December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Problem is which model is most accurate with snow totals

 

 

ECMWF does not even show precip... snow totals are irrelevant on that model for the Seattle area.

 

Actually... looking closer it might get down to Lynnwood and Bothell.  

[seattleweatherguy]

ECMWF does not even show precip... snow totals are irrelevant on that model for the Seattle area.

 

 

 

Actually... looking closer it might get down to Lynnwood and Bothell.

Have my fingers crossed

[seattleweatherguy]

I think it's safe to say they have all performed rather poorly with this pattern the past couple days.

Then we waot till last run to make judgement

[HighlandExperience]

Expected to reach mid 70s today in NYC.

[MossMan]

Crap... the 12Z ECMWF does keep the c-zone way north. Everett to Mt Vernon gets more snow tonight but its almost totally dry for King County.

I would be ok with that...wish everyone could join in on the action.

[Guest Winterdog]

Crap... the 12Z ECMWF does keep the c-zone way north.   Everett to Mt Vernon gets more snow tonight but its almost totally dry for King County.

Where are you seeing this? The Wundermap shows virtually no snow at all anywhere for the next 24 hours.

edit: I see it now on the MSL view. Showing precipitation of no specific type.

[TT-SEA]

Where are you seeing this? The Wundermap shows virtually no snow at all anywhere for the next 24 hours.

 

 

Looking at precip only... the wundermap snowfall maps are worthless.   Assuming any precip tonight will be snow based on what is happening now and a colder air mass coming in.

 

This is up through 4 a.m. tomorrow morning...

 

http://s21.postimg.org/r3gekvaw7/xmas.jpg

 

 

Even my location is out of the action.   

[seattleweatherguy]

Hopefullt the next run will be better.

[BLI snowman]

12z Euro quite a bit wetter for Sunday. Borderline temps.

[Timmy]

A friend of my from near coeur d'Alene has 30" of new snow.

[crf450ish]

A friend of my from near coeur d'Alene has 30" of new snow.

Yep, I believe it too! That low press. system we were all obsessing over a few days ago really slammed that area. And its been snowing every day since. Matter of fact I woke up to 3" of new snow this morning, bringing my total snow on the ground to 17"....amazing. 

[MossMan]

Heavy rain and snow mixed now. Temp up to 33.

[Snowman5678]

Too bad the WRF butchered the placement of the CZ this morning...3-6" would have been great.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF says winter will come to the Midwest and NE...

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015122412!!chart.gif

[TT-SEA]

HRRR still showing the c-zone right over the I-90 corridor by 4 p.m.   

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015122417/t1/1ref_t1sfc_f07.png

[Front Ranger]

Crap... the 12Z ECMWF does keep the c-zone way north.   Everett to Mt Vernon gets more snow tonight but its almost totally dry for King County.   

 

All the models suck in guageing precip/snow potential in this sort of situation.

[HighlandExperience]

HRRR still showing the c-zone right over the I-90 corridor by 4 p.m.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015122417/t1/1ref_t1sfc_f07.png

That would be nice.

[bainbridgekid]

WSDOT just tweeted that there is 15 feet of snow on the freeway near Snoqualmie Pass. Guess it's a good thing they closed. 

 

The new road being built is on the right, the current road is buried on the left.

 

[seattleweatherguy]

Too bad the WRF butchered the placement of the CZ this morning...3-6" would have been great.

 

 

too bad.PNG

This a current run?

[Front Ranger]

The last couple runs of the Euro keep things pretty chilly for you guys through the end of the year. Not "fake" cold, either.

[bainbridgekid]

I just realized that Snoqualmie Pass has gotten more snow in the last 7 days than they got all of last year. 

[Front Ranger]

My dad said their neighborhood in Myrtle Creek got 1-2" last night (report from a friend, as my parents are in CA for Christmas).

[Front Ranger]

I just realized that Snoqualmie Pass has gotten more snow in the last 7 days than they got all of last year. 

 

Has to be one of their greatest 7 day totals in a long time. At least since 2007-08?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro snow maps showing 1 to 4 inches of snow pdx to EUG Sunday night.

[TT-SEA]

Up to 40 at SEA at 11 a.m. and its sunny over much of King County.   

 

Not quite the Christmas Eve we thought was coming earlier this week.

[HighlandExperience]

This a current run?

 

Yes, but I'd take it with a grain of salt. 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/wa_snow24.24.0000.gif

[Perturbed Member]

12z Euro quite a bit wetter for Sunday. Borderline temps.

 

Hope it doesn't take it away again like it did a day ago, models seem to be struggling with the splittyness.  Should be cold enough if at least some of the precip falls outside of peak heating hours.

 

 

FYI to all, don't use the Wundermap Euro snowfall map. I've never found it to be meaningful and it is very low resolution. Doesn't seem to agree with the euro maps from WeatherBell either.

[MossMan]

Back to light drizzle and 34 degrees. Well it was fun while it lasted this morning!

[seattleweatherguy]

Yes, but I'd take it with a grain of salt.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/wa_snow24.24.0000.gif

The spot for the CZ is near perfect for me if only it will verify

[Deweydog]

Up to 40 at SEA at 11 a.m. and its sunny over much of King County.

 

Not quite the Christmas Eve we thought was coming earlier this week.

10 days ago this was a pretty good bet.

[Phil]

Expected to reach mid 70s today in NYC.

To make matters worse, our first snowfall looks to occur next week, while I'm in Miami, FL. I just can't win as of late.

[Deweydog]

For those in the Vancouver area looking for a fix it's a pretty quick trip up here to Larch. 12" of glorious snow ball snow.

[Bryant]

ECMWF says winter will come to the Midwest and NE...

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015122412!!chart.gif

This has been pretty well advertised for a while

[stuffradio]

Man, I'd have to drive an hour to get a white Christmas. The highway in Chilliwack by Bridal falls is getting hammered with snow.

 

http://images.drivebc.ca/bchighwaycam/pub/cameras/240.jpg

[Phil]

Classic SSW precursor on the 11-15 day GEFS. Waiting on EPS.

 

#baratropicinstability

[seattleweatherguy]

Classic SSW precursor on the 11-15 day GEFS. Waiting on EPS.

 

#baratropicinstability

But what does that mean for us?

[stuffradio]

Cliff Mass the grinch. http://cliffmass.blogspot.ca/2015/12/lowland-snow-over-western-washington.html

[Phil]

But what does that mean for us?

Would favor high latitude blocking through second half of winter. Question is where does the blocking set up?

[Guest Winterdog]

Back to snow again here and it looks like precipitation is building again to the west. 34F now. I've recorded 2.25" of precipitation in the last 18 hours with two 1/4" snowfalls.

[Guest Winterdog]

Looking at precip only... the wundermap snowfall maps are worthless.   Assuming any precip tonight will be snow based on what is happening now and a colder air mass coming in.

 

This is up through 4 a.m. tomorrow morning...

 

 

 

Even my location is out of the action.

Thanks Tim.