December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 12z gfs isn't bad really.

[FroYoBro]

The 12z gfs isn't bad really.

Looking like you will have a white Christmas.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Close

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It shows me in heavy snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Even the long range around nye is interesting.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Well, looking at the 12z - snow for many in the Puget Sound area, above 500 feet on Christmas day is good. No, this is not a lock, but with 850 levels at -7 to -8 there is a chance. Honestly, this is about the best chance of snow around Christmas that I have seen in a very, very, very long time. 

 

I will keep my expectations low for cold rain until we get closer and things improve ... Anything more than this is just silliness and it also keeps my fragile, weather-minded nature from breaking. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'll take that 50% chance!

Score?

[Brennan]

The chances of rain are definitely 100%

[BLI snowman]

That elusive dry day in December is looking pretty tentative. 

[Front Ranger]

Wowzers...

image.png

 

The anomaly at DEN has dropped from around +10 a week ago to about +3.5 now.

[TT-SEA]

That elusive dry day in December is looking pretty tentative. 

 

 

Ain't happening today at the major stations.   

 

Maybe Christmas Day... that is about the only chance this month.

[TT-SEA]

Took a carload of kids up to Snoqualmie Summit for skiing this morning... reminds me of what it used to look like up there from 2006-2012.

 

[Front Ranger]

Took a carload of kids up to Snoqualmie Summit for skiing this morning... reminds me of what it used to look like up there from 2006-2012.

 

The good ol' -PDO years. Speaking of which, this month might actually see the PDO go negative for the first time in a long time. Should be close.

[Front Ranger]

New Euro certainly looks like it has lowland snow.

[TT-SEA]

New Euro certainly looks like it has lowland snow.

Be interesting to see the maps. But the jet and warmer air just plows right back in... no stopping that train yet.

[HighlandExperience]

Be interesting to see the maps. But the jet and warmer air just plows right back in... no stopping that train yet.

At least you will see snow. Snowfall map shows you and Hood Canal getting something. It will be nice if details work out for the rest of Puget Sound.

[Front Ranger]

Be interesting to see the maps. But the jet and warmer air just plows right back in... no stopping that train yet.

 

Yup. Not sure if it's been mentioned, but the pattern is rather progressive.

 

With decent chances of lowland snow around Christmas. That being said, myself, Phil and others have said all along that the best chance for Arctic air and a potentially better pattern is probably January. Aside from 1972, Decembers during strong Ninos have almost never produced much in the way of Arctic air. But there can still be fun without true Arctic blasts.

[TT-SEA]

Back at home now... here is our backyard this morning.   Amazingly resilient snow here.

 

http://s21.postimg.org/6v9fehkvr/2015_12_19_11_11_22.jpg

[seattleweatherguy]

I can wait until January if it's historic and big

[Guest Winterdog]

Front Ranger, on 19 Dec 2015 - 11:13 AM, said:

Yup. Not sure if it's been mentioned, but the pattern is rather progressive.

 

With decent chances of lowland snow around Christmas. That being said, myself, Phil and others have said all along that the best chance for Arctic air and a potentially better pattern is probably January. Aside from 1972, Decembers during strong Ninos have almost never produced much in the way of Arctic air. But there can still be fun without true Arctic blasts.

Yes indeed!  I've enjoyed hours upon hours peering into floodlights looking for that ever elusive snow-blob during such events.  Fun too is  the every ten minute thermometer and radar check.  Who could get bored in this climate?

[chinook]

don't bash the weather n00b...but can someone explain resolution as it relates to weather maps? 

 

curious.

[TT-SEA]

I just went through the ECMWF maps and they don't show any real snow for my area... the moisture runs out on Thursday and then does not come back until Saturday.

 

And a fire hose of rain into BC and NW WA on Saturday afternoon already.    Unbelievably quick turn around.   Maybe some flooding a couple days later.

[snow_wizard]

Well...It would appear the GFS might be as good as the ECMWF now.  No doubt it led the way on this coming bust.  Now even the ECMWF shows lowland snow chances as being pretty slim.  I guess the 8 to 10 day period looks better than previous runs now, but this is pretty discouraging.

 

Probably 75% to 80% of the state is buried in snow right now and we can't get anything in the Puget Sound lowlands.

[Front Ranger]

Well...It would appear the GFS might be as good as the ECMWF now.  No doubt it led the way on this coming bust.  Now even the ECMWF shows lowland snow chances as being pretty slim.  I guess the 8 to 10 day period looks better than previous runs now, but this is pretty discouraging.

 

Probably 75% to 80% of the state is buried in snow right now and we can't get anything in the Puget Sound lowlands.

 

The GFS/Euro have come to a compromised solution from what they were both showing 2-3 days ago. Not sure one or the other really led the way this time.

 

There is still a decent shot at some lowland snow next week.

[TT-SEA]

Well...It would appear the GFS might be as good as the ECMWF now. No doubt it led the way on this coming bust. Now even the ECMWF shows lowland snow chances as being pretty slim. I guess the 8 to 10 day period looks better than previous runs now, but this is pretty discouraging.

 

Probably 75% to 80% of the state is buried in snow right now and we can't get anything in the Puget Sound lowlands.

I knew you were being too optimistic. The ECMWF has not changed that much... just the fine details are warmer which is typical.

[stuffradio]

Why does the HRES Euro tease me so? It's giving me 17" of snow by New year's eve eve eve...

[snow_wizard]

I knew you were being too optimistic. The ECMWF has not changed that much... just the fine details are warmer which is typical.

 

Obviously the fine details are everything with this.  The 0z Euro looked pretty promising.  I don't think I've ever seen a setup like the one being advertised being so starved for cold air.  The one thing we know for sure is the Arctic air will make an appearance in the US at some point.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This newest gfs mm5 shows snow in areas jim. Last few did not.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS/Euro have come to a compromised solution from what they were both showing 2-3 days ago. Not sure one or the other really led the way this time.

 

There is still a decent shot at some lowland snow next week.

 

Maybe.  We could see some unexpected moisture when the coldest air is here.  Monday is also a wild card with that low tracking just south of Seattle.

[BLI snowman]

Well...It would appear the GFS might be as good as the ECMWF now.  No doubt it led the way on this coming bust.  Now even the ECMWF shows lowland snow chances as being pretty slim.  I guess the 8 to 10 day period looks better than previous runs now, but this is pretty discouraging.

 

Probably 75% to 80% of the state is buried in snow right now and we can't get anything in the Puget Sound lowlands.

 

Interesting math there.

[snow_wizard]

This newest gfs mm5 shows snow in areas jim. Last few did not.

 

The 0z was a little better, but no runs before had shown any snow.  It still shows the air mass certainly cold enough for snow on Christmas Eve, but no moisture by then.  Some unexpected moisture / a C-Zone is our best bet.

[snow_wizard]

Interesting math there.

 

Looking at the web cams even places like the Tri Cities have snow.  I'll bet my numbers were close.

[snow_wizard]

Why does the HRES Euro tease me so? It's giving me 17" of snow by New year's eve eve eve...

 

You could do pretty well up there.

[MossMan]

Well in a last ditch effort, I washed all the 4wd's...I have always done this the weekend before it snows. Mainly because the weather is usually pleasant a few days before it gets cold/snowy. Let it snow!!

[HighlandExperience]

Interesting math there.

You think so? Pretty much all of eastern wa is covered. 70 percent seems like a good estimation.

[BLI snowman]

Looking at the web cams even places like the Tri Cities have snow.  I'll bet my numbers were close.

 

Geographically much of the state is mountainous and basically uninhabitable year-round, so I guess. But the same could be said for a lot of the year. The western half of the state, sans mountains, is completely snowless right now so it'd be rather misleading to suggest that an extremely disproportionate amount of the state has snow relative to normal. 

[BLI snowman]

You think so? Pretty much all of eastern wa is covered. 70 percent seems like a good estimation.

 

I'd guess 60%. Technically there is more land area east of the Cascades than there is west of it so that maybe does skew the balance. Of course the vast majority of areas below 1000' in the state have no snowcover. Again, a pretty normal balance. 

[HighlandExperience]

Geographically much of the state is mountainous and basically uninhabitable year-round, so I guess. But the same could be said for a lot of the year. The western half of the state, sans mountains, is completely snowless right now so it'd be rather misleading to suggest that an extremely disproportionate amount of the state has snow relative to normal.

I get what you are saying. We are all just snow starved weenies.

[Guest Winterdog]

MossMan, on 19 Dec 2015 - 12:06 PM, said:

Well in a last ditch effort, I washed all the 4wd's...I have always done this the weekend before it snows. Mainly because the weather is usually pleasant a few days before it gets cold/snowy. Let it snow!!

That's a great looking Monkey tree.

[Phil]

Obviously the fine details are everything with this. The 0z Euro looked pretty promising. I don't think I've ever seen a setup like the one being advertised being so starved for cold air. The one thing we know for sure is the Arctic air will make an appearance in the US at some point.

Probably, but I don't anticipate anything like the record breaking airmasses of the last two winters, and there's a good chance we'll need to wait until late January or beyond as the NAM (AO) flips negative.