December 12-14th Snow and Rain system

[Tom]

00z GFS...

[Geos]

GFS the odd ball still with not enough cold air. It is pretty close though in eastern Nebraska.

I can tell from Tom's map that the model doesn't deepen the storm like the other models do, hence the snow further west and weaker.

 

NAM for instance has the storm several mb lower when it is passing Omaha at it's closest approach.

[Tom]

00z RGEM...creeping on your doorstep CentralNeb....

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015121200/rgem_asnow_us_16.png

[Geos]

GEM at hour 42

 

[bud2380]

Well if the 00z Canadian is on to something you guys in Nebraska are going to have a lot of fun over the next 5 days. The storm next Tuesday and Wednesday is trending further south as well. Some spots in Nebraska showing 16" on the cmc over the next 5.

[bud2380]

[CentralNebWeather]

Boy that is beautiful Tom. still waiting for local mets to give it any attention. Might be advisories issued in the early morning

[CentralNebWeather]

Thanks for the map and great information bud2380. Appreciate the teamwork of this site.

[Geos]

Boy that is beautiful Tom. still waiting for local mets to give it any attention. Might be advisories issued in the early morning

 

Hastings needs to make a decision pretty soon!

 

Glad the map loads up for you faster bud. Tropical tidbits is running slow tonight.

[Tom]

The beginnings of a "mini" snowmagedon...man, you guys in the Plains are in the hot spot.  Hope this "lead" system ignites the entire pattern into overdrive.  It's too bad this first storm didn't have the cold air to begin with.

[Geos]

You guys in Nebraska will be rocking it according the GEM.

 

 

Rainfall for the rest of us.

 

[Tom]

00z Euro...I wouldn't be surprised if there is embedded thundersnow in NE/NW IA...this defo band looks to be very intense.  Dynamic cooling should do the trick with these type of systems.

[CentralNebWeather]

The nws Hastings disco has awoken.

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH ...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

 

* TIMING ...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS

EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW WILL TO COME TO AN

END MONDAY MORNING.

 

* SNOW ACCUMULATION ...STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE

FORECAST.

 

* UNCERTAINTY ...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ...AND WITH

WHERE THE HEAVIEST BAND WILL DEVELOP. CHANGES IN THESE ELEMENTS

WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

 

* WINDS ...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20

TO 25 MPH ...WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH POSSIBLE.

 

* IMPACTS ...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WOULD RESULT

IN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ...

 

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW ...SLEET ...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

 

&&

[centralweather44]

The cut off is just crazy. Us in southeast Nebraska look to get missed again. I think it is going to be central and western Nebraskas yest considering the snow they have already received. Looks like we will sit with 1.25" of snow for the year for a while longer here.

[CentralNebWeather]

This map was just issued by nws Hastings. Loving it.

 

[Tom]

12z NAM...

[NEJeremy]

how depressing! this would have had HUGE snowfall totals if it fell as rain! I like how they have only rain forecasted though when it is 32 for a low on Sunday night

 

Tonight

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before midnight, then rain after midnight. Low around 40. North wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Sunday

Rain. High near 44. Breezy, with a north wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Sunday Night

Rain. Low around 32. Breezy, with a northwest wind 11 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

[Snowlover76]

So close for Lincoln.

[Geos]

 

how depressing! this would have had HUGE snowfall totals if it fell as rain! I like how they have only rain forecasted though when it is 32 for a low on Sunday night

 

Tonight

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before midnight, then rain after midnight. Low around 40. North wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Sunday

Rain. High near 44. Breezy, with a north wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Sunday Night

Rain. Low around 32. Breezy, with a northwest wind 11 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

 

 

I know it doesn't make sense. If you do get to freezing, then you probably will get some snow. If somehow you can avoid the dryslot then there is no mid level warm layer to prevent snow.

 

Sounding near Lincoln at 39 hours, 12z 12km NAM. Just to show that temperature decrease steadily with height.

 

[Geos]

8" probability

 

[NEJeremy]

I know it doesn't make sense. If you do get to freezing, then you probably will get some snow. If somehow you can avoid the dryslot then there is no mid level warm layer to prevent snow.

 

Sounding near Lincoln at 39 hours, 12z 12km NAM. Just to show that temperature decrease steadily with height.

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/GFS_3_2015121212_F39_41.0000N_96.5000W.png

I think the NWS office was maybe being a bit "lazy" too?! Presumably the low themp will be later in the evening, so it would stay rain for most of the night, but you would think there would at least be a mix there at the end. Up until this grid point forecast, there has been rain/snow in the forecast for Sunday night

[Naddan85]

Is it just me, or does the 18z NAM look a LITTLE bit better for Omaha?

[CentralNebWeather]

Nws Hastings really waiting until tomorrow for final forecasts. Broad brushing up to 6 inches but that may go up or down based on changeover. I think they were burned on an earlier storm and don't want the backlash. I guess I can't blame them but other offices issuing warnings. We will see who is correct.

[NH4NU]

18z NAM showing a narrow band of 3-5" for Lincoln 

[jcwxguy]

18z NAM showing a narrow band of 3-5" for Lincoln 

very sharp cutoff 

[centralweather44]

very sharp cutoff

Jcwxguy can you post the 00z when it comes out?

[jcwxguy]

Jcwxguy can you post the 00z when it comes out?

yeah, going to be around 8pm

[CentralNebWeather]

34 degrees here and am hearing thunder outside

[CentralNebWeather]

Now lightning. Heavy drizzle and windy. Sure feels like a storm is coming

[Geos]

I think the NWS office was maybe being a bit "lazy" too?! Presumably the low themp will be later in the evening, so it would stay rain for most of the night, but you would think there would at least be a mix there at the end. Up until this grid point forecast, there has been rain/snow in the forecast for Sunday night

 

I've proved the Chicago office wrong before. They've put rain and 32° or they say little to no accumulation and it ends up snowing a couple inches or more!

 

NAM is definitely seeing something that the GEM or GFS does not.

 

 

Starting a thread for the next system for you guys in the Plains.

[jcwxguy]

Lost power at my hotel for a minute (lightning strike). Took me a while to get everything back online lol

[centralweather44]

Ya we had a pretty health strike in Lincoln about 20 mins ago. Power flashed here as well.

[jaster220]

Sounds interesting out there - at least something to write about. Guess it is our turn to sit on the side lines over here. Good Luck - hope that NAM is right just as it was in painting some accurate larger totals over here in the November storm.

[Andrew NE]

Nam is east a bit from previous runs.

[Geos]

Sounds interesting out there - at least something to write about. Guess it is our turn to sit on the side lines over here. Good Luck - hope that NAM is right just as it was in painting some accurate larger totals over here in the November storm.

 

That it was. Next best model(s) was the GEM/RGEM.

 

NAM is super juiced over KS and NE. Looks really nice! 

 

 

[Geos]

[Bryan1117]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015121300/namconus_asnow_ncus_16.png

Man what I wouldn't give if this turns out to be one of those amazing SURPRISE snowstorms for Omaha. We tend to get one or two of those every decade, and we haven't really seen one this decade yet LOL. Actually we've been burned more often than not.

 

Hearing some thunder in SW Omaha right now, had a few very heavy downpours within the last couple hours. Haven't seen rainfall rates like this in December in a long time in this area of the country, if ever. This weather pattern is certainly exciting, but ready for some snow!    

[jcwxguy]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015121300/nam4km_asnow_ncus_15.png

[Naddan85]

Jim Flowers just said this on Facebook: 

Evening nam model is tracking system farther south....yikes! upper air looks like oct. 97 storm...

 

[Guest Snowball]

Very heavy rain with thunder in Lincoln! I think this storm will surprise with heavy wet snow at this time tomorrow! It reminds me of the Halloween storm of 97. Little if any snow and wake up to trees coming down!