Omegaraptor Posted June 28, 2022 Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: I honestly don't care that much. There is a station literally down the road from my house in my neighborhood. And lots of them in North Bend. I know what is happening here. Feel like citing rainfall statistics 5 times a day would be a bit more fun if it was your own statistics. But North Bend has lots of data and you are just a 3 minute walk from the valley floor so your data should be similar. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 28, 2022 Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 Just now, TT-SEA said: FWIW... the GFS is not that bad within 7 day. The 00Z ICON looks quite similar for next Monday. The stuff beyond day 7 looks silly on the GFS. But we don't need that ULL to back up that much to have decent weather either. I’m willing to put my junk on the line again. This is so obvious it hurts to look at. And the GFS scores the worst of all the global numerical models inside 5 days at 500mb. We’d be better off without it. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted June 28, 2022 Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: It wants to put lows into the gulf of alaska so bad it literally pulls it in the opposite direction. Why on earth is this model so janky Just proof the earth is trying to spin in the other direction. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted June 28, 2022 Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said: Sorry dude, prayers for you and yours. Thanks. She's 92, so something like this is not a total surprise. But you still never expect it when it finally happens. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 Just now, Omegaraptor said: Feel like citing rainfall statistics 5 times a day would be a bit more fun if it was your own statistics. But North Bend has lots of data and you are just a 3 minute walk from the valley floor so your data should be similar. I don't have 125 years of history here in my backyard. Big difference. Saying it was wetter than 2021 is not too impressive. 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted June 28, 2022 Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: FWIW... the GFS is not that bad within 7 days. The 00Z ICON looks quite similar for next Monday. The stuff beyond day 7 looks silly on the GFS. But we don't need that ULL to back up that much to have decent weather either. ICON looks great. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted June 28, 2022 Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: No thunder here, at least not yet. May see some in a few days in New Mexico. Unfortunately that trip is because suddenly it’s looking like my mother is not going to be around much longer. So sorry. Will be praying for the best for your family. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted June 28, 2022 Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Thanks. She's 92, so something like this is not a total surprise. But you still never expect it when it finally happens. That's a good life. I hope I live to 92. 3 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Phil said: I’m willing to put my junk on the line again. This is so obvious it hurts to look at. And the GFS scores the worst of all the global numerical models inside 5 days at 500mb. We’d be better off without it. Oh yeah... the stuff beyond day 7 is silliness and won't happen. Its still in the ballpark on day 7 though. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted June 28, 2022 Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Thanks. She's 92, so something like this is not a total surprise. But you still never expect it when it finally happens. A mom is a special part of our lives, I pray it is peaceful and she is surrounded by as many loved ones as possible. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 Just now, BLI snowman said: ICON looks great. Dry Monday with a large ULL to the west. Same general pattern as the GFS shows. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 28, 2022 Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: It wants to put lows into the gulf of alaska so bad it literally pulls it in the opposite direction. Why on earth is this model so janky I don’t know what the heck is wrong with it, but cannot recall any global model spitting out such ridiculous solutions inside week-1, ever. Not even 15 years ago. Closest thing I can remember is the DGEX (which was a decade ago and more of an experimental extension of the NAM). There’s something seriously wrong with this model. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: No thunder here, at least not yet. May see some in a few days in New Mexico. Unfortunately that trip is because suddenly it’s looking like my mother is not going to be around much longer. So sorry to hear that... very sad. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 28, 2022 Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: No thunder here, at least not yet. May see some in a few days in New Mexico. Unfortunately that trip is because suddenly it’s looking like my mother is not going to be around much longer. Oh gosh dude, I’m so sorry. Sending a prayer your way. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted June 28, 2022 Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I don't have 125 years of history here in my backyard. Big difference. Saying it was wetter than 2021 is not too impressive. You don't even have 1 hour of data in your backyard. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said: You don't even have 1 hour of data in your backyard. Exactly! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted June 28, 2022 Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Oh yeah... the stuff beyond day 7 is silliness and won't happen. Its still in the ballpark on day 7 though. You went from the 4th doesn't matter just a few days ago to actually getting stressed about it all of a sudden due to how much you keep bringing it up. Didn't you say something about it doesn't matter since everyone has to work the next day this year... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted June 28, 2022 Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 68. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted June 28, 2022 Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 Is Tim the only forum member without a weather station? 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: You went from the 4th doesn't matter just a few days ago to actually getting stressed about it all of a sudden due to how much you keep bringing it up. Didn't you say something about it doesn't matter since everyone has to work the next day this year... Yep... we will probably do fireworks on Saturday in Sammamish But I have a bunch of people asking me about that day and I would like to give them good news. Interestingly... none of them are hoping and praying its raining and cold. Very strange. I assumed everyone wants miserable weather on a holiday based on the comments here. But the real world seems to be quite a bit different. I have zero confidence at this point... so won't be telling them anything yet. 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted June 28, 2022 Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 Warm air aloft still holding on a bit. though SEA is down to 71 and BFI 74. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted June 28, 2022 Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Yep... we will probably do fireworks on Saturday in Sammamish But I have a bunch of people asking me about that day and I would like to give them good news. Interestingly... none of them are hoping and praying its raining and cold. Very strange. I assumed everyone wants miserable weather on a holiday based on the comments here. But the real world seems to be quite a bit different. I have zero confidence at this point... so won't be telling them anything yet. Tell them the Sun will rise on the 4th and it will also set. Whether or not they get to see it is another story. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted June 28, 2022 Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 71* currently outside while inside the temp has maintained 81*! Marine push did not effectively scour the hot away inside my house 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 The 00Z GEM is also trending warmer and drier for Monday over the past 3 runs. The 00Z GEM is basically dry with a high around 70 which is not too bad. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 28, 2022 Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: The 00Z GEM is also trending warmer and drier for Monday over the past 3 runs. The 00Z GEM is basically dry with a high around 70 which is not too bad. The 00z CMC is cooler than the 12z, actually. No warm trend. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted June 28, 2022 Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 Well…. Our first heatwave of the season is in the book! Hope you all enjoyed it. I personally did! I can live with a couple days of hotness. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted June 28, 2022 Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Cloud said: Well…. Our first heatwave of the season is in the book! Hope you all enjoyed it. I personally did! I can live with a couple days of hotness. Down to 59 here now, and we finally have a good breeze!! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted June 28, 2022 Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 Still 80 in Portland, unless we cool 12+ degrees in 2 hours then we've had our very mild low of 68 for the day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted June 28, 2022 Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 11 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: 71* currently outside while inside the temp has maintained 81*! Marine push did not effectively scour the hot away inside my house Window fans are your friends. 2 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted June 28, 2022 Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Down to 59 here now, and we finally have a good breeze!! Kinda crazy this is 2 years in a row that we push up the mercury on the same day. Not so much for your location today but you did hit 100 over the weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, Phil said: The 00z CMC is cooler than the 12z, actually. No warm trend. 00Z run last night showed 64 in Seattle on Monday... the 12Z run showed 68... 00Z run shows 70. Trending warmer. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted June 28, 2022 Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 14 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: 71* currently outside while inside the temp has maintained 81*! Marine push did not effectively scour the hot away inside my house Pour cold martini all over the house! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 28, 2022 Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: 00Z run last night showed 64 in Seattle on Monday... the 12Z run showed 68... 00Z run shows 70. Trending warmer. 70 for Salem is very cool for 4th of July. About 12 degrees below average. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted June 28, 2022 Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Cloud said: Kinda crazy this is 2 years in a row that we push up the mercury on the same day. Not so much for your location today but you did hit 100 over the weekend 3 of the last 4 years have had +90 days in June…and 4 of the last 6. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 28, 2022 Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: 00Z run last night showed 64 in Seattle on Monday... the 12Z run showed 68... 00Z run shows 70. Trending warmer. Here’s 00z vs 12z on July 4th. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Here’s 00z vs 12z on July 4th. I just showed you the high temp map. You are posting a period that includes the overnight lows. I can show you previous runs as well. 64, 68, and 70 the last 3 runs. It's trending warmer and doesn't shown any rain that day now. No question it's improving. But don't worry... the ECMWF will show 61 with rain all day and it will be right! 4 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 28, 2022 Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: I just showed you the high temp map. You are posting a period that includes the overnight lows. I can show you previous runs as well. 64, 68, and 70 the last 3 runs. It's trending warmer and doesn't shown any rain that day now. No question it's improving. But don't worry... the ECMWF will show 61 with rain all day and it will be right! And I’m showing you that the airmass is colder and most locations trended cooler. Not a “warm trend” at all. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 28, 2022 Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 Down to 61 now. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted June 28, 2022 Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 Down to 57 in Shelton…31 degree drop over 7 hours. 66 here now…25 degree drop in 6 hours. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2022 Just now, Phil said: And I’m showing you that the airmass is colder and most locations trended cooler. Not a “warm trend” at all. Dude. I don't care at all about the air mass or the mountains or anywhere but the Seattle area. It's trending warmer. Whatever is changing is better for the Seattle area. 4 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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i will personally make sure this happens
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