December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Snowman5678]

Weird, winds around you have gusted to a whopping 17 MPH.

 

There is nothing moving in that would cause more than light breezy conditions.

 

Yeah I know, I wish my station was in a better spot because it sucks at wind readings where it is. Highest gust it has recorded is 21 which is decently strong considering it is blocked. By my estimate winds gusting 35-45mph. 

[GHweatherChris]

Yeah I know, I wish my station was in a better spot because it sucks at wind readings where it is. Highest gust it has recorded is 21 which is decently strong considering it is blocked. By my estimate winds gusting 35-45mph. 

Doubtful tonight, things are stagnant until the front moves through towards morning.

[Snow]

What are you trying to show here?  They look identical.  No cold!!!!

 

It is colder 300 miles offshore than here.

 

I mean what the 00z GFS operational shows is identical to the EURO weekly. The EURO control runs are the ones which show the upper level high more west. They were posted last night.

[Snowman5678]

Doubtful tonight, things are stagnant until the front moves through towards morning.

 

I'm on an exposed ridge so I usually get pretty wind really quickly. For some reason my little area gets good east winds while areas a couple miles away get none at all. North Bend has stations gusting between 24-39mph. Idk, I wasn't expecting the winds at all tonight. Next time I take the dogs out maybe ill take some video/audio of it.

[Snowman5678]

WRF also has 30-35 knot east wind gusts in my area. 

 

[GHweatherChris]

WRF also has 30-35 knot east wind gusts in my area. 

 

GFS.PNG

Nothing there to cause brown outs.

[Jesse]

A chilly, wet day out here. 38/35. The cold air has been very stubborn.

 

If we had gone into the pattern the past few days about 5 degrees colder it would have been a crippling ice storm out this way.

[snow_wizard]

CFS is still looking great for cold after the 20th...extending thru mid January.

 

 

 

 

 

10 day means over 5C below normal for Western WA.  Really impressive!  It really seems to be picking up on a big positive anomaly over the Bering Sea in the time frame shown.

[snow_wizard]

Weird, winds around you have gusted to a whopping 17 MPH.

 

There is nothing moving in that would cause more than light breezy conditions.

 

The winds in east King County are far different than what you get there.  The worst windstorms I've had here have been on clear days.  In those cases it usually blows for 30 to 48 hours straight.  Tonight it's a bit breezy but nothing to write home about here.

[snow_wizard]

Looking at the MJO the GFS indicates the wave will be in octant 3 in about 3 weeks and the ECMF shows octant 4 in about 2 weeks.  During the winter most of our really good events come with the MJO somewhere in the 3 to 7 range.

[snow_wizard]

Some places which are exposed to E to SE winds tonight are pushing in the 55 to 60 degree range.  The crazy temperature roller coaster continues.

[snow_wizard]

I know this has nothing to do with anything we are talking about right now, but I just found some astonishing information from July 1901.  I have a long term project I'm working on to transcribe the Seattle weather records onto the Excel spreadsheet that I like so much and found some pretty chilly looking low temps so I looked at records for Snoqualmie Falls and Sedro Woolley for that month.  As it turns out July 1901 had multiple low temps below 40 including one sub freezing min at both stations.  Snoqualmie dropped to 30 on the 12th and Sedro Woolley shows 31 on the 11th.

 

I cannot even imagine the upper level pattern it would take to cause that so deep into the summer.  Such an occurrence would be devastating to agriculture if it were to repeat.

 

I'm sure wxstatman will appreciate the incredible rarity of this and knowing him he probably already knows about it.  No doubt this climate is capable of producing great surprises at pretty much any time of year.

[GHweatherChris]

The winds in east King County are far different than what you get there.  The worst windstorms I've had here have been on clear days.  In those cases it usually blows for 30 to 48 hours straight.  Tonight it's a bit breezy but nothing to write home about here.

I wasn't comparing my area to there at all.

 

There is no winds in Western Washington tonight that would casue brown outs, that is what I was talking about.

[MossMan]

Currently 46 degrees and rather blustery this morning.

That is all.

[Tyler Mode]

Here is a webcam picture from Trout Lake yesterday.

 

You can clearly see a lot of ice.

[Tyler Mode]

Today it has switched back to snow at Trout Lake. 

 

Obviously the upper levels are finally cooling some.  Too bad there wasn't more snow for the mountains.

[Snowman5678]

I wasn't comparing my area to there at all.

 

There is no winds in Western Washington tonight that would casue brown outs, that is what I was talking about.

 

Oh well the 2 brownouts are probably just due to some branches that hit the powerlines in the right spot. Who knows

[ShawniganLake]

Oh well the 2 brownouts are probably just due to some branches that hit the powerlines in the right spot. Who knows

What is a brown out?

[MossMan]

What is a brown out?

When your power dims and flickers but doesn't go out completely! Not nessasarily something you do in your pants when you see a Jan 1950 setup showing up in the models. But Could happen.

[ShawniganLake]

When your power dims and flickers but doesn't go out completely! Not nessasarily something you do in your pants when you see a Jan 1950 setup showing up in the models. But Could happen.

Thanks.  Never heard anyone around here call that a brownout.  We just say the lights or power flickered.

[MossMan]

Thanks. Never heard anyone around here call that a brownout. We just say the lights or power flickered.

I think it might be an east coast term? Yeah I just call it surges or flickering.

[Tyler Mode]

First westerly flow in a while kicked in around 6 AM. Temp went from 42 up to 48 rather quickly.

 

Its going to switch at Crown Point soon too, for the first time in over a week.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=D6193&table=1&banner=off

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Today it has switched back to snow at Trout Lake. 

 

Obviously the upper levels are finally cooling some.  Too bad there wasn't more snow for the mountains.

 

Beautiful

[snow_wizard]

This would be really good news for us.  Once again the GFS and ECMWF handle the MJO in entirely different ways.  Lately the ECMWF has bee the superior model by far in that regard.  If the GFS is wrong on the MJO it can't be right about the mid latitude pattern progression.  On another note an MJO progression such as this is more typical of a La Nina than a Nino.

 

[Phil]

Looking at the MJO the GFS indicates the wave will be in octant 3 in about 3 weeks and the ECMF shows octant 4 in about 2 weeks. During the winter most of our really good events come with the MJO somewhere in the 3 to 7 range.

I'm not seeing that..VP200 anomalies are a better tool to use than those phase diagrams..you're just seeing a boatload of high frequency CCKW contamination

[Guest daniel1]

This would be really good news for us.  Once again the GFS and ECMWF handle the MJO in entirely different ways.  Lately the ECMWF has bee the superior model by far in that regard.  If the GFS is wrong on the MJO it can't be right about the mid latitude pattern progression.  On another note an MJO progression such as this is more typical of a La Nina than a Nino.

 

Luckily the bias corrected version looks like what should happen and makes better sense

[Tyler Mode]

The south wind finally broke through at Crown Point.

39 at 10:17, 46 at 10:27

It won't last long as the GFS shows east wind returning overnight...

[Snowman5678]

Thanks.  Never heard anyone around here call that a brownout.  We just say the lights or power flickered.

 

Thanks Mossman! Yeah a brownout is when the lights/power flickers and dims and stuff but doesn't go completely out. I don't hear a lot of people call them brownouts out here so it may be an east coast term. It sounds normal to me.

[snow_wizard]

I'm not seeing that..VP200 anomalies are a better tool to use than those phase diagrams..you're just seeing a boatload of high frequency CCKW contamination

 

Be that as it may the phase diagrams have been a very good tool for forecasting cold events here in the recent past.

[snow_wizard]

Luckily the bias corrected version looks like what should happen and makes better sense

 

Could you post what that is looking like?  At this point I have no real reason to doubt the forecast I posted as it has been pretty accurate lately.

 

And what do you mean by luckily?

[snow_wizard]

Thanks Mossman! Yeah a brownout is when the lights/power flickers and dims and stuff but doesn't go completely out. I don't hear a lot of people call them brownouts out here so it may be an east coast term. It sounds normal to me.

 

I have heard that sometimes on the east coast the power grid gets so loaded down that the voltage being delivered is below the normal 110 to 120V.  As a result things run slower and bulbs burn dimmer than they normally do.  That's another definition of a brown out.

[Phil]

Be that as it may the phase diagrams have been a very good tool for forecasting cold events here in the recent past.

Maybe, but there are no indications of anything significant out your way until January, in my opinion. We're likely going to enter a +PNA/-EPO/-NAM regime before the retrograde

[snow_wizard]

Maybe, but there are no indications of anything significant out your way until January, in my opinion. We're likely going to enter a +PNA/-EPO/-NAM regime before the retrograde

 

You may well be right, but the last week of December could deliver.  At this point the GFS likes the idea of a ridge centered over the center of the country followed by a retrogression to a Western ridge later in week two.  One more retrogression step would be show time for us.  Going to be fun to see how it unfolds.  So far your call for a big nationwide torch this month has / will be proven quite correct, save the cold in some areas the first few days of the month.

[snow_wizard]

A lot more spread starting to show up on the 12z GFS ensemble.  At the end 850s range from -8 to +13 for Seattle.  There are a fair number that show a minor cold shot centered around the 18th or so.

[IbrChris]

I'll take a repeat of the Jan 1888 double arctic blast:

Jan 2
Astoria 39/36 .18

Portland 42/32 .27

Eola 36/32 .51

Newport 41/34 .23

The Dalles 34/32 .39

Jan 3
Astoria 36/30 .04

Portland 36/30 .13

Eola 34/26

Newport 42/30 .06

The Dalles 36/25 .20

Jan 4
Astoria 35/30
Portland 38/26

Eola 30/25

Newport 36/26 .14

The Dalles 37/22 .06

 

Jan 5
Astoria 33/26
Portland 28/20

Eola 26/18

Newport 32/21

The Dalles 23/10

Jan 6

Astoria 30/20
Portland 25/17

Eola 25/15

Newport 31/18

The Dalles 13/-3

Jan 7
Astoria 29/21
Portland 24/12

Eola 21/11

Newport 32/18

The Dalles 9/-6

Jan 8

Astoria 30/21
Portland 21/10

Eola 22/11

Newport 32/19

The Dalles 6/-10

 

Jan 9

Astoria 34/22

Portland 21/10

Eola 21/10

Newport 37/20

The Dalles 9/-6

Jan 10
Astoria 35/28
Portland 28/12

Eola 28/18

Newport 42/26

The Dalles 18/3

Jan 11
Astoria 43/33 .40

Portland 42/7

Eola 41/35 .36

Newport 46/31 .14

The Dalles 37/7

Jan 12
Astoria 41/30 .24
Portland 44/28 .22
Eola 39/27 .38 (2.5" snow)

Newport 46/29 .15

The Dalles 44/28 .08

 

Jan 13

Olympia 22/11

Astoria 30/14
Portland 36/11

Eola 14/5 (difference in obs time?)

Newport 34/13 .06

The Dalles 15/-4

Jan 14

Olympia 21/1
Astoria 22/13
Portland 15/4

Eola 13/-5

Newport 25/7

The Dalles 4/-10

Jan 15

Olympia 20/-2
Astoria 19/10
Portland 9/-2

Eola 13/0

Newport 20/1

The Dalles 2/-14

Jan 16

Olympia 18/3
Astoria 16/10
Portland 10/0 .13 (2.5" snow)

Eola 14/-1 .51 (2.8" snow)

Newport 30/5

The Dalles -1/-14 .04

Jan 17
Astoria 44/16 .96
Portland 22/6 .48 (6" snow)

Eola 40/27

Newport 44/27 .31

The Dalles 12/-4 .24

Jan 18
Astoria 41/33 .22
Portland 28/8

Eola 39/16

Newport 44/30

The Dalles 10/-10

Jan 19
Astoria 36/32
Portland 33/14

Eola 32/28

Newport 43/33

The Dalles 25/2

Jan 20
Astoria 38/29 .28
Portland 30/20 .06 (1.5" snow)

Eola 27/25 .64 (3.5" snow)

Newport 39/29 .15

The Dalles 26/16 .13

Jan 21
Astoria 44/28 1.04
Portland 32/19 .39 (no snow)

Eola 42/26 .47

Portland 47/30 ,44

The Dalles 26/13 .06

Jan 22
Astoria 42/34 .16

Portland 35/19 .22 (no snow)

Eola 44/43 .71

Newport 50/41 .44

The Dalles 30/13

Jan 23
Astoria 50/40 1.20
Portland 49/20 .47 (no snow)

Eola 48/42 .48

Newport 52/44 .51

The Dalles 28/16 .11 (16.0" snow for the month)

[snow_wizard]

Pressure gradients look perfect for max radiation cooling in the Seattle area tonight if the muck is able to clear out.  The WRF suggests mostly clear for part of the night and then high thin clouds later on.

 

Amazingly I have yet to score a freezing low temp with the typical clear night / light wind situation this season.  All of the freezing low temps have bee associated with cold  / dry air continental air masses.  Pretty rare.

[Tyler Mode]

It's hard to believe fog won't form though.

 

Especially with the relatively cool ground now, and warm air overriding it.

Pressure gradients look perfect for max radiation cooling in the Seattle area tonight if the muck is able to clear out.  The WRF suggests mostly clear for part of the night and then high thin clouds later on.

 

Amazingly I have yet to score a freezing low temp with the typical clear night / light wind situation this season.  All of the freezing low temps have bee associated with cold  / dry air continental air masses.  Pretty rare.

[snow_wizard]

I'll take a repeat of the Jan 1888 double arctic blast:

 

 

 

That was a nice event for sure, although the Puget Sound region has had better.  The records I have for the Central Puget Sound shows a 17/2 day with 6 inches of snow, and a low of -2 the day before that.  That is certainly top tier stuff.

[snow_wizard]

It's hard to believe fog won't form though.

 

Especially with the relatively cool ground now, and warm air overriding it.

 

Yeah...in this area fog is quite likely with the modest straight easterly gradient being shown.  Pulling off a freeze probably won't be easy.

[Guest daniel1]

Could you post what that is looking like?  At this point I have no real reason to doubt the forecast I posted as it has been pretty accurate lately.

 

And what do you mean by luckily?