December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[FroYoBro]

It's not really a very cold trough. It is your typical 1000ft snow level airmass. Idk why anyone would think otherwise.

Yeah, it never looked that amazing. It's not like an arctic airmass was pulled away from us at the last second. 

[HighlandExperience]

The warming, in of itself is an insufficient explanation. You're looking at about 1-2 degrees fahrenheit since 1950.

 

1-2 degrees makes a big difference. 

[TT-SEA]

Not really a c-zone but a frontal boundary maybe.   

 

Its so weak.

 

HRRR is technically correct because it does exist... but ECMWF already told us it would be pathetic.   And it is.

[MossMan]

I think people were expecting to much from an airmass that wasn't even marginal.

I wasn't expecting much, but I was hoping my elevation would have helped a little more. As it was I was quite happy with this morning.

[Phil]

The 18z GFS is a huge step backwards in terms of wave driving. Need that NPAC low farther west for ideal wave-1. Otherwise, downstream response is for wave-2 precession.

[Phil]

1-2 degrees makes a big difference.

It makes a difference in marginal situations, but it's still an insufficient explanation for both the lack of midwinter Arctic blasts and reduction in seasonal lowland snowfall in your region.

[TT-SEA]

Starting out as rain here... good luck to those lower than me!  

[Perturbed Member]

18z GFS still not coming around to the Euro for the Sunday system. Nothing really makes it very far inland and everything just heads south literally and figuratively.

[Timmy]

Ended up with about 5" of snow today for the last 48 hours. If I were just 300' higher(drove up the hill) I would have at about 14".

[crf450ish]

Hadley Cells broadening and migrating poleward since the late 1970s. Tied in to change in longitudinal SST gradient across tropical Pacific.

I dont know anything about Hadley Cells, but from what I understand (which isn't much, considering I have zero formal education in atmospheric sciences) is that the SSTs are what primarily drives allot of the mild weather the upper west coast has been seeing the last few decades. That, combined with allot less sea ice to reflect the sunlight has caused the arctic temps to rise (I don't know how much...). Allot of variables are at play here. I really think that we are on the cusp of a massive cool down. The solar activity is predicted to start becoming less active. The cycle is destined to repeat itself and its only a matter of time before we start seeing the effects of this. I also think that we are seeing a little bit of it now.....look at the east coast. When is the last time they had a massive torch like they are having now? 

 

 

I just dig the science behind the long term effects of weather. It all originates with our sun. That is the battery that powers this planet. 

[Phil]

I dont know anything about Hadley Cells, but from what I understand (which isn't much, considering I have zero formal education in atmospheric sciences) is that the SSTs are what primarily drives allot of the mild weather the upper west coast has been seeing the last few decades. That, combined with allot less sea ice to reflect the sunlight has caused the arctic temps to rise (I don't know how much...). Allot of variables are at play here.

Both the Pacific Ocean and the Cascades act to moderate temperatures on the NW-North American coast, relative to the rest of the continent. The NPAC SSTs you're referring to have warmed, but actually to a lesser degree than that of the atmosphere (physical reasoning(s) unimportant for discussion).

 

The albedo effect you're referring to in the Arctic, meanwhile, actually isn't a very significant factor in the observed warming up there.

 

I really think that we are on the cusp of a massive cool down. The solar activity is predicted to start becoming less active. The cycle is destined to repeat itself and its only a matter of time before we start seeing the effects of this.

Unfortunately, this idea won't gain traction within scientific community until it actually happens. There's solid physical reasoning out there for a major climate shift in the very near future, but it's both politically and economically unpopular. Not to mention potentially impossible to model.

 

I also think that we are seeing a little bit of it now.....look at the east coast. When is the last time they had a massive torch like they are having now?

We've had a ridiculous number of warm Decembers in recent years. This one's a laugher for sure.

[MossMan]

Latest AFD from Seattle was a copy/paste...once again.

[TT-SEA]

Drizzle! 

[MossMan]

Yep!

[MossMan]

Clouds have thicked up here again...temp down to 35 from a high of 38. Still a little slush on the car windshield from this morning!

[seattleweatherguy]

Hopefully something good happens

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 years and I can retire and move to my property up near republic. One of the biggest issues in my life is living in this disgusting climate.

[seattleweatherguy]

Still at 39....

[Front Ranger]

Wow, this place is a real pick-me-up on Christmas Eve. You'd think that not getting snow = cancer diagnosis.

 

That being said...there's still hope for some of you. To get snow in the next 18 hours.

[BLI snowman]

18z GFS still not coming around to the Euro for the Sunday system. Nothing really makes it very far inland and everything just heads south literally and figuratively.

 

It's the wettest GFS run in a couple days actually for the I-5 corridor. Unfortunately a bit too warm on temps.

[FroYoBro]

Wow, this place is a real pick-me-up on Christmas Eve. You'd think that not getting snow = cancer diagnosis.

 

That being said...there's still hope for some of you. To get snow in the next 18 hours.

 

  You have said that a lot over the last few days. There never was a really good setup for accumulating snow to the valley floor. Don't give the weenies any more heartbreaks. 

[Deweydog]

You have said that a lot over the last few days. There never was a really good setup for accumulating snow to the valley floor. Don't give the weenies any more heartbreaks.

Careful, you'll get labled a nitpicker.

 

No one likes a nitpicker on Christmas.

[TT-SEA]

Problem tonight is there is not enough moisture.   We need more moisture!    Its just too dry here.  

[Perturbed Member]

It's the wettest GFS run in a couple days actually for the I-5 corridor. Unfortunately a bit too warm on temps.

 

You're right, I must have looked at the wrong run. I could have swore the GFS maps on the pivitolweather showed no precip earlier when I looked.

 

Looks like it is saying 35F or so . The 12z euro snow map still showed snow accumulation, indicating just cold enough. Hoping the euro sticks to this.

 

Sometimes the models seem to underestimate our low level cold and the persistence of it with even light offshore flow, hoping that helps a bit.

[crf450ish]

Both the Pacific Ocean and the Cascades act to moderate temperatures on the NW-North American coast, relative to the rest of the continent. The NPAC SSTs you're referring to have warmed, but actually to a lesser degree than that of the atmosphere (physical reasoning(s) unimportant for discussion).

 

The albedo effect you're referring to in the Arctic, meanwhile, actually isn't a very significant factor in the observed warming up there.

 

 

Unfortunately, this idea won't gain traction within scientific community until it actually happens. There's solid physical reasoning out there for a major climate shift in the very near future, but it's both politically and economically unpopular. Not to mention potentially impossible to model.

 

 

We've had a ridiculous number of warm Decembers in recent years. This one's a laugher for sure.

EXACTLY! Politics politics politics. Just like the recent world wide agreement to keep global temps to a mild uproar... PPPLLEEAASSSEE!

[GHweatherChris]

Rain/snow mix in Westport with what looks like the last band of precip. Windshield confirmed.

[Front Ranger]

  You have said that a lot over the last few days. There never was a really good setup for accumulating snow to the valley floor. Don't give the weenies any more heartbreaks. 

 

Some people have gotten snow. I've never promised any Christmas presents to anyone on here. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow, this place is a real pick-me-up on Christmas Eve. You'd think that not getting snow = cancer diagnosis.

 

That being said...there's still hope for some of you. To get snow in the next 18 hours.

Cancer is much worse. ******* hate it.

[Front Ranger]

Careful, you'll get labled a nitpicker.

 

No one likes a nitpicker on Christmas.

 

I don't use that label liberally.

[Front Ranger]

Cancer is much worse. ******* hate it.

 

I'm glad we agree on that.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I honestly would be surprised if seattle gets any snow In the next 5 years.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I guess it has snowed another inch in the past hour at my place.

[Deweydog]

I honestly would be surprised if seattle gets any snow In the next 5 years.

Weird.

[Deweydog]

I guess it has snowed another inch in the past hour at my place.

Place, area or location?

[ShawniganLake]

It snowed over here where I live every single year at least one good one every year growing up. Something has changed big time.

There were some pretty ugly snowless winters in the 40s. Close to on par with this stretch in some places.

[Front Ranger]

I guess it has snowed another inch in the past hour at my place.

 

That house sitter of yours deserves a raise.

[Weather101]

That house sitter of yours deserves a raise.

Agreed.

[Weather101]

There were some pretty ugly snowless winters in the 40s. Close to on par with this stretch in some places.

Cycles. But I am still holding out hope for Sunday night for YVR, you think the models could be overdoing the warm air? We should have enough cool air in place.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That house sitter of yours deserves a raise.

 

I'll consider it. 

[MossMan]

Currently at the lake house...it has cleared up for the moment and things are icing up. Primed for more moisture!!