS have a large pocket of cool to rule the central ag belt to open up the first full week of August...

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_6.png

 

 

 

 

The interesting wx system that will contribute to this cool down next week is a very rare late summer storm system.  Actually, come to think of it, over the past couple summers we have seen these rare storms deliver appreciable precip.  This particular storm has that CO Low track that dips south and cuts up towards the lower lakes!  Pretty cool to see.

 

 

 

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Don't usually post here in the summer but todays winds are worthy. 133000 customers with no power at peak (do the math- that's all of DSM metro and burbs) What got me was that 50 mph winds lasted near

I had to rub my eyes when I saw these temps for the opening days of September...@CentralNeb, the Euro is making your wish come true...daytime highs in the 60's???  @Fargo, your gonna feel the Autumn c

Hello from the Black hills of South Dakota! Never been here before and up here with the in-laws; what a geologic wonder! Took a train today from Hill City to Keystone and the outcrop of limestone and

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As we wind down what has been a very hot and steamy July, where nearly all of us fried, what shall we expect for the last month of met Summer??? I know I may speak on behalf of many of you on this board, but I think we need a break from the oppressive heat and humidity for a while. Well, low and hold, there is strong indication that the wx pattern overall for our Sub will indeed change in a dramatic way. In fact, it already has begun for our central members and will extend east throughout the rest of this week.

 

Let's dive in....

 

 

Last night's 00z GEFS and EPS have a large pocket of cool to rule the central ag belt to open up the first full week of August...

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_6.png

 

 

 

 

The interesting wx system that will contribute to this cool down next week is a very rare late summer storm system. Actually, come to think of it, over the past couple summers we have seen these rare storms deliver appreciable precip. This particular storm has that CO Low track that dips south and cuts up towards the lower lakes! Pretty cool to see.

What a way to close out July and open Aug. Mid 80s. That's a difference from many seasons. Be the first time its actually showed up for me and closed down the hottest part. Lol.

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As we wind down what has been a very hot and steamy July, where nearly all of us fried, what shall we expect for the last month of met Summer??? I know I may speak on behalf of many of you on this board, but I think we need a break from the oppressive heat and humidity for a while. Well, low and hold, there is strong indication that the wx pattern overall for our Sub will indeed change in a dramatic way. In fact, it already has begun for our central members and will extend east throughout the rest of this week.

 

Let's dive in....

 

 

Last night's 00z GEFS and EPS have a large pocket of cool to rule the central ag belt to open up the first full week of August...

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_6.png

 

 

 

 

The interesting wx system that will contribute to this cool down next week is a very rare late summer storm system. Actually, come to think of it, over the past couple summers we have seen these rare storms deliver appreciable precip. This particular storm has that CO Low track that dips south and cuts up towards the lower lakes! Pretty cool to see.

That is a really cool map. Hope this verifies

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Boy, last night's 00z Euro has daytime highs in the low/mid 70's for a few days next week across the eastern MW into the GL's region.  What a way to open up a new month, ay???  This is going to feel like bonafide early Autumn with DP's in the 40's!  Models continue to extend the cooler trend into Week 2 of August.

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Boy, last night's 00z Euro has daytime highs in the low/mid 70's for a few days next week across the eastern MW into the GL's region. What a way to open up a new month, ay??? This is going to feel like bonafide early Autumn with DP's in the 40's! Models continue to extend the cooler trend into Week 2 of August.

Is it far enough west to get me in?
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The extended certainly looks very nice.  I just wish it came with some good rain.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Boy, not only are the models trending cooler in the near term, but also in the long term as we head into Week 2 of August.  Who wants a taste of some "Northwoods Air"???  From Sun-Wed, many of us will be enjoying crisp, cool, late summer weather and most definitely I could see people sparking up backyard bon fires!  Ahhh, I love the smell of burning wood and grilling sausage over a fire.

 

 

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Changes are brewing for this month and they may have some legs.  An extended period of much cooler weather is heading for the central/southern plains.  The latest CFSv2 is quite cool/wet for the ag belt and a lot of our members.  Sign me up!

 

Big time flip in our wx pattern coming up if the models are right...

 

CFSv2.NaT2m.20200729.202008.gif

 

CFSv2.NaPrec.20200729.202008.gif

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FL needs to keep their guards on for the potential of a strong "Tropical System" affecting the state this upcoming weekend. Most of Fl will get impacted w Isaiah. Maybe a Hurricane. Afterwards, the EC needs to watch this.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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While combing through a lot of data this morning, I'm tickled with excitement at how this pattern is evolving for this coming month.  August 2017 really sticks out to me when comparing what the models are showing in terms of temps/precip across the nation.  Take a look at what happened back then and compare it to the next 28 days off the JMA/CFSv2/Euro Weeklies.

 

 

August '17 Temp departure...

 

 

Aug17TDeptUS.png

 

 

August '17 Precip departure...clearly, there is a common denominator whereby you have a very wet southern half of the U.S. and Upper MW.

 

Aug17PDeptUS.png

 

 

 

 

The JMA weeklies look almost like a carbon copy but a bit drier up north.

 

Temps...

 

 

Y202007.D2912_gl2.png

 

 

Precip...

 

Y202007.D2912_gl0.png

 

 

 

Could you get a closer comparing the CFSv2 weeklies with 2017???  Crazy similarities.  Euro weeklies show a similar tune but warmer and drier as usual.  This summer it has been way off in the LR anyway but it slowly corrects as time gets closer.

 

So what does this all mean???  Get ready to finish summer off with comfortable weather and I'm sure there will be delighted farmers.

 

 

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Highs now have been lowered to the mid to upper 70s for the first week of August. That's about as nice as it gets for basically still the heart of summer. I can already tell it's going to be another steaming hot September now lol. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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Changes are brewing for this month and they may have some legs.  An extended period of much cooler weather is heading for the central/southern plains.  The latest CFSv2 is quite cool/wet for the ag belt and a lot of our members.  Sign me up!

 

Big time flip in our wx pattern coming up if the models are right...

 

CFSv2.NaT2m.20200729.202008.gif

 

CFSv2.NaPrec.20200729.202008.gif

that pattern could be a problem on the eastern seaboard as we get into the meat of the hurricane season with the maine trough in the mid west ohio vally could spell some east coast hurricane threats.
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that pattern could be a problem on the eastern seaboard as we get into the meat of the hurricane season with the maine trough in the mid west ohio vally could spell some east coast hurricane threats.

Already looks like there may be a coast hugger next week.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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It was another very wet day yesterday across the S MW....is there a repeat system for next weekend???  Based on the 00z EPS, it looks like another soaker is in the works late next week.  There is also an upper level wave that tracks out of the N Rockies and into the central Plains mid next week that may spark some active wx to provide some moisture.

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Preliminary July 2020 wrap. July 2020 will go into the history books as one of the warmest Julys in recorded history. Here at Grand Rapids it was the 7th warmest July tied with 1919 with a mean of 75.7° The high for the month was 94 on the 3rd and 7th  There were 10 days where the temperature was 90 or better.  The low for the month was 58 on the 14th.  The official rain fall for the month was 4.75” At Muskegon July 2020 was the 2nd warmest in recorded history with a mean of 76.0  The high for the month there was 92 on the 2nd and 4th and the low was 55 on the 14th They recorded 2.28” of rain fall. Down at Kalamazoo with a July mean of 76.7 came in with a 4 way tie for the 7th warmest July tied with 2011, 1977 and 1931. And to our east at Lansing it was the 7th warmest on record with a mean of 75.8. And at Lansing records have been kept since 1863.

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The days are getting shorter faster. Today, the sun sets at 8:59. On Monday August 10, it sets at 8:45.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Perfect setup and track had it been Winter for a shutdown snowstorm here in SEMI. I hope this is the beginning. Anyways, back to reality. A storm coming from the south will pound the area w hvy rain. If it tracks a  little more west, I get more rainfall. So far, 1-2" is forecasted. Lots of flooding expected. Looks like the "Drought Monitor" will erase the "Moderately Dry" color by next week when they update the state.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

351 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020

 

 

MIZ048-049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-012030-

/O.NEW.KDTX.FF.A.0004.200802T0000Z-200802T1800Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-

St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-

Including the cities of Bay City, Bad Axe, Saginaw, Caro,

Sandusky, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac,

Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe

351 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020

 

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY

AFTERNOON...

 

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a

 

* Flash Flood Watch for a portion of southeast Michigan,

including the following areas, Bay, Genesee, Huron, Lapeer,

Lenawee, Livingston, Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, Saginaw, Sanilac,

Shiawassee, St. Clair, Tuscola, Washtenaw, and Wayne.

 

* From this evening through Sunday afternoon

 

* Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread tonight and

persist through Sunday morning. Rainfall rates in excess of an

inch an hour are possible with some of these showers and

thunderstorms.

 

* Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected over much of

the area. Locally higher rainfall totals are likely.

 

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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The days are getting shorter faster. Today, the sun sets at 8:59. On Monday August 10, it sets at 8:45.

I’m going to ask you how much more noticeable the sun angle is during late Dec and into Jan compared to when you were living in NE. Your one of the farthest north members and since you’ve lived in both locals, curious to hear your feedback.

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I’m going to ask you how much more noticeable the sun angle is during late Dec and into Jan compared to when you were living in NE. Your one of the farthest north members and since you’ve lived in both locals, curious to hear your feedback.

I do know from pics that it has gotten into the mid-20s here in full sun during early January without any melting on side streets. I'm eager to see for myself.

 

Beltrami Island is the northernmost member we have, afaik.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Hello from the Black hills of South Dakota! Never been here before and up here with the in-laws; what a geologic wonder! Took a train today from Hill City to Keystone and the outcrop of limestone and granite is crazy. Also had a cave tour around Mount Rushmore and seeing the limestone melt was amazing. Here until Tuesday and looking at highs in the 70’s and low in the 40’s. The place we are staying in has no central air conditioning!! Windows open and smelling that cool air is icing on the cake!

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Beautiful morning, windows open. Completely clear and 57°F.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Light rain currently w temps at 68F. A rainy, cool day! :D

 

Man, its funny how that heat switched off instantly as soon as August arrived. Totally different weather pattern now. Feels like Autumn! Highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s , w a few upper 40s in the colder spots by midweek (W ton of sunshine), b4 the 80s return by the upcoming weekend. No 90s are in the extended outlook as for now.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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Europe under a major heatwave. London, where my cousin lives, told me just recently, that they broke all time record high of 100F. Others cities, such as Paris, Rome, Madrid, just to name a few, are breaking records as well. Surprisingly, Athens, Greece is only in the 90s.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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