December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Euro already looking way better than GFS.

 

 

No surprise.   

[GHweatherChris]

You sure woke up on the wrong side of the bed today.

Not at all, just didn't seem like the NWS was surprised at all to me.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 120 low south of Aleutians is both stronger and further north compared to the GFS. Ridge starting to build/amplify over central Aleutians as with previous EURO runs.

[Front Ranger]

Day 6. Ridge is centered a bit too far west, but plenty strong. 10x better than GFS solution.

 

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 144 500mb anomalies by far the most amplified ridge and strongest positive anomaly of any run. We might be close to establishing cross-polar flow on this one.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015121800/ecmwf_z500a_namer_7.png

[Timmy]

Sort of jealous... but I know it will be seriously windy here in a few hours and the temp will jump dramatically. Not a fan of the freezing rain falling here.

 

We have had absolutely no wind all day... snowed 2 inches this morning and never went above 33. The snow has not melted at all and is now encased in ice. But it should be gone by morning per the WRF.

wanna trade?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6. Ridge is centered a bit too far west, but plenty strong. 10x better than GFS solution.

 

 

get_orig_img.png

Ya, a bit too far west.

[snow_wizard]

I'm wondering if the GFS upgrade might be a bust.  Assuming the ECMWF ends up correct the GFS is performing very badly with this.

[snow_wizard]

Ya, a bit too far west.

 

Maybe...maybe not in the longer term.  We don't want it too far east either.

[Front Ranger]

At day 7, this run is not as cool as 12z. But it's still holding the block in a good place, potential snow chances with offshore flow. 

 

Still worlds different than GFS.

[Guest Winterdog]

snow_wizard, on 17 Dec 2015 - 10:40 PM, said:

I'm wondering if the GFS upgrade might be a bust.  Assuming the ECMWF ends up correct the GFS is performing very badly with this.

Let's hope it doesn't verify.

[Gradient Keeper]

Nice positive tilt ridge taking shape....Bitter cold into Yukon by day 5

[Guest Winterdog]

At day 7, this run is not as cool as 12z. But it's still holding the block in a good place, potential snow chances with offshore flow. 

 

Still worlds different than GFS.

At the 500mb level the ridge appears to be a bit east of the 12Z.

[High Desert Mat]

A bit too far west I far better than too far east imo. As long as its not too far lol. Looking good so far to be honest.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 192

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015121800/ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png

[Front Ranger]

Nice positive tilt ridge taking shape....Bitter cold into Yukon by day 5

 

The position of the ridge is pretty good, but for whatever reason 850s don't get as cold by day 8 as the 12z. But yes, frigid temps in the Yukon/BC.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9 decently cold. Real cold east wind, offshore flow, likely persistent Columbia Basin cold pool developing.
 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015121800/ecmwf_T850_nwus_10.png

[Gradient Keeper]

I think IF the Euro doesn't back off with amplifying this ridge we should see future runs turn colder.

[Guest Winterdog]

I think IF the Euro doesn't back off with amplifying this ridge we should see future runs turn colder.

That ridge sure wimped out at 216 hours. Don't see any snow around here from that run. Better than sand in your sheets I guess.

edit: It looks much better at the 850 though. I guess I should keep my mouth shut until I look at all levels.

[Gradient Keeper]

Rex block at day 10, hmmmm....

[GobBluth]

Score pattern for California, long term.

[Front Ranger]

That ridge sure wimped out at 216 hours. Don't see any snow around here from that run. Better than sand in your sheets I guess.

 

Who cares. It's so much better than the GFS at day 6. Where exactly it goes from there remains to be seen, but that's the period that really determines potential. The Euro has basically stuck to its guns, which bodes well.

[westiztehbest]

Hell yes.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Hell yes.

 

http://s2.postimg.org/wbtby5fsp/gem_asnow_nwus_40.jpg

A major winter wonderland for Spokane!

[MikeInEverett]

Hell yes.

 

http://s2.postimg.org/wbtby5fsp/gem_asnow_nwus_40.jpg

That's a lot of white stuff.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF is close to being excellent.  Bitterly cold air is shown quite far south in BC on this run.  Besides that the basic setup is still good at day 10.  This looks pretty promising to me.

[Deweydog]

Hell yes.

 

http://s2.postimg.org/wbtby5fsp/gem_asnow_nwus_40.jpg

Brookings *******!

[HighlandExperience]

The ECMWF is close to being excellent. Bitterly cold air is shown quite far south in BC on this run. Besides that the basic setup is still good at day 10. This looks pretty promising to me.

How does the weatherbell snowfall map look?

[snow_wizard]

One thing I hope we can all agree on is this upcoming pattern has much better potential than we normally see with a Nino of this magnitude.  We still have a realistic shot at something really good before we're done.

[westiztehbest]

Ridges seem to be popping up all over the NPAC per the ECMWF.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

How does the weatherbell snowfall map look?

 

It's not complete yet.  I'll let you know.  I will say it already shows a lowland dusting by day 3 in some areas.  That reminds me...as poor as the GFS operational was the WRF still shows 925mb temps dropping to 0C a few times over the next week.

[snow_wizard]

Ridges seems to be popping up all over the NPAC per the ECMWF.

 

 

 

This could bode well for a high impact event before a more typical Nino regime kicks in.  I've had a suspicion the coldest weather may come just before that shift occurs.  If we're lucky we may go from a major cold wave right into a big ridge that would keep the surface cold for quite some time.

[Guest Winterdog]

One thing I hope we can all agree on is this upcoming pattern has much better potential than we normally see with a Nino of this magnitude.  We still have a realistic shot at something really good before we're done.

That's for sure. We've had less promising Nina winters at this point.

[westiztehbest]

Last pic for tonight.  Cold!  

 

[Gradient Keeper]

*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*.*

*.*.*. MERRY CHRISTMAS .*.*.*

[Model Countdown] 12/17 - 12/18/15

Next up.................

*6z GFS in 2 hours 4 minutes

12z GFS in 8 hours 4 minutes

12z GEM in 9 hours 4 minutes

12z ECMWF in 10 hours 27 minutes

[TT-SEA]

One thing I hope we can all agree on is this upcoming pattern has much better potential than we normally see with a Nino of this magnitude. We still have a realistic shot at something really good before we're done.

1965, 1972, 1998 and others disagree.

[seattleweatherguy]

I hope we get historic cold before nino kicks in.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF based snowfall maps show a log of places in Western WA and NW OR getting snowfall before it turns dry and cold for the 7 to 10 day period.  The Puget Sound basin only gets a dusting and Portland gets screwed.  In previous runs the Seattle area did better so it will come down to details as always.

[epiceast]

Snowed 7" on Wednesday here in Moscow(I moved recently) and it's snowing tonight... Pretty decent for El Nino I guess.

[snow_wizard]

I hope we get historic cold before nino kicks in.

 

Me too.  It is interesting to note the long range models continue to show the main torching being in the East.  I guess we were due for something like this since the East has stolen the show so many times when it should have been our turn.