Maxim Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 I honestly doubt the cold we see mid-month will be any more severe than the cold we saw back in 2012. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 JB said coldest nationwide over a 5-10 period.-- not regionally. (from today's video) Didn't mention anything about last two winters-- at least in todays video,, don't know what exactly he is comparing the 5-10 day period too...Guy takes a lot of heat-- many times from people who twist his words.. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Jb seems like a great guy. Enthusiastic about weather but making sure we know he put out his forecast in August for this winter and how he feels it is trending weather bell's way. The next 3 months will tell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 JB said coldest nationwide over a 5-10 period.-- not regionally. (from today's video) Didn't mention anything about last two winters-- at least in todays video,, don't know what exactly he is comparing the 5-10 day period too...Guy takes a lot of heat-- many times from people who twist his words.. Jb seems like a great guy. Enthusiastic about weather but making sure we know he put out his forecast in August for this winter and how he feels it is trending weather bell's way. The next 3 months will tellExactly. Period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 JB said coldest nationwide over a 5-10 period.-- not regionally. (from today's video) Didn't mention anything about last two winters-- at least in todays video,, don't know what exactly he is comparing the 5-10 day period too...Guy takes a lot of heat-- many times from people who twist his words.. I think he was trying to bring up 1977 as an analog.AO went negative today. -0.3 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 I think he was trying to bring up 1977 as an analog.I believe his point was to illustrate the amount of real estate the potential arctic outbreak would cover instead of it begin more regional....hence, Feb 2015 was more regional. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Coldest nation for a 2 week.period starting january 10th. Yep he said it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 I honestly doubt the cold we see mid-month will be any more severe than the cold we saw back in 2012. I think it will be colder than that though.The cold wave will probably balance the month out and a lot of area will be close to normal, except near the Canadian border, which I expect to be above normal. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Jb seems like a great guy. Enthusiastic about weather but making sure we know he put out his forecast in August for this winter and how he feels it is trending weather bell's way. The next 3 months will tellHe's full of hype and a charlatan, enough said. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 He's full of hype and a charlatan, enough said.That is harsh...lay off the hator-aid...he's far from that if you even pay close attention to him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 He's full of hype and a charlatan, enough said.Now, if you were to say that about our own U.S. Gov't....now that is a different story... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Well said Tom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 I think Joe B. just gets carried away and give the long range a little too much credit at times. He's still a very good forecaster. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 @ Gosaints, I prefer to keep my Freedom... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 GFS even warmer this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010300/gfs_T850_us_25.png January 9th thats the amount of cold wrapped into a cutter.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Can't muster enough cold in Jan for a snowstorm yikes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 If our time to cash in is with that cutter we're in serious trouble. The storm after imo has east coast written all over it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010300/gfs_T850_us_25.png January 9th thats the amount of cold wrapped into a cutter.... Yeah, pathetic. That last storm had more cold, and this one is heading into some existing snowpack for much of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Yeah, pathetic. That last storm had more cold, and this one is heading into some existing snowpack for much of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes.Still think it.has a chance for some of us but after that one things get boring I think... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 another storm taking the perfect track for snow here and no cold air. ugh Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Still think it.has a chance for some of us but after that one things get boring I think...Exactly which is why I don't understand people calling these next two weeks super active around the sub forum save for MN. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Exactly which is why I don't understand people calling these next two weeks super active around the sub forum save for MN. Some of the snow lovers on this forum call a period active just because it looks like there's some cold air and some potential. Unfortunately, those don't always come together at an opportune time. I agree with both you and Gosaints that this potential for Friday/Saturday will be our only decent chance in the next couple weeks, but it looks likely it will be a waste and turn out to be a Grinch storm, destroying our snowpack before this seasonable cold snap comes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Canadian is nothing to get excited about either. Warm cutter and weak with the following storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Canadian is nothing to get excited about either. Warm cutter and weak with the following storm. I would say that has a lot of potential for you. I think the CMC has the right idea on the track. Storms like to cut underneath where there is a snowpack. Probably end up with a some mixed precip and snow along the front on Friday, especially over areas with snow cover. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 0z GFS ensembles still pretty much well south of op GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_0z/f144.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 06z GFS looks better for those out in NE... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 06z GFS looking better and very similar to the GGEM...southern Plains storm which forms out ahead of the arctic attack. It produces a monster App runner.This storm fits the 30-day cycle which was a dynamic storm system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 How'd the euro ensembles look, Tom? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 How'd the euro ensembles look, Tom?Still look good from NE to Wisco... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Started a separate storm thread for the Fri/Sat system... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 GFS is COLD in the longrange. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Storm after cutter is gone again on 12z GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Storm after cutter is gone again on 12z GFS.Doesn't surprise me...it'll be back...fits both the LRC and 30-day cycle... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Cold and snowy. Looks like a couple clippers as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Looks like east coast storm train kicks into high gear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 east cost may get a really nice storm track going Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 GFS is COLD in the longrange.Ya hey even it.inside of ten days. Only have to wait until hour 234 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2016 Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Ya hey even it.inside of ten days. Only have to wait until hour 234Did you even think you'd have temps below zero this month? I highly doubt it. It's coming. 00z Euro Day 9 drops -20C temps right over your neck of the woods under arctic HP. I'm sure you'll also have a decent snow cover around to produce some good radiational cooling. Heck, throw in Maxim as well. If Chicago has snow OTG when the cold snap hits, ORD may get close to ZERO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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