December Observations and Discussions

[GDR]

Here is the Canadian snowfall map

 

. image.jpg

better get the brooms ready. But it will melt as quick as it falls with the ground temps

[winterfreak]

The temperatures are just to marginal this month. The current EURO seems like a likely solution around here.

[OKwx2k4]

Not as spectacular as one would like to see with this type of system, but has big time potential...would put a smile on the faces of OKCwx & Winterfreak...

It's going to be an interesting storm for sure. Maybe I can get a SE shift out of the models as we get closer.

[Maxim]

It's going to be an interesting storm for sure. Maybe I can get a SE shift out of the models as we get closer.

Why would it shift SE, though?

[OKwx2k4]

Why would it shift SE, though?

Why wouldn't it? Troll

[Geos]

GFS shows temps cooling in the 11-15 day range.

 

 

 

Falling AO, PNA, and NAO will change things, especially stopping system from heading towards Lake Superior and into Ontario.

[Maxim]

Why wouldn't it? Troll

I'm a troll because I don't think it'll trend SE? Okay then.

[OKwx2k4]

I'm a troll because I don't think it'll trend SE? Okay then.

I never said that I thought it would shift SE. I can hope it will but don't honestly think either way about it right now. If you don't think it will verify further SE of where it was at on that particular run, you explain why.

[gosaints]

Ensembles not as excited about nao and ao as there were a couple days ago

[Iowa2015]

Torch + above average preparation to close out December

[GDR]

I knew the torch would close out the month

[GDR]

Euro says what snow? Also models trending warmer.

[bud2380]

A number of the Euro ensembles are showing significant snow in the next 15 days.  Most of this though falls in the 10-15 day range, so probably not very reliable, but it's definitely trending better than it was a week ago when almost all members showed nothing in 15 days for much of the midwest.

 

http://i.imgur.com/yGRS1sE.jpg

[bud2380]

http://i.imgur.com/qeddzdd.png

[bud2380]

EPS Control run.

 

http://i.imgur.com/pELy3rW.png

[Maxim]

1% chance of verifying, I've seen it do something like this before.

[Maxim]

I never said that I thought it would shift SE. I can hope it will but don't honestly think either way about it right now. If you don't think it will verify further SE of where it was at on that particular run, you explain why.

There's nothing that would favor a shift to the SE. It's not like there's a big block up north.

[Money]

There's nothing that would favor a shift to the SE. It's not like there's a big block up north.

 

You could have said the same thing about the last storm and look what happened.

[clintbeed1993]

I doubt the storm tracks that far south without a sufficient arctic push to suppress the storm track, but who knows.

[Tom]

00z GFS...

[clintbeed1993]

Lol, GFS is North, EURO is South.  Nebraska is split on both models.  Meet in the middle sounds great to me.

[Money]

GEM

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_216_0000.gif

[winterfreak]

There goes my snowstorm. Just way to warm for any significant snow. Sure it's nine days out but these marginal temperatures are a death sentence. Might not see my first flake until January if one of these projected storms in the second half of December don't produce but instead bring raw rain.

[Geos]

There's nothing that would favor a shift to the SE. It's not like there's a big block up north.

 

Remember the teleconnections are changing...

 

I think the medium range changes are the beginning of the step towards a slightly different pattern across North America. One where the flow isn't so zonal.

[westMJim]

Its early in the winter season and things could change but IMO we could be looking at a winter more like the one that happened in 1931/32 then 1982/83 or 1997/98.  In 1931 September was +6.2 (September 2015 was +4.4) October 1931 was +4.8° (October 2015 +1.1°) November 1931 was +7.5° (November 2015 was +5.4°) December 1931 was +6.6° (first 5 days of December 2015 are +5.7°) January 1932 was +9.8° February 1932 was +5.0° and then winter came in March of 1932 when it was -7.2° and 25.3” of snow fell. Note the above was for Grand Rapids, Michigan at the old airport that was about 10 miles west of the new airport. But I took a quick look at Des Moines, Iowa for the winter of 1931/32 and the pattern there was the same as Grand Rapids but with less snow in March.  So at this time until the pattern really changes (if it does) this winter could be like the winter of 1931/32 (remember no two winters are exactly alike.  But at this point in time that is the way I see this winter playing out. 

[winterfreak]

Storm continues to be a torcher. We need some type of blocking to have a chance at any snow.

[Tom]

00z Euro with a classic Lower Lakes bomb that develops in the Texarkana region of the deep south and then deepens into a 971mb SLP near SW MI.  Insane.  Heading in the right direction.  Looking better organized this run.  Let's see how this baby evolves.

[gosaints]

971mb bomb that drops a sliver of snow. Now thats bad luck... Models have been taking.turns showing bombs

[Tom]

971mb bomb that drops a sliver of snow. Now thats bad luck... Models have been taking.turns showing bombs

Way better looking that the 12z run from yesterday...baby steps...

[gosaints]

Way better looking that the 12z run from yesterday...baby steps...

Ya. Gfs been showing bomb on and off as well just very iffy thermals

[james1976]

971?! Wow

[OKwx2k4]

Ya. Gfs been showing bomb on and off as well just very iffy thermals

True. Need to deepen that trough quite a bit. Either way, going to be a nice storm.

[gosaints]

Almost comical watching the models struggle with the powerhouse pacific

[Tom]

That lead system coming out of the Rockies over the weekend will be critical to where the baroclinic zone sets up and allow the second stronger piece of energy to ride up that frontal boundary.  Nasty SE ridge developing during this period and a -AO/-NAO will help this storm dig.  In early Nov, this cycling system ended up shifting farther SE every day as we got closer to the day of the storm.  Gary Lezak made points about how the larger scale systems this season have been trending that way.  Will it do the same this time around???  We'll have to see.  I will say this, every run over the last couple days, the Euro has been pressing farther south with the lead system.

 

Meanwhile, many Euro members suggest the Plains getting hammered with this particular storm system.  There is another system on its tail that the EPS is picking up on that cuts up towards the Lakes 3 days later.  

 

Euro/GFS Ensembles not backing down on a -AO pattern...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

Here's a quote from Gary Lezak regarding next week's system...

 

 

 

The AO is forecast to dip into negative territory next week, and I have seen some model runs start to block up the pattern. It is something we have to monitor closely as it could have an impact on next week’s storm.

[Tom]

Very dense Fog around here this morning.  Flights into ORD have been circling around for the Fog to lift.  One flight missed the approach while trying to land due to the heavy fog.  This season has been one of the foggiest one's I've seen in a very long time...I don't recall any other year in recent memory that would compare to this one.

 

@ Gabel, I hope those folklore's pan out!

 

On another note, I wonder how long the models keep showing the N PAC ridge to continue to fire up.  All models showing it popping Day 6 and not letting go.

 

00z EPS Day 10-15 mean...this pattern will continue seeding Siberian air into NW NAMER and spill down into the west/central CONUS.  Meanwhile, the -AO blocks up the hemispheric flow and can get very interesting to produce some big time storms.

[OKwx2k4]

That lead system coming out of the Rockies over the weekend will be critical to where the baroclinic zone sets up and allow the second stronger piece of energy to ride up that frontal boundary. Nasty SE ridge developing during this period and a -AO/-NAO will help this storm dig. In early Nov, this cycling system ended up shifting farther SE every day as we got closer to the day of the storm. Gary Lezak made points about how the larger scale systems this season have been trending that way. Will it do the same this time around??? We'll have to see. I will say this, every run over the last couple days, the Euro has been pressing farther south with the lead system.

 

Meanwhile, many Euro members suggest the Plains getting hammered with this particular storm system. There is another system on its tail that the EPS is picking up on that cuts up towards the Lakes 3 days later.

 

Euro/GFS Ensembles not backing down on a -AO pattern...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

Here's a quote from Gary Lezak regarding next week's system...

The trend towards the pattern repeating towards the south and east is something I was trying to make note of in a previous post. As blocking increases throughout the latter half of December and on into January the pattern almost certainly has to evolve that way. Especially if we see a PV split. Not saying or even implying we'll all see instant cold or anything like that but progress is nice to see. Wouldn't mind keeping a weaker version of the SE ridge around for the winter but don't think it will happen.

[OKwx2k4]

12z GFS now very similar to Euro map above. More changes imminent I'm sure.

[gosaints]

Canadian with a bomber. Cold sector dominated by heavy rain. Wow

[winterfreak]

GEM has no cold air to work with. So models are suggesting anywhere from no cold air to marginal. Rain or concrete mixer. Nice looking storm nonetheless.

[Tom]

You guys know better...its Day 6-7...come on now..its not like we are dealing with a raging AO/NAO pattern.  Then I would be skeptical.